West coast salmon recovery

[SAJ-99]

You’re exactly right, that’s a huge one. Not just commercial fishing, also regulatory capture by corporate interests which can, and does, result in habitat destruction, pollution, unenforced regulations, hot water, no water, no fish passage, etc etc.

I guess my point was is we know how to fix a lot of the problems, just don't want to pay what it takes to do it.

 

[Hydrophilic]

I guess my point was is we know how to fix a lot of the problems, just don't want to pay what it takes to do it.

Yep. One of many examples of that is Idaho refusing fish passage at Hells canyon.

https://species.idaho.gov/wp-conten... Policy,licensing (2019 Settlement Agreement).

I really admired what Mike Simpson was trying to with the snake river dams. Heck, I really admire anyone who tries to do anything to help. I called this in the other week, big gas leak into this drain.

 

[Irrelevant]

I don't think fresh water habitat is even a blip on the problem. It's out in the salt. We need more (some?) enforcement out there

 

[R.K.]

I don't think fresh water habitat is even a blip on the problem. It's out in the salt. We need more (some?) enforcement out there

Problem is, the fishery advisory board for Alaska is appointed, and the majority of the seats represent factory trawlers. And trawling is the biggest problem.

Sure, there’s foreign vessels that operate there illegally, but the majority are owned and docked in Seattle. This problem could be solved rather quickly, but nobody really wants to deal with it.

This is leaving out the salmon flu issues in Fraser River/ BC from salmon farming adjacent to salmon staging areas, causing upwards of 90% pre-spawn wild fish mortality in some years.

 

[marshman]

I don't think fresh water habitat is even a blip on the problem. It's out in the salt. We need more (some?) enforcement out there

Many factors at play - but yes this is one of them for sure. Chinook bycatch by factory trawlers in AK waters is terrible.

 

[Hydrophilic]

I don't think fresh water habitat is even a blip on the problem. It's out in the salt. We need more (some?) enforcement out there

Respectfully, that’s not correct.

Thousands of miles of habitat all over the west are currently impeded by non passable dams and culverts.

Lab proven Salmon killing chemicals from runoff such as 6QQP degrades stream habitat and are lethal for salmon.

Low hot water in numerous spawning tribs due to ag withdrawals limits carrying capacity

Etc

The ocean and harvest absolutely matter. So do predation bottlenecks and other things we haven’t figured out yet. So does habitat. You can find systems where harvest has decreased and runs have still decreased. You can also find systems where millions have been wasted on habitat restoration projects with nothing to show for it. Look at the Coquille estuary restoration project and the chinook have only nosedived since. It’s believed the smallmouth bass have caused the declines, although I haven’t looked to see what kind of data they are looking at or if they are blaming.

You can find systems where habitat access has been restored and runs have demonstrably increased.

Each river has different problems and it’s incorrect to generalize by saying habitat loss isn’t a blip of the problem. I believe it’s death by 1000 cuts until the best available information tells us otherwise.

Being Frank: Habitat remains key to salmon recovery - Northwest Treaty Tribes

Being Frank is a column by Chairman Ed Johnstone of the Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission. As a statement from the…

nwtreatytribes.org

 

[Irrelevant]

Respectfully, that’s not correct.

You can find systems where habitat access has been restored and runs have demonstrably increased.

I would love to read about these, because I've never seen one.

I believe it’s death by 1000 cuts until the best available information tells us otherwise.

I should have said correctable freshwater. Yes, some freshwater habitat is impacted. But we have the Olympic Peninsula as a great test case that there are large ocean based impacts limiting salmon populations. It is prestine habitat, almost entirely within a NP, and yet we see sharp declines in salmonids.



I could go on. I have become rather hardened that freshwater salmon habitat "restoration" is the very definition of green washing. The industrial "restoration" complex cannot admit that tens of millions (hundreds of millions) of dollars of freshwater restoration projects have equated to didly squat. How has the restoration of the White Salmon or Elwha gone? How about all the millions of tons of large woody debris we've installed?

The greatest remaining wild steelhead runs in the Columbia are in rivers literally overflowing with predatory bass.

The USGS found similar results: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0289246

The aim of our study has been to look for evidence of the return on investment for the $9 billion restoration spending in the CRB over the past four decades. That return or impact would be expected in the form of increased “returns” of wild adult salmon and steelhead at Bonneville Dam. Our study does find evidence of changes in adult returns positively associated with contemporaneous changes in spending (lagged to reflect species life cycles), but these impacts also reflect commingling of restoration spending with spending on hatchery releases, the impacts of spending on hatchery fish survival, and the density dependence effects of hatchery releases. As a result, evidence of benefits to wild fish alone requires indirect approaches. To accomplish this, the model’s predicted adult returns (both hatchery and wild fish) attributed to both spending and hatchery releases are compared to independent estimates of returning hatchery fish based on hatchery survival estimates (smolt-to-adult ratios). The comparison finds the model-predicted levels of adult returns due to spending and hatchery releases do not exceed the survival-rate based estimates for hatcheries alone; this means we find no empirical evidence of an increase in wild fish abundance associated with restoration spending.

IMO the only two reasons we are still funding freshwater habitat projects are because the existing practitioners/implementers are financially benefited in doing so, and we don't know what else to do, it's pressing the easy button and saying "we're trying" without being held accountable for the results.

 

[Irrelevant]

I want salmon restoration to succeed as badly as anyone. But that means being critical.

https://units.fisheries.org/habitat/time-for-reflection-does-stream-restoration-work/

 

[Hydrophilic]

Salmon habitat restoration can definitely be green washing and pointless. That doesn’t therefore mean habitat isn’t important. You can not believe in salmon habitat restoration and still believe habitat is important. Because it is. Fish need cold clean water and spawning habitat. Fish need to get to spawning habitat. And that is still a major focus of tribes and conservation groups. Let’s ax the expensive estuary remodels and tree placement projects for now unless they can show us solid quantifiable data proving they have a positive impact.

Likewise, referencing the Olympic peninsula as if it’s a holy grail reference point for habitat not mattering for all west coast salmon, is a bit unfair and not representative of the unique challenges each watershed faces.

A lot of tribes and fisheries biologists say habitat, harvest, and climate change are the biggest known factors impeding salmon recovery. I agree with them until we have better data suggesting something else.

 

[Irrelevant]

Freshwater habitat is certainly important but it's not limiting, at least not in many places.

Likewise, referencing the Olympic peninsula as if it’s a holy grail reference point for habitat not mattering for all west coast salmon, is a bit unfair and not representative of the unique challenges each watershed faces.

But it is a neon sign pointing to the existence of something else, something out in the ocean.

A lot of tribes and fisheries biologists say habitat, harvest, and climate change are the biggest known factors impeding salmon recovery. I agree with them until we have better data suggesting something else.

Id argue we have the data to say it's not fresh water habitat or freshwater harvest. Climate change, maybe. But we've spent so little time and money trying to tease out the issues in the ocean that I'm not willing to concede to climate change, which is effectively out of our control, until we've thoroughly exhausted all other possibilities.

I want fleets of tomahawk armed drones patrolling the North Pacific and taking out Chinese and Russian factory ships.

 

[Goodfish]

Freshwater habitat is certainly important but it's not limiting, at least not in many places.


But it is a neon sign pointing to the existence of something else, something out in the ocean.


Id argue we have the data to say it's not fresh water habitat or freshwater harvest. Climate change, maybe. But we've spent so little time and money trying to tease out the issues in the ocean that I'm not willing to concede to climate change, which is effectively out of our control, until we've thoroughly exhausted all other possibilities.

I want fleets of tomahawk armed drones patrolling the North Pacific and taking out Chinese and Russian factory ships.

I think you are on the right track. Beyond factory trawlers I think there is credible evidence that the State of Alaska pumping out hundreds of millions of pink and chum hatchery fish is causing a problem with Kings and Coho. The fact that the Alaska Chinook population has crashed as well as the non-recovery of Olympic Peninsula fish on rivers that have never been dammed and have excellent spawning habitat lead me to focus on a problem at sea. The main populations of harvestable fish in the Columbia and Snake systems are from hatchery sources. The attack on hatchery fish as a way to propagate native fish has proven itself to be misguided just based on the math of a continued race to the bottom.

 

[atlas]

https://craigmedred.news/2026/01/22/china-wins/

Those “wild caught” pink salmon are exported to China to have their pin bones pulled by hand and then imported back to United States

 

[R.K.]

I think you are on the right track. Beyond factory trawlers I think there is credible evidence that the State of Alaska pumping out hundreds of millions of pink and chum hatchery fish is causing a problem with Kings and Coho. The fact that the Alaska Chinook population has crashed as well as the non-recovery of Olympic Peninsula fish on rivers that have never been dammed and have excellent spawning habitat lead me to focus on a problem at sea. The main populations of harvestable fish in the Columbia and Snake systems are from hatchery sources. The attack on hatchery fish as a way to propagate native fish has proven itself to be misguided just based on the math of a continued race to the bottom.

Thought it was hatchery pinks and sockeye? You know- the plankton eating species that live midwater, rather than the piscivorous species that live closer to the bottom with higher exposure to trawl nets and higher impact from the loss of yearling pollock (which has been proven as a primary food source for king/silver salmon)?

The decline in halibut as a co factor is pointing to something other than freshwater habitat.

 

[Irrelevant]

The decline in halibut as a co factor is pointing to something other than freshwater habitat.

The raping and pillaging of our oceans by factory trawlers.

 

[marshman]

I think you are on the right track. Beyond factory trawlers I think there is credible evidence that the State of Alaska pumping out hundreds of millions of pink and chum hatchery fish is causing a problem with Kings and Coho. The fact that the Alaska Chinook population has crashed as well as the non-recovery of Olympic Peninsula fish on rivers that have never been dammed and have excellent spawning habitat lead me to focus on a problem at sea. The main populations of harvestable fish in the Columbia and Snake systems are from hatchery sources. The attack on hatchery fish as a way to propagate native fish has proven itself to be misguided just based on the math of a continued race to the bottom.

This is true, all of it good write up.

 

[Goodfish]

Thought it was hatchery pinks and sockeye? You know- the plankton eating species that live midwater, rather than the piscivorous species that live closer to the bottom with higher exposure to trawl nets and higher impact from the loss of yearling pollock (which has been proven as a primary food source for king/silver salmon)?

The decline in halibut as a co factor is pointing to something other than freshwater habitat.

The wild sockeye return for Bristol Bay is expected to be lower this year but still phenomenal compared to the Lower 48. They predict a 29 million fish harvest quota after allowing for escapement. I have not dove into why UW has that prediction this year. I worked on that survey program for a few seasons many moons ago. Sockeye production in the lower 48 is a different story with excellent hatchery production driving returns primarily in Canada from the Okanagon area. High river temps seems to affect that one.

UW forecast predicts steep drop in 2026 Bristol Bay sockeye run - Alaska Story

Smaller runs of sockeye salmon are predicted for Bristol Bay in the 2026 fishing season, according to a University of Washington study.

thealaskastory.com

 

[Goodfish]

The wild sockeye return for Bristol Bay is expected to be lower this year but still phenomenal compared to the Lower 48. They predict a 29 million fish harvest quota after allowing for escapement. I have not dove into why UW has that prediction this year. I worked on that survey program for a few seasons many moons ago. Sockeye production in the lower 48 is a different story with excellent hatchery production driving returns primarily in Canada from the Okanagon area. High river temps seems to affect that one.

UW forecast predicts steep drop in 2026 Bristol Bay sockeye run - Alaska Story

Smaller runs of sockeye salmon are predicted for Bristol Bay in the 2026 fishing season, according to a University of Washington study.

thealaskastory.com

The history of the Bristol Bay sockeye runs is really fascinating. It helps having not only the prediction of the run, but then confirmation of the run size while the fish are still in the ocean and then monitoring of every tributary to count actual escapement before fishing takes place. It still takes some swings. Total opposite in the lower 48!

 

[Hydrophilic]

Freshwater habitat is certainly important but it's not limiting, at least not in many places.


But it is a neon sign pointing to the existence of something else, something out in the ocean.


Id argue we have the data to say it's not fresh water habitat or freshwater harvest. Climate change, maybe. But we've spent so little time and money trying to tease out the issues in the ocean that I'm not willing to concede to climate change, which is effectively out of our control, until we've thoroughly exhausted all other possibilities.

I want fleets of tomahawk armed drones patrolling the North Pacific and taking out Chinese and Russian factory ships.

I'd like to say I'd love to see that data, but that would be an enormous amount of data to look at, because it would take an enormous amount of that data to change the minds of many fisheries biologists and tribes (that I'm familiar with anyway) who believe a combination of habitat, harvest (including ocean), climate change, and more are largely responsible for declines, and in varying ways for each watershed, limiting factors for recovery. Not a single issue, all of them together.

Putah creek in California is a pure freshwater habitat restoration example with clear results linked to habitat restoration: record return of 2100 Chinook last year from an almost extinct run. In a nutshell they provided water, targeted spawning gravel placement, and floodplain reconnection. No need to go looking in the ocean for mysteries when we can take care of rivers on land and get results. There are probably hundreds, if not thousands, of similar degraded spawning tribs just like Putah creek all over the west.

There are tons of other examples to show freshwater habitat as one of the limiting recovery factors. It depends on what you define as success. Improving redd counts, even dramatically, in one section of river doesn't mean all of the Parr / smolt will survive the other problematic pinchpoints in the river.

Anyway, appreciate the conversation! Cheers.

 

[Irrelevant]

I'd like to say I'd love to see that data, but that would be an enormous amount of data to look at, because it would take an enormous amount of that data to change the minds of many fisheries biologists and tribes (that I'm familiar with anyway) who believe a combination of habitat, harvest (including ocean), climate change, and more are largely responsible for declines, and in varying ways for each watershed, limiting factors for recovery. Not a single issue, all of them together.

Putah creek in California is a pure freshwater habitat restoration example with clear results linked to habitat restoration: record return of 2100 Chinook last year from an almost extinct run. In a nutshell they provided water, targeted spawning gravel placement, and floodplain reconnection. No need to go looking in the ocean for mysteries when we can take care of rivers on land and get results. There are probably hundreds, if not thousands, of similar degraded spawning tribs just like Putah creek all over the west.

There are tons of other examples to show freshwater habitat as one of the limiting recovery factors. It depends on what you define as success. Improving redd counts, even dramatically, in one section of river doesn't mean all of the Parr / smolt will survive the other problematic pinchpoints in the river.

Anyway, appreciate the conversation! Cheers.

That's a problem.

You have massive meta data analysis like that usgs study I linked that very explicitly concludes that despite the hundreds of millions of dollars spent on fresh water habitat it hasn't equated to ANY additional wild fish, yet no one changes their minds.

Habitat restoration is akin to a religion for some people.

 

[atlas]

I'd like to say I'd love to see that data, but that would be an enormous amount of data to look at, because it would take an enormous amount of that data to change the minds of many fisheries biologists and tribes (that I'm familiar with anyway) who believe a combination of habitat, harvest (including ocean), climate change, and more are largely responsible for declines, and in varying ways for each watershed, limiting factors for recovery. Not a single issue, all of them together.

Putah creek in California is a pure freshwater habitat restoration example with clear results linked to habitat restoration: record return of 2100 Chinook last year from an almost extinct run. In a nutshell they provided water, targeted spawning gravel placement, and floodplain reconnection. No need to go looking in the ocean for mysteries when we can take care of rivers on land and get results. There are probably hundreds, if not thousands, of similar degraded spawning tribs just like Putah creek all over the west.

There are tons of other examples to show freshwater habitat as one of the limiting recovery factors. It depends on what you define as success. Improving redd counts, even dramatically, in one section of river doesn't mean all of the Parr / smolt will survive the other problematic pinchpoints in the river.

Anyway, appreciate the conversation! Cheers.

Mostly hatchery strays attracted by pulse flows. Some natural reproduction. California releases smolts at the Golden Gate and a variety of other places which results in high ocean abundance, while having relatively low hatchery return rates. This is because these fish stray like crazy.

Another thing about king salmon in California is that they don't go up to Alaska and the BC coast. Meaning that there is a lot more control in who is actually commercially fishing these fish... recently it's been closed entirely with a limited recreational fishery and a quota.

This is different than fish in say Washington, which can get caught in Washington, BC and Alaska. They also encounter trawlers which Sacramento river fish do not.