Honestly nothing in the current situation IMHO is anything new or different than any war we've been a party.
Not sure how you resolve the conflict, part of me wonders if a peace deal involves giving Russia some of Ukraine and then giving Ukrainians nukes.
Kinda think that might be the move with Taiwan... I mean that is essentially how China and Russia handled North Korea v. US
I think that first sentence is my concern. Numerous instances of proxy wars over the last 60 years escalating tensions between nuclear powers, and numerous instances of nuclear holocaust being averted by the skin of our teeth - either overtly or via errors in information. Either way, the magical thinking I refer to is the idea that Bayesian Inference against the last 60 years can meaningfully guide us through the next 60, when a desperate world leader could either snap or make an honest error in the assessment of a situation that reduces countries (civilization?) to ash. This includes North Korea and is where I become uncertain. I can see the argument that a country having nukes is a great deterrent to their destruction and in fact the most effective one. I totally admit it's the one that points to actual history. But, I can also
imagine a future historian discussing the near end of civilization that occurred sometime in the future to us that looks at the proliferation of nuclear weapons - the literal acquisition of more and more separate contingents having them - as obviously being an act that increased the likelihood of their use. Increasing the amount of countries that have nukes, a case could be made that we are quite literally pissing on a salient theory of probability.
The Sudetenland analogy falls short to me. What would Europe look like today - what would the world's response have been - if the Nazi's had nukes? I think the answer is unsatisfying.
There's convincing analysis out there that our engagement in Ukraine and our contribution to the effort has exceeded a threshold that has unsatisfactorily weakened our capability in a theatre that is far more meaningful to us, that being the Asia-Pacific region. If China, as they allude to, will invade Taiwan, or in a related effort establishes a shipping blockade that would absolutely effect American interests, we will have some tough decisions on how to engage with another nuclear power.
I'm not posting this podcast and realistically thinking people who disagree with me should listen, but if you were interested, for me it really made me think.
I think nukes make our deeply held and may be even primal paradigms for good guys and bad guys and justice somewhat irrelevant in some discussions. I think many folks, including myself, have a gut reaction to reject that. I am convinced that our brains, and the stories we tell about right and wrong, fall short in navigating such situations because comeuppance may be off the table.