Ukraine / Russia

[Nick87]

Fact Sheet on U.S. Security Assistance for Ukraine | The White House

President Biden today announced an additional $800 million in security assistance to Ukraine, bringing the total U.S. security assistance committed to

www.whitehouse.gov

If it would've timed out a little better we could have taken everything from the middle east that we left there to Ukraine, oh well I guess. Maybe we could ask the Taliban to to take it back to Ukraine for us.

 

[noharleyyet]

What kind of oil slick does that leave?

 

[Rhcuam]

Russia still has a lot of fighting ahead of them to control these areas. They have been trying for the last week and have made little, to no, progress.

True. But by doing this I think they will alleviate some of the supply chain issues they were having on their blitzkrieg attack.

Ukraine is being greatly assisted by the amount of arms and seemingly endless supply of cash coming into the country. It’ll be interesting to see if this continues now that Russia falls back to what was considered by most as disputed territory already.
Hopefully we can wean Ukraine off the teat of America taxpayer dollars funding their war very soon.

 

[Jigginjakescharters]

putin prices

 

[MinnesotaHunter]

True. But by doing this I think they will alleviate some of the supply chain issues they were having on their blitzkrieg attack.

Ukraine is being greatly assisted by the amount of arms and seemingly endless supply of cash coming into the country. It’ll be interesting to see if this continues now that Russia falls back to what was considered by most as disputed territory already.
Hopefully we can wean Ukraine off the tea of America taxpayer dollars funding their war very soon.

That is true. It will be interesting to see if they can recover their supply chains and if any of these forces they are repositioning will be worth a shit. The units up around Kiev took a serious beating. I would guess morale is in the toilet.

IMO, I think the west smells Putin's blood in the water and are looking to hand him his ass. I think the 800M supports that. You are also seeing more transparency in western support for UKR; which I also read as telling. Unless circumstances really changed, I doubt the west will ever put boots on the ground, but I think as long as the UKR is willing to fight, they will support them.

Who is most people. I think only Russia and their allies (who probably really couldn't give a crap) think they have a legitimate claim on the Donbas and Crimea. Hell Russia signed the treaty acknowledging Ukrainian borders/sovereignty back in 1994.

 

[Dave N]

and Russia threatening to move nukes close to their border with Finland rings hollow and I dont believe that threat will stop Finland and Sweden from joining.

If I read correctly somewhere else, they already HAVE nukes within about 100 miles of the border. 100 miles, 10 miles. Not much difference in flight times/reaction times.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Ukraine is being greatly assisted by . . . seemingly endless supply of cash coming into the country.

I don't have the specific numbers, but my educated guess is that Europe is sending Russia more cash for gas/oil than they and the US are sending to Ukraine -- if the war is won with money, Russia will win.

 

[BigHornRam]

I don't have the specific numbers, but my educated guess is that Europe is sending Russia more cash for gas/oil than they and the US are sending to Ukraine -- if the war is won with money, Russia will win.

Why Are Europe’s Biggest Commodity Traders Still Dealing With Russian Oil? | OilPrice.com

As much of the world speaks out against Russia’s war in Ukraine and nations ban Russian oil and gas, some of Europe’s biggest commodity traders seem to have missed the memo

oilprice.com

 

[Rhcuam]

But the sanctions. Lol

 

[SAJ-99]

I don't have the specific numbers, but my educated guess is that Europe is sending Russia more cash for gas/oil than they and the US are sending to Ukraine -- if the war is won with money, Russia will win.

You just can’t flip that switch off without crashing the entire global economy. Unfortunate, but reality. The world needs that carbon-based energy. But the sanctions are still crushing the Russian economy. This war can’t last long because Russian economy can’t endure this pain for very long. The longer it goes the worse it gets. China might like cheap oil but doesn’t want the stigma of backing a loser, which it looks like Russia will be given the current state of the war.

 

[VikingsGuy]

But the sanctions. Lol

Sanctions are great for virtue signaling. I'm still waiting for an example where sanctions resulted in successful and agreeable regime change - it is a failed approach to international dispute resolution, but in a nuclear-armed world it is hard to find good options.

 

[VikingsGuy]

You just can’t flip that switch off without crashing the entire global economy. Unfortunate, but reality. The world needs that carbon-based energy. But the sanctions are still crushing the Russian economy. This war can’t last long because Russian economy can’t endure this pain for very long. The longer it goes the worse it gets. China might like cheap oil but doesn’t want the stigma of backing a loser, which it looks like Russia will be given the current state of the war.

I get the "why", I was just countering the narrative that Ukraine is flowing in more money from the west than Russia. Frankly, Germany is either going to fundamentally re-write their economy in a 36 month crash course or become a vassal state for Putin - they made their bed and now they will either remake it or lie in it.

As for Russia's economic suffering. The last 60 years have made it abundantly clear - dictators happily allow their people to starve rather than surrender to foreign pressure. Sanctions may be cutting into the golf game of the oligarchs but it is clearly not crippling the ability to wage horrifying (even if not very effective) war.

 

[406dn]

Given the lack of clear risk free solutions, I think the west and Ukraine are doing as well as anyone could have foreseen.

Russia has been shown to be pretty inept, thou brutal as a military power. Their flagship is now limping away from the action.

If the military aid to Ukraine continues or increases, Russia will not prevail in the end. I think NATO can sense that the Russian military can be battered very severely.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Given the lack of clear risk free solutions, I think the west and Ukraine are doing as well as anyone could have foreseen.

Russia has been shown to be pretty inept, thou brutal as a military power. Their flagship is now limping away from the action.

If the military aid to Ukraine continues or increases, Russia will not prevail in the end. I think NATO can sense that the Russian military can be battered very severely.

Agree with much of this, but let's not underestimate the Russian ability/willingness to throw endless cannon fodder at an enemy - as wonderful as Ukraine's performance has been, it has been less than 60 days. If Russia chooses to grind for 3 years, Ukraine will fall without NATO tanks and planes engaging.

 

[406dn]

We won't know how it ends...until it does. Clearly, nothing has gone as Russia surmised. Their troop morale has to be horrible.

Imagine you are a 19 year old Russian soldier, amongst a squadron of other men of similar age and background. All of them realize Putin is willing to run them thru a grinder, with nothing in it for them. I suspect all of them are trying as best they can to not have their life end before it really begins.

 

[VikingsGuy]

We won't know how it ends...until it does. Clearly, nothing has gone as Russia surmised. Their troop morale has to be horrible.

Imagine you are a 19 year old Russian soldier, amongst a squadron of other men of similar age and background. All of them realize Putin is willing to run them thru a grinder, with nothing in it for them. I suspect all of them are trying as best they can to not have their life end before it really begins.

Can they go to Canada

 

[MinnesotaHunter]

As for Russia's economic suffering. The last 60 years have made it abundantly clear - dictators happily allow their people to starve rather than surrender to foreign pressure. Sanctions may be cutting into the golf game of the oligarchs but it is clearly not crippling the ability to wage horrifying (even if not very effective) war.

I think Russia is a little different. They have tried, and probably hope to resume, being a part of the global economy. 30 plus years ago it was much easier to practice isolationism.

Look at Aeroflot. Their jets have been grounded in Russia or elsewhere, and for the most part have deferred all maintenance. It could be years or a decade to recover from this grounding. I am guessing there will be many more less obvious examples of how this is corroding their capital.

 

[406dn]

Can they go to Canada

I bet they'd like to...even if in January.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I think Russia is a little different. They have tried, and probably hope to resume, being a part of the global economy. 30 plus years ago it was much easier to practice isolationism.

In speaking with my Russian colleagues over the last several months, I think there are three groups with differing aspirations (to vastly oversimplify 140 million people).

The first group is a highly educated and western-centric "management class" who wish to fully engage the global economy and liberal social order, either as a willing global partner or even as far as participating in an expansion of the EU. They hold an important place in Russian society, but do not have the power of the Putin/oligarch/military "ruling class", nor do they have the population size of the lesser-educated, more internally facing "traditional" Russian. They have little interest in the past glory of Peter the Great or Stalin, but also seem to have little leverage over government policy.

The second group is the Putin/oligarch/military "ruling class". They favor an autocratic government where they sit on the top of the social order. They want to fully enjoy the luxury of the west but don't want "western perspectives" to seep into the population in a way that would undercut their special status. Some buy into the PtG/Stalin narrative and some don't - but they all love the power and status they now have under the current dictatorship. This group is in the best place to displace Putin if enough choose to reject the PtG/Stalin narrative and just focus on the chrony politics/wealth part of their authoritarian govt. This would be good for Ukraine, but would do little to help normal Russians.

The third group is the lesser-educated, more internally facing traditional working-class Russian. As in many cultures/nations, they are facing daily challenges that make it easy to fall under the influence of "blame the other" and "seize your former glory that you are being denied" type rhetoric. By default, they view the disruption of the 90's as a very bad thing and will accept a quasi-dictator, "as long as the trains run on time." This group for now generally buys into the Putin Propaganda - and it will take some time for disillusionment to set in (think Russia/Afghan, US/Vietnam, US-Afghan type timelines at best). They have the population numbers to force change, but it will take many bad years for that to start to show itself - no quick win to be expected here, despite wishful thinking about bad Ukraine news being a match.

Just as in the Arab Spring and the wishful thinking of those pushing the removal of Saddam, I believe the highly educated western influencers over-index the view that "average Joe" Russian (or Arab) is demanding a pivot to the west and a few weeks of bread lines will turn the tide in a way we will like.

 

[406dn]

I guess the flagship is no longer limping away from the battle. Russia announced it has sunk into the Black Sea.

The best spin for Russia is that the repair costs have been greatly reduced.