Why? CA hunting licenses over time.

[Lyfter1013]

2.1 MM to 400k (if accurate) is kinda starting to get into level of Bison IMHO.

You’re right if those numbers are correct it’s almost hard to believe honestly. I’m not sure how they pulled the data for those graphs but it certainly doesn’t seem explainable without having a clear cut reason behind it.

 

[sneakypete]

Here’s my input as a resident. One is poor to zero control of predator management for our deer herds! California needs to bite the Bullit and offer tags for mountain lions! Ever since they stopped hunting bears with dogs I doubt we ever reached bear take quota! Our best deer zones should move back to 4pt or better zones to grow better bucks. I tired to draw a special deer zone two years ago with 9points and didn’t, yet to buy a point it costs the same as a TAG for deer. So I still buy a point for deer, put in for a elk draw, same for sheep.......

 

[jryoung]

I have read that Calfire wants to do more controlled burns, but cannot get permission to due to the conflict with air quality requirements. Here is the web link to the location that Wllm got the graph from.
They talk a bit about logging and its effects on deer. For sure, forest management is important here.

I think we've finally turned this corner, they still have to deal with the ARB, but another big holdup was funding. Brown in his final couple years along with Newsom have pledged a lot more money for controlled burns, thinning and forest management in general. The political appetite is finally there after the number of massive fires this decade highlighted by the casualties in Paradise, and the sheer acreage burned this year.

I may be naive, or have the wrong colored glasses on, but between the tree mortality and millions of acres burned in just the past decade I'm hopeful for a very good decade, if not more of quality deer hunting in this state.

 

[SO7mm]

There's been some good input already regarding the decrease in deer numbers and how that must be having an effect on the license sales. It's still surprising to me the numbers have come down as much as they have. This is antidotal but duck hunting seems more popular than ever now. I was born in 1970 and have been on the delta my entire life. It seems like there's just as many and possibly more waterfowl hunters out there now than there's ever been. It makes sense because the waterfowl populations have been doing well since the declines of the 80's. There's also no shortage of opportunity if a guy wants to put in some work.

 

[Lyfter1013]

I think we've finally turned this corner, they still have to deal with the ARB, but another big holdup was funding. Brown in his final couple years along with Newsom have pledged a lot more money for controlled burns, thinning and forest management in general. The political appetite is finally there after the number of massive fires this decade highlighted by the casualties in Paradise, and the sheer acreage burned this year.

I may be naive, or have the wrong colored glasses on, but between the tree mortality and millions of acres burned in just the past decade I'm hopeful for a very good decade, if not more of quality deer hunting in this state.

I hope you are right jr unfortunately I have zero faith in this states government following through. Especially when there are so many people who will protest and who don’t understand how controlled burns and Forrest management are better for the environment and how this can prevent and contain larger fires from spreading when they do occur.

 

[jryoung]

There's been some good input already regarding the decrease in deer numbers and how that must be having an effect on the license sales.

This made me curious so I ran the numbers on resident first deer tag sales. It's a pretty good mirror, but deer tags just about flatline in the late 90's. Probably waterfowlers and upland hunters responsible for the continued lag in sales.




.

 

[jryoung]

I hope you are right jr unfortunately I have zero faith in this states government following through. Especially when there are so many people who will protest and who don’t understand how controlled burns and Forrest management are better for the environment and how this can prevent and contain larger fires from spreading when they do occur.

That's the biggest corner that has been turned, people are finally realizing that controlled burns are necessary, and that logging of public land typically doesn't mean clear-cut like it does on SPI.

 

[Lyfter1013]

That's the biggest corner that has been turned, people are finally realizing that controlled burns are necessary, and that logging of public land typically doesn't mean clear-cut like it does on SPI.

I really hope You’re right It’s what needs to happen. We will See over the next few years how it goes. I think another obstacle will be the fact that it is so overgrown out here it’s not a problem that will be fixed over night it’s going to take a lot of money and a lot of man hours to put a dent in neglect from the previous Decades.

Btw do you still live In Ca or did you get out of Ca?

 

[SO7mm]

I think we've finally turned this corner, they still have to deal with the ARB, but another big holdup was funding. Brown in his final couple years along with Newsom have pledged a lot more money for controlled burns, thinning and forest management in general. The political appetite is finally there after the number of massive fires this decade highlighted by the casualties in Paradise, and the sheer acreage burned this year.

I may be naive, or have the wrong colored glasses on, but between the tree mortality and millions of acres burned in just the past decade I'm hopeful for a very good decade, if not more of quality deer hunting in this state.

I hope you're right. I believe they're doing a lot more clearing as well. Most of my CA big game hunting has been to fill some time before we go out of state. The way tag acquisition is going in other states and the fact that I've got two kids that will be hunting soon I need to start getting better at deer and bear hunting hear.

 

[sneakypete]

There's been some good input already regarding the decrease in deer numbers and how that must be having an effect on the license sales. It's still surprising to me the numbers have come down as much as they have. This is antidotal but duck hunting seems more popular than ever now. I was born in 1970 and have been on the delta my entire life. It seems like there's just as many and possibly more waterfowl hunters out there now than there's ever been. It makes sense because the waterfowl populations have been doing well since the declines of the 80's. There's also no shortage of opportunity if a guy wants to put in some work.

Duck hunting is even harder to draw a top refuge!

 

[jryoung]

Btw do you still live In Ca or did you get out of Ca?

I'm just a transplant here, but here until retirement at a minimum, then it'll likely be dependent on where my son ends up.

 

[SO7mm]

Duck hunting is even harder to draw a top refuge!

Is that because of a decrease in spots or more people putting in?

 

[SO7mm]

This made me curious so I ran the numbers on resident first deer tag sales. It's a pretty good mirror, but deer tags just about flatline in the late 90's. Probably waterfowlers and upland hunters responsible for the continued lag in sales.




.View attachment 168641

View attachment 168642

Interesting. In general the 80's first year or two of the 90's were bad for ducks and duck hunters(short seasons, low bag limits, couldn't start until sunrise one year) which coincides with the plummet in licenses sold that decade. I think it went back to extended season and higher bag limits around 92/93 though we did have one or two split seasons after that. I wonder why the tag sales spiked in the early 90's? Maybe the end of the drought caused a bump in deer numbers.

 

[NECALI]

Probably everything said has an impact in the decline. In my opinion number one on the list is predators. And they’re getting worse every year. Also the late hunts in my opinion have hurt the numbers. Never had all the landowner late hunts and very few if any late hunts in the 70’s. Don’t know when the Goodale hunt started. Now the few deer that are left are hunted from August till December. It’s terribly sad that areas that used to have deer are now completely void of deer up here in NE CA. around Susanville. Oh there are still areas that hold deer, but it’s a small percentage compared to what it used to be.

 

[Mark1970]

Based on Jryoung's idea to look at deer tags, I went ahead and plotted other tags.



Also, since CA has more US military personnel than any other state, and almost certainly, many of those are transplants from other states, I plotted total military over time (could not find CA only data). Also I added DFW's deer population estimates in there.



I dont see any single smoking gun. It looks like a whole bunch of effects going on.
I guess looking at other states would give us a clue if this is really a CA state issue, or a national issue.

I tried to attach the file for others to play with, but the site wont let me attach a .xls

 

[Mark1970]

Nope.... does not seem to be a national issue.
Hunting licenses are on the rise nationally.

 

[Lyfter1013]

Based on Jryoung's idea to look at deer tags, I went ahead and plotted other tags.
View attachment 168678


Also, since CA has more US military personnel than any other state, and almost certainly, many of those are transplants from other states, I plotted total military over time (could not find CA only data). Also I added DFW's deer population estimates in there.

View attachment 168679

I dont see any single smoking gun. It looks like a whole bunch of effects going on.
I guess looking at other states would give us a clue if this is really a CA state issue, or a national issue.

I tried to attach the file for others to play with, but the site wont let me attach a .xls

Thanks for putting this together could you add in 2 and deer tag? Not sure it’ll tell you much but curious where those numbers are at?

 

[Mark1970]

Is that because of a decrease in spots or more people putting in?

I think more people putting in.
Some refuges had some partial closures due to not getting enough water, but you dont really see that in the duck validation data.

It feels like there are more duck hunters now, but I think in reality there are fewer, but they are trying harder.

 

[Mark1970]

Thanks for putting this together could you add in 2 and deer tag? Not sure it’ll tell you much but curious where those numbers are at?

Sure...

 

[jryoung]

Nope.... does not seem to be a national issue.
Hunting licenses are on the rise nationally.

View attachment 168687

Is that total license sales nationally? Might not be the best indicator as more and more people are applying throughout the country in several states. I know I pop into that chart around 2007. I know total hunter number have been steady (in general) since 2009-ish, but before that had a long history of declines.

With the increase in license sales this year I'm hopeful we came make bigger gains locally to get new hunters and anglers on board. Having more time to hunt and fish this year just may be enough to keep people going.

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