UT bonus point, worth the purchase?

[TheDudeAbides]

Eight points three years ago would put you squarely in front of the huge mass of applicants resulting from the species/application rule change which took place ~2009. A guy entering on the ground floor today is an entirely different ballgame. That is what so many overlook.

I do think the Utah system is reasonable. 50% to those with the most points and 50% bonus point. Separating the non resident and resident tags is also an advantage over up to 10% . There are hunts that someone will not draw on the ground floor Pahvant, Beaver, etc. There are hunts such as Fish Lake, Wasatch, and Manti that someone can or will draw in the next decade. It's all about your plan on attack. There are limited entry deer hunts that you could draw in the next decade. There are general deer hunts that you can draw in 0-3 years with a rifle. There are pronghorn units that can be drawn in the next decade.

As far OIL (Sheep, Bison, Moose, Goat) in the lower 48, they are all bad draw odds and it's all about getting lucky. Up to 6-10% in a combined pool kills your draw odds, because what you are seeing isn't real.

Example of 6 Bighorn tags for a unit in Idaho. Say 100 people apply (R75:NR25) , there will only be one NR tag. Overall it's three in fifty, but your probability is 1 in 100. So, to say it is better is deceitful. Anything below 10% probability to draw is a 90% probability to not draw, which is horrible IMO. Idaho license is 155 ish every year for bad draw odds for non residents. If you don't hunt it, that's all you get. It's close to the same cost of applying in Utah. So, it comes down to personal preference and personal finance.

You know if you look at Randy's system for hunting elk every year and set up your own system just like it or create your own, I'm sure you'll do just fine.

 

[The Hedgehog]

Reality hard to handle?

The reality is you can't win if you don't play. I play every year. You're too dumb to figure that part out.

 

[Carnage2011]

My wife just pulled one of the best archery elk tags in the state with 2 points. Based on all the doom and gloom of this post she probably shouldn't have wasted her money. But she did and now she's holding a great permit. If you want a chance to hunt you should apply. If you want to know for sure that you won't be hunting Utah then don't apply.

 

[Flatland Crusoe]

This is why Utah isn't worth chasing, a summary of limited entry elk tags and points for non residents until you get other states first.

More importantly here is an approximation of Limited Entry/Drawn First Choice non antlerless elk tags available to nonresidents each year.

Colorado-21,213
Wyoming- 9,800
Montana- 2,000
New Mexico- 948
Utah- 261
Nevada- 250
Arizona-220
Idaho- 133

Colorado had 72,000 apps and 21,000 first choice tags issued so they cycled every Hunter through every 3.5 years where Utah had 11,000 apps for 260 tags where it would take 43.4 years to cycle though every Hunter once in a draw system that has been only going for 25 years and it will only get worse. New Mexico which isn't that great cycles everyone through every 9.5 years or so.

 

[elkantlers]

 

[Zim]

Buzz, I also drew many tags I should not have statistically, such as New Hampshire moose, Nevada elk, etc. However, those were hunts with 1 in 100 draw odds. Not 1 in 10,000. You see those two extra zeros? That's what Utah offers. Just pointing that out. Paying money for odds like that is well into the realm of stupid money.

Have you personally drawn any tags with 1 in 10,000 odds?

 

[The Hedgehog]

This thread is about elk bonus points in Utah. What elk permit is 1:10,000 odds? let me help.. not one.

Take the hardest to draw, San Juan any weapon early hunt. It's like 1:600 after calculating extra chances by those with points.

Go from there.

 

[Zim]

The reality is you can't win if you don't play. I play every year. You're too dumb to figure that part out.

I see a lot of name calling from folks who don't post the reality of accurate statistics. It seems that's all they have to offer. I have played every year in ten select states, for 20 years. During that time I have figured out which are a good investment, and which are not. I sorely wish I'd never got involved in some, such as Oregon. I am simply trying to offer real world suggestions to the OP & other young guys before they get extorted into the Kool-aid schemes some of these states are brewing. You are aware Utah is the Google Scam Capital of the United States, correct? And Utah has by far the most corrupt wildlife organization SFW/MDF, who has a strangle hold on UTDOW, correct? And that they skim the greatest amount of trophy big game tags off the top for auction, correct? These are undeniable facts. If I were a young guy getting in on the ground floor, I would want to know all these things to make an informed decision.

But then they always have the option of following the Apply Apply Apply Apply Apply Apply Apply Apply crowd.

If you have some statistics to prove your point, such as Flatland Crusoe, then please share them with the OP & the rest of us.

http://www.mtbullypulpit.org/2012/06/pox-on-fox.html

 

[Zim]

This thread is about elk bonus points in Utah. What elk permit is 1:10,000 odds? let me help.. not one.

Take the hardest to draw, San Juan any weapon early hunt. It's like 1:600 after calculating extra chances by those with points.

Go from there.

Woah there! I was not the one who brought sheep, moose, goat points into the conversation! I was simply responding. Besides, any investor in Utah should be aware of those if he's considering plunking down the non-refundable license that allows him to add these in. Think of the OP.

 

[TheDudeAbides]

I see a lot of name calling from folks who don't post the reality of accurate statistics. It seems that's all they have to offer. I have played every year in ten select states, for 20 years. During that time I have figured out which are a good investment, and which are not. I sorely wish I'd never got involved in some, such as Oregon. I am simply trying to offer real world suggestions to the OP & other young guys before they get extorted into the Kool-aid schemes some of these states are brewing. You are aware Utah is the Google Scam Capital of the United States, correct? And Utah has by far the most corrupt wildlife organization SFW/MDF, who has a strangle hold on UTDOW, correct? And that they skim the greatest amount of trophy big game tags off the top for auction, correct? These are undeniable facts. If I were a young guy getting in on the ground floor, I would want to know all these things to make an informed decision.

But then they always have the option of following the Apply Apply Apply Apply Apply Apply Apply Apply crowd.

If you have some statistics to prove your point, such as Flatland Crusoe, then please share them with the OP & the rest of us.

http://www.mtbullypulpit.org/2012/06/pox-on-fox.html

Limited Entry Deer - North Slope and Kamas 100% draws for Non Residents and have 170+ Trophy Potential.

General Deer - All units guaranteed with 3 points on rifle. Units like Zion and Southwest desert have 180+ Potential and many have 170+ potential.

Limited Entry Elk - Cache North has 100% draw odds for muzzleloader with rut dates. It's not a legendary Utah Unit, but has 340+ potential. It is reasonable that if you started this year on the ground level putting in for Fish Lake, Manti, or Wasatch late hunts or archery hunts that would draw in the next 15 years. If you want to hunt the rut, then you will have to wait. To say it isn't worth your investment is just personal preference or opinion.

Pronghorn - North Slope was 100% archery draw odds. There are units like plateau and cache north rich that you could draw with minimal points.

OIL's - All are tough, but as a non resident it is all about getting lucky.

It comes down to what you want. If you want a rifle elk or rifle henry's deer, then you may have to wait a long time. You may also draw in the random 50% pool. Only 50% of the people at the top draw the tags and the other 50% are distributed randomly and each year you don't apply you get an additional chance to pull a low number.

 

[Biscuit Hunter]

More importantly here is an approximation of Limited Entry/Drawn First Choice non antlerless elk tags available to nonresidents each year.

Colorado-21,213
Wyoming- 9,800
Montana- 2,000
New Mexico- 948
Utah- 261
Nevada- 250
Arizona-220
Idaho- 133

Flatland,

Where are you getting these numbers? And what exactly are they supposed to represent? I know that in AZ there are way more than 220 bull elk tags available to NRs. There is a single unit that has 173 available for NRs. Are you saying that only 220 NRs drew their first choice tag? I suppose this is possible, but I doubt that it's true.

 

[The Hedgehog]

Zim, get our your checkbook and gamble...

You can't win if you don't play.

Let the sniveling begin..

http://www.arizonabiggamesuperraffle.com/
http://nvdreamtag.org/
http://fwp.mt.gov/hunting/licenses/all/supertag.html
https://wgfd.wyo.gov/hunting/super-tag
http://cpw.state.co.us/auctionrafflelicense
https://fishandgame.idaho.gov/content/superhunt
http://www.dfw.state.or.us/resources/hunting/auctions_raffles/

 

[Flatland Crusoe]

Flatland,

Where are you getting these numbers? And what exactly are they supposed to represent? I know that in AZ there are way more than 220 bull elk tags available to NRs. There is a single unit that has 173 available for NRs. Are you saying that only 220 NRs drew their first choice tag? I suppose this is possible, but I doubt that it's true.

What Arizona specifically called limited entry, but it varies by state. For Wyoming it was tags minus general tags, for CO it was number of NR first choice draws. I realize a general Arizona tag is going to be equivalent to a fair number of Colorado first season hunts. Basically trying to level the playing field of tags worth waiting for to see an average success much greater than the 20% or less you see with OTC elk tags.

In theory it represents really high opportunity tags available to non residents that require more than a point or two that are DIY tags. It was a pretty rough estimate because NM for instance that number is just NR non guided pool tags and Purchased tags are a big thing in NM.

The goal would be to compare the number of hunters in the points pool already and new hunters entering a given state pool annually against annual tags issued to assign a value to a new Hunter spending money on a given state compared to others.

None of the states are issuing more tags than new Preference Point/bonus applicants or people starting over at zero and that's what creates point creep. The point is too assess how bad the accumulation is an whether or not it's worth chasing it, or what the numerical means of picking the best states moving forward because most guys aren't gonna buy every state with elk points the first year.

The statistic about Utah that's really frightening is that the average odds normalized to to total points is that you draw limited entry 1 in 43 years and to get those odds you would have needed 6 points for the bonus points to get you to that level. That means if you get in this year it's probably going to be 10 years before the bonus points are working in your favor because the people ahead of you in line aren't clearing out and the points are creaping. Probably what it means is if you are 25 or 30 today you will apply in Utah for limited entry elk tags for the first time this year you will likely only hunt once if you pay every year.

 

[BuzzH]

Wyoming caps full priced elk tags at 7250 for NR's so I have no idea how you came up with 9,800 bull permits.

 

[Biscuit Hunter]

What Arizona specifically called limited entry.

Hmmm. I've never heard AZ specifically call anything "limited entry." Perhaps this number is in reference to NR tags available in alternative management units-- 1,9,10, and 23-- in which case your number would make sense. But to compare NR opportunity in those premium AZ units to first choice NR draws for all units in CO goes beyond comparing apples to oranges. It's more like comparing apples to orangutans.

 

[Flatland Crusoe]

Maybe the Colorado comparison is off but a state like AZ with 35k elk and a 10% NR cap managing for trophies isn't going to have nearly the same effect as Colorado with 270k elk, a 35% NR cap managing for opportunity to the point where it worth talking about them the same way. Sure more guys are applying to Colorado but they are putting out an order of magnitude more tags than Arizona too.

The question is simple, how many hunters are in line for the tags and how many are going out a year? These things really matter when you are starting from zero today.

The best way to think about preference points/bonus points is like leaving for a commute in a city with bad traffic. You might leave 10 minutes later than someone else as traffic is building from the same and get to the same location 30 minutes later instead of 10 minutes because there was more congestion because the roads had hit capacity.

 

[TheDudeAbides]

Maybe the Colorado comparison is off but a state like AZ with 35k elk and a 10% NR cap managing for trophies isn't going to have nearly the same effect as Colorado with 270k elk, a 35% NR cap managing for opportunity to the point where it worth talking about them the same way. Sure more guys are applying to Colorado but they are putting out an order of magnitude more tags than Arizona too.

The question is simple, how many hunters are in line for the tags and how many are going out a year? These things really matter when you are starting from zero today.

The best way to think about preference points/bonus points is like leaving for a commute in a city with bad traffic. You might leave 10 minutes later than someone else as traffic is building from the same and get to the same location 30 minutes later instead of 10 minutes because there was more congestion because the roads had hit capacity.

It depends on the unit. Unit 2 in Colorado with a 100% preference point system is a unit that you probably won't draw starting on the ground floor today.

You can identify units in all states regardless of the system, that the numbers are not in your favor to draw. Utah and Nevada just have more of them.

You can identify units in all states regardless of the system that you can draw tags in with minimal years of applying.

I drew a late rifle elk tag this year with 7 points after striking out in Arizona and New Mexico. The unit only gave away 3 NR permits. 2 to the random draw and 1 to the person with the most points. Nevada is pending and I bought points in Colorado. Drawing in Utah means, I won't put in for Idaho. It's part of a plan to pick up a NR tag every year to plan a vacation into somewhere that I wouldn't go otherwise.

It also contributes the wildlife in those states.

 

[Zim]

You can't win if you don't play.

http://www.arizonabiggamesuperraffle.com/
http://nvdreamtag.org/
http://fwp.mt.gov/hunting/licenses/all/supertag.html
https://wgfd.wyo.gov/hunting/super-tag
http://cpw.state.co.us/auctionrafflelicense
https://fishandgame.idaho.gov/content/superhunt
http://www.dfw.state.or.us/resources/hunting/auctions_raffles/

I don't do 1 in 10,000 raffles like these. For me, most lotteries I put in for are gambles enough. But you go right ahead and eat your heart to buy all the chances you like if you feel like it. I'm wondering why you feel a need to call people names and post BS comments about folks who's opinions on a topic simply don't chime with yours? Really?

There's nothing wrong with being in your "apply aimlessly" crowd. More power to you. But the OP has a valid question and your mentality is clearly not in his agenda. So why do you try to ram it down his throat? He's questioning if it's a good value to get in on Utah's draw from the ground level. Really I don't think he's looking for "apply aimlessly" as a constructive answer.

Let your sniveling begin.......

 

[schmalts]

If you can only afford to apply in some of the states, UT should be bottom of that list. If you can afford them all, have at it.

 

[The Hedgehog]

Zim, I would be disappointed to see you post about something other than some tags you didn't draw again, or state drawings that are such a scam.