Will I die with moose and sheep points?

[cedahm]

@cedahm and @LopeHunter I wonder if one could CORA, new Colorado Hunter's safety cards issued per year. Presumably if you were a NR that moved to CO and were interested in hunting you would enroll your kids in hunters safety when you got here. Would be interesting to see what those numbers look like.

I bet you would see the overall number increase 1980 relative to 2019, but the ratio to the population would be in decline.

PM me your Venmo and we can split the CORA fee. I would lay hefty odds that’s true but I agree it’s interesting. And as client-billable data analysis work is trending down, might as well do some for fun

Bottom line, we need to improve the well. I'm not sure about moose... we might be at or close to "peak moose".

I think we are almost there In CO. I think WY was at peak moose a couple decades ago and my long ago home state of MN was at peak moose when I was a kid. As big as they are they have a fragile existence.

 

[Old man bob]

Here in Az. I have 27 Sheep points going into next months draw. I will be 64 in Sept., There are I think 466 people ahead of me in points . 122 tags this year. 20% go to max points. Realistically I may never get it unless I live to 98 like My Dad did when He passed last year. I will pray for a miracle. I am not as Healthy as He was Good luck all in Your respective draws..............BOB.

 

[ccc23454]

I'm 32 and in good health. I currently have 5 points each for moose and sheep in Wyoming. I apply in the random every year (~0.01-1.5% odds) and earn another point for each for free when I don't draw.

Assuming I can do a sheep or moose hunt until I'm 65 or so, what are the chances those extra 33 points get me a tag without getting lucky in the random draw?

I am in your same boat so maybe i am overly optimistic but you will draw both and atleast 2 moose tags unless you are trying for one of the hardest to draw or something drastic happens. Wyoming is a little better at this than many states as our population isnt growning at same rates as other western states. Keep at it, with randoms and price of our points its ridicous not to. The random alone gives you better odds than a nonres just starting point game.

 

[406dn]

If anyone is curious about the statistics, the formula for drawing a tag in a certain number of years is 100%*(1-((100-odds of drawing)/100)^number of years). Now to do this you have to make assumptions about what your odds will be in future years, but you can get a rough idea.

For example, I can look and see that I have a 1% odds of drawing a bighorn sheep tag in the Missouri Breaks with 11 bonus points. I estimate that with the squared points system in Montana that will go up to about 3% in 10 years, so i'll use a 2% odds for an average.

Then the odds of drawing in 10 years would be 100%*(1-((100-2)/100)^10)=18%. Assuming an average draw odds of 3% over the next 20 years the odds become 100%*(1-((100-3)/100)^10)=45%.

I'm starting to wonder if I should start applying for a more difficult hunt that I could probably get in my lifetime like the Spanish Peaks or the Upper Madison Range which for 11 bonus points have draw odds of 3.5-4%. Let's say that the odds of one of them is 6% on average for the next 10 years. Then the odds of drawing in 10 years would be 100%*(1-((100-6)/100)^10)=46%. Assuming an average draw odds of 8% over the next 20 years the odds become 100%*(1-((100-8)/100)^10)=81%. Lots to think about when you start doing the math.

Bottom line is that a resident will likely get some of the less desirable hunts in their lifetime but might never get the more desirable ones like the Missouri River Breaks. The only sure way to go sheep hunting is to buy a $15-20k Dall's sheep hunt. The best bet for a Bighorn is to apply for one of the easier to draw hunts every single year, and to support the conservation organizations that work to increase the Bighorn population.

This is the strategy that I've used for the the nearing 40 years I've been in Montana. It is a balancing act for each individual. My decision was I would rather get the chance to hunt than bank on a unit that offered the best trophy prospects.

So my Moose strategy was to apply for a cow tag. That has worked out reasonably well, since I have drawn three times over the years.

When I was putting in for Mountain Goats I put in for the most difficult to hunt units that I thought was doable. I drew a tag in just a few years of trying.

For Bighorns, putting in for a less prestigious unit can double or triple a person's chance of getting a tag. That hasn't paid off yet,, but to my mind it's the right game plan.

Now of course,,, all of this depends on hunter behavior remaining as it has been. If large numbers of hunters decided to go with the strategy I have used,,, it would be back to square one.

 

[BrentD]

I find it interesting, in these discussions that no one, even for a minute, thinks about the amount of money spent on these ponzi schemes we play into. Is cost no object? Maybe a $15k Dall sheep in AK is actually cheaper.

I won't bother with ever applying for sheep, goats, or moose in the lower 48. And I'm done with elk after I cash in my current points.

 

[thusby]

Just remember:
If you lose gambling you are a degenerate.
If you win gambling you are a professional.

 

[406dn]

Since I have not applied out of state,, I can't say from first hand experience if the process is just a shake down scheme. But I doubt it is.

I view the process as a political solution to a situation where the demand FAR exceeds the demand. What would be FAR worse is if the tags went to the highest bidders. That would effectively shut out 99% of hunters. I suspect Montana could find offers of 25k for available Bighorn Rams. I doubt Moose or Goats would be nearly as expensive,, but they would be priced out of reach of most hunters.

I think the fairest way to do it would be a totally random draw with the usual resident/ non resident split. Then if you draw a tag,,, it's good for two years,, so that you could be both selective and successful. And then you are DONE for that species. Not that it will ever be conducted in a similar manner.

 

[madtom]

Just earned my sixth points for moose and sheep. One year closer to dying with them.

 

[appaloosa]

Just earned my sixth points for moose and sheep. One year closer to dying with them.

At least you won't die with mountain goat and bison points.

 

[Old man bob]

Madtom , I have a buddy ,A life long Resident of Casper Got drawn for Sheep at about 62 last year. Don't give up Yet . I am telling My self that at 64 here in AZ. with 27 points, and 466 People ahead of Me.......................BOB!

 

[JoltnJoe]

Yes