Ukraine / Russia

[Deleted member 28227]

. The people there over 50 years old think they are Russians.

Soviet maybe, the current conflict is like part E in a war for autonomy that has been going on for hundreds of years.

They fought Catherine, they fought Lenin, and they were always a separate republic in the USSR.

They have a distinct language and culture.

We have chosen to support them military, but the fight was theirs and would have happened with or without us.

My 2 cents the US needs to decide if we are in fact the world police or not and if not then we need to allow counties to act in their own best interests which means having nuclear weapons.

 

[BrentD]

Soviet maybe, the current conflict is like part E in a war for autonomy that has been going on for hundreds of years.

They fought Catherine, they fought Lenin, and they were always a separate republic in the USSR.

They have a distinct language and culture.

We have chosen to support them military, but the fight was theirs and would have happened with or without us.

My 2 cents the US needs to decide if we are in fact the world police or not and if not then we need to allow counties to act in their own best interests which means having nuclear weapons.

Being the "world police" implies we weigh in on every issue/conflict. Indeed we do not, and never have. We weigh in on the conflicts that affect us most strongly whether that effect is direct or indirect. This is definitely one we need to weigh in on as we have. Personally, I would say, so far, so good.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Being the "world police" implies we weigh in on every issue/conflict. Indeed we do not, and never have. We weigh in on the conflicts that affect us most strongly whether that effect is direct or indirect. This is definitely one we need to weigh in on as we have. Personally, I would say, so far, so good.

"Real" police pick and choose too.

 

[BrentD]

"Real" police pick and choose too.

Not so much. Not nearly so much, and it's not considered good policing when they do.

 

[Straight Arrow]

Being the "world police" implies we weigh in on every issue/conflict. Indeed we do not, and never have. We weigh in on the conflicts that affect us most strongly whether that effect is direct or indirect. This is definitely one we need to weigh in on as we have. Personally, I would say, so far, so good.

Anyone ever heard of "national security" or "global strategic influence"?

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Being the "world police" implies we weigh in on every issue/conflict. Indeed we do not, and never have. We weigh in on the conflicts that affect us most strongly whether that effect is direct or indirect. This is definitely one we need to weigh in on as we have. Personally, I would say, so far, so good.

I think there has been a big change in our foreign policy and that pivot is having effects and it means other countries need to re-examine their status-quo… which I think they are

 

[BrentD]

I think there has been a big change in our foreign policy and that pivot is having effects and it means other countries need to re-examine their status-quo… which I think they are

Well, that's pretty much a given coming from the pro-Putin, isolationism that was Trumps foreign policy (or lack thereof).

 

[VikingsGuy]

I think a huge swing is happening. We are finally setting aside a 50 yr old attempt to bring china to a modern democracy via economic engagement and are now beginning to roll out the Cold War soviet focused playbook. Given the economic power of China, I am not convinced the old way will get it done this century. Also, I believe we are slowly moving to a new approach to a "strong NATO", which is moving from, "don't worry, the US will do all the heavy lifting", to a "we may be your nuclear umbrella, but it is time for European democracies to foot their security on the ground." Third, we are reducing our focus on the Middle East. Frankly, and with benefit of hindsight, all three pivots should have started 25 years ago.

 

[Nameless Range]

Covid came from nature.
The covid vaccine stopped the virus dead in its tracks by halting transmission (and was the safest vaccine ever made)
A rogue Ukrainian militia probably blew up Nord Stream. The USA or NATO allies had no involvement.


Cigarettes don’t cause cancer.
Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.
The Tuskegee experiments never happened.
There’s nothing even questionable about the deaths of JFK or Jeffery Epstein.
The internment of Japanese-American citizens under FDR wasn’t racist and was a calculated and intelligent national security move.

Did I mention that the Taliban have been defeated and could never take Kabul from the superior equipped afghan army?

When thinking of a list of narratives such as those listed above, and how in hindsight it’s easy to say we should know better or at least be skeptical, I think of something else. The other day I heard someone talk about how we may also think of those narratives that were genuinely believed and were wrong and now our world is different.

-People would never hijack planes and crash them into buildings .

-In 2007 there is little to no volatility, and in fact nothing is a safer bet, than the housing market.

-It’s been generations since a pandemic brought countries to their knees so let’s, functionally anyway, not prepare for it.

-etc

Not hard at all for me to imagine a future where we look back at such a list of black swan events and shake our head at the narratives:

-Proxy wars with nuclear powers always work out

-The more distinct contingents that have nuclear weapons in this world, the safer the world is

Throw in a future where, due to the obvious trajectory of AI and media -you, me, world leaders -will not be able to discern truth from fake - whether it be photo, video, or audio.

It’s not hard to imagine that we are approaching a crisis of narrative, and thus a crisis of response. Particularly in situations where response must be immediate.

We are running out of time.

 

[TOGIE]

When thinking of a list of narratives such as those listed above, and how in hindsight it’s easy to say we should know better or at least be skeptical, I think of something else. The other day I heard someone talk about how we may also think of those narratives that were genuinely believed and were wrong and now our world is different.

-People would never hijack planes and crash them into buildings .

-In 2007 there is little to no volatility, and in fact nothing is a safer bet, than the housing market.

-It’s been generations since a pandemic brought countries to their knees so let’s, functionally anyway, not prepare for it.

-etc

Not hard at all for me to imagine a future where we look back at such a list of black swan events and shake our head at the narratives:

-Proxy wars with nuclear powers always work out

-The more distinct contingents that have nuclear weapons in this world, the safer the world is

Throw in a future where, due to the obvious trajectory of AI and media -you, me, world leaders -will not be able to discern truth from fake - whether it be photo, video, or audio.

It’s not hard to imagine that we are approaching a crisis of narrative, and thus our crisis of response. Particularly in situations where response must be immediate.

We are running out of time.

the one i keep thinking and wondering about is "no way would two nuclear powers go toe to toe, dragging the world into a new world war, that's ridiculous, the paradigms have changed"

 

[88man]

Dame right someone will push the button when their back is against the wall. Tell lies about them> nah. Threaten them Nah.

 

[MTGomer]

When I was younger I was probably more conservative than I am now.
However, I’ve always had my eyes pretty open to the corruption of the military industrial complex and how our politicians get us into war for $ and not for freedom, liberty, apple pie, hot dogs and booty cheeks in denim shorts.
I used to view foreign policy as one of the few redeeming qualities of the left side of the isle.
Now, our country basically has a uniparty when it comes to foreign policy and the media propaganda outlet for war. The left has gone to the right side of the isle, for the most part, while a handful of those on the right have taken up the positions formerly held by the left.

It wasn’t pro-Putin isolationism until the latter happened.

 

[BrentD]

I think a huge swing is happening. We are finally setting aside a 50 yr old attempt to bring china to a modern democracy via economic engagement and are now beginning to roll out the Cold War soviet focused playbook. Given the economic power of China, I am not convinced the old way will get it done this century. Also, I believe we are slowly moving to a new approach to a "strong NATO", which is moving from, "don't worry, the US will do all the heavy lifting", to a "we may be your nuclear umbrella, but it is time for European democracies to foot their security on the ground. Third, we are reducing our focus on the Middle East. Frankly, and with benefit of hindsight, all three pivots should have started 25 years ago.

I'd like to think you are right. Hard to know though since foreign policy is not really a thing so much as a feeling, hunch, emotion, or heck if I know. But it's not tangible and not quantifiable. But it is definitely there, nonetheless.

 

[Gus Chiggins]

Or down the road while the big powers are engaging in a cold war nuclear deterrent chess match, the first one to push the button might be N Korea or Iran

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Well, that's pretty much a given coming from the pro-Putin, isolationism that was Trumps foreign policy (or lack thereof).

It’s changed a lot since Bush I.

Or down the road while the big powers are engaging in a cold war nuclear deterrent chess match, the first one to push the button might be N Korea or Iran

Yeah and the big powers are changing, India has a nuclear triad with nuclear powered ballistic subs and ICBMs.

Same with China.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Great . . . an unelected international agency with no army has unilaterally declared that there can be no negotiated settlement to resolve this crisis. Good grief.

Russia’s Vladimir Putin Faces Arrest Warrant by International Court

International Criminal Court’s move is connected to the forced deportation of children from Ukraine.

www.wsj.com

 

[noharleyyet]

Great . . . an unelected international agency with no army has unilaterally declared that there can be no negotiated settlement to resolve this crisis. Good grief.

Russia’s Vladimir Putin Faces Arrest Warrant by International Court

International Criminal Court’s move is connected to the forced deportation of children from Ukraine.

www.wsj.com

Does the US recognize the ICC?

There is a legal body specifically set up to prosecute cases of genocide, war crimes and other serious international crimes. It's the International Criminal Court, or ICC. But here's the rub. The U.S. does not recognize the jurisdiction of this legal body.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Does the US recognize the ICC?

There is a legal body specifically set up to prosecute cases of genocide, war crimes and other serious international crimes. It's the International Criminal Court, or ICC. But here's the rub. The U.S. does not recognize the jurisdiction of this legal body.

Nope, neither does Russia (or China). But how does a settlement over Ukraine work if Putin will be arrested on sight in almost every every other country in the world. It makes it a “win and write the history, or lose and be imprisoned moment for Putin”. This is performative silliness and not helping.

 

[noharleyyet]

I'm more than a little concerned about interactions between 30 million dollar drones and Russian SU-27 fighters.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I'm more than a little concerned about interactions between 30 million dollar drones and Russian SU-27 fighters.

Frankly, today I am more worried about dumping Dalvin Cook’s salary by 4pm, but you do you