A lot of questions get asked about retirement so I thought this thread is a good place for this. I like to run retirement projections starting from Jan 1 2000, as that was about the peak of the dotcom bubble. Certainly the worst time to retire in a few generations. Probably the worst would be 1929, but that data is harder to find. The graph below starts with $1m (just a nice round number) in a 70%(US Equity Market)/30% (TBills for cashflows) portfolio, includes 5% annual withdraws from the portfolio, and annual rebalancing. The graph below shows on an inflation adjusted basis, that $1M is worth about the same today. The actual value of the portfolio went from $1m to $2.1m, even with withdraws (We have lived in some pretty good times).
Link to calculator below if you want to play around with it. Between the Dotcom bubble bursting and 2008-2009, it was a hard decade to keep that portfolio intact without panicking.
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Analyze and view portfolio returns, sharpe ratio, standard deviation and rolling returns based on historical asset class returns and the given asset allocation
www.portfoliovisualizer.com