Ukraine / Russia

[Randi]

If I read correctly somewhere else, they already HAVE nukes within about 100 miles of the border. 100 miles, 10 miles. Not much difference in flight times/reaction times.

Thank you Dave, I had read that also which is why I said their nuclear threat, rings hollow. I can not help but wonder if Finland and Sweden do join Nato ( and I think they will ) if Russia will regret invading Ukraine . IMHO, they probably already do. I am sure they thought it would go a lot easier than it has.

Given the lack of clear risk free solutions, I think the west and Ukraine are doing as well as anyone could have foreseen.

Russia has been shown to be pretty inept, thou brutal as a military power. Their flagship is now limping away from the action.

If the military aid to Ukraine continues or increases, Russia will not prevail in the end. I think NATO can sense that the Russian military can be battered very severely.

Far more inept than I thought they would be when it started. Reminded me of the movie we had to watch and give a report on in college. Dr Zhivago. That entire "Russian" movie was shot in Finland and Spain, as Russia would not allow the movie to be shot in Russia

We won't know how it ends...until it does. Clearly, nothing has gone as Russia surmised. Their troop morale has to be horrible.

Imagine you are a 19 year old Russian soldier, amongst a squadron of other men of similar age and background. All of them realize Putin is willing to run them thru a grinder, with nothing in it for them. I suspect all of them are trying as best they can to not have their life end before it really begins.

I agree.

However, I was not yet born during the Viet Nam war, but from what I have read, we had a few 19 year olds that resisted volunteering for that conflict

 

[VikingsGuy]

I guess the flagship is no longer limping away from the battle. Russia announced it has sunk into the Black Sea.

The best spin for Russia is that the repair costs have been greatly reduced.

See #2432

 

[VikingsGuy]

Thank you Dave, I had read that also which is why I said their nuclear threat, rings hollow. I can not help but wonder if Finland and Sweden do join Nato ( and I think they will ) if Russia will regret invading Ukraine . IMHO, they probably already do. I am sure they thought it would go a lot easier than it has.

I feel that 60 days in is too early to feel comfortable with the "energized NATO" narrative. In six months we could easily see a Marine Le Pen led France lessen interest in a strong NATO and Ukraine sanctions, and a Germany that will not dismantle its economic platform just to save Ukraine - both of which would mean NATO has its only energized membership being small eastern countries most Americans can't find on a map begging the US to be their protector - not an improvement in the big picture if this comes to pass. I am not predicting this outcome, just saying it has to be on the short list of plausible outcomes.

 

[406dn]

See #2432

As my father would say... I was a day late and a dollar short.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

See #2432

The Russian Cruiser ‘Moskva’ Dominates The Black Sea

The Russian navy cruiser Moskva by far is the most powerful warship in the Black Sea. If Russian President Vladimir Putin orders his troops to widen their war in Ukraine, Moskva, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, undoubtedly would lead the naval assault.

www.forbes.com

Interesting article in Jan touting the Moskva as a big deal...

40 year amortization aside seems like a real pricey asset to lose... Billion at least?

 

[Randi]

I feel that 60 days in is too early to feel comfortable with the "energized NATO" narrative. In six months we could easily see a Marine Le Pen led France lessen interest in a strong NATO and Ukraine sanctions, and a Germany that will not dismantle its economic platform just to save Ukraine - both of which would mean NATO has its only energized membership being small eastern countries most Americans can't find on a map begging the US to be their protector - not an improvement in the big picture if this comes to pass. I am not predicting this outcome, just saying it has to be on the short list of plausible outcomes.

Thank you and if you dont mind would you please answer this question, which was asked today..

Why did Ukraine not join Nato ?

Also, back to your above post. Even if everything you say comes to pass, do you think Finland and/or Sweden will join Nato, regardless of what Germany and France might do, hypothetically ? Thanks

 

[VikingsGuy]

Thank you and if you dont mind would you please answer this question, which was asked today..

Why did Ukraine not join Nato ?

Also, back to your above post. Even if everything you say comes to pass, do you think Finland and/or Sweden will join Nato, regardless of what Germany and France might do, hypothetically ? Thanks

It is a messy 25 yr long dance as the "west", former Soviet states, and Russia have navigated the fallout of the collapse of the Soviet Union and its Eastern European vassal states. Russia consistently opposed NATO expansion. Former Soviet states vacillated in and out of Soviet influence. The "west" had some seeking to expand NATO even to the point of including Russia, some seeking to avoid aggravating Russia, some seeking to avoid NATO getting involved in the mess and corruption of some of the former Soviet states, etc. In short, Ukraine was never formally invited and as of today is far from meeting the standards necessary to join NATO under normal times.

As for Finland/Sweden -- I expect 80:20 Finland does and 60:40 that Sweden does. But, neither can replace the population or economies of France and Germany if those two are reluctant members.

Fin/Swe-aside, we also have to be careful in assuming that more NATO members are a better deal for the US -- essentially NATO is a blank check insurance policy given by the US to Europe to defend against Russia. Like any insurance issuer, it's great to insure folks with safe homes and the ability to pay their bills, not great to insure nearly bankrupt fireworks manufacturers. Given unresolved social/political/economic/nationalistic issues in the Russian periphery states, committing to all-out war against a nuclear power if any member is attacked seems less than ideal.

 

[Rhcuam]

We won't know how it ends...until it does. Clearly, nothing has gone as Russia surmised. Their troop morale has to be horrible.

Imagine you are a 19 year old Russian soldier, amongst a squadron of other men of similar age and background. All of them realize Putin is willing to run them thru a grinder, with nothing in it for them. I suspect all of them are trying as best they can to not have their life end before it really begins.

If they were unaware of the fact that mother Russia will willingly and happily feed them into a grinder to gain a foot of ground they either don’t know how to read or ever reviewed the last hundred years of war history involving Russia.

 

[SAJ-99]

I feel that 60 days in is too early to feel comfortable with the "energized NATO" narrative. In six months we could easily see a Marine Le Pen led France lessen interest in a strong NATO and Ukraine sanctions, and a Germany that will not dismantle its economic platform just to save Ukraine - both of which would mean NATO has its only energized membership being small eastern countries most Americans can't find on a map begging the US to be their protector - not an improvement in the big picture if this comes to pass. I am not predicting this outcome, just saying it has to be on the short list of plausible outcomes.

Maybe. But NATO hasnt fired a shot in this war and Russia has already lost over 10,000 troops. You can fight proxy wars much easier than sending in troops every time we are asked.

 

[Sytes]

"energized NATO

"Energized NATO" is a PR campaign, aka, NATO propaganda.

 

[hank4elk]

The Russian Cruiser ‘Moskva’ Dominates The Black Sea

The Russian navy cruiser Moskva by far is the most powerful warship in the Black Sea. If Russian President Vladimir Putin orders his troops to widen their war in Ukraine, Moskva, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, undoubtedly would lead the naval assault.

www.forbes.com

Interesting article in Jan touting the Moskva as a big deal...

40 year amortization aside seems like a real pricey asset to lose... Billion at least?

It 1st showed off the coast of Nam dogging the carrier fleet. Pride of the ruskies.
We chased it off with the Rentz and another frigate. Got to 1000 meters away and it turned 2. There were 200 rockets aimed at it and itchy fingers. I was on the deuce.

 

[hank4elk]

Ukraine IS a crime scene!

 

[BigHornRam]

You just can’t flip that switch off without crashing the entire global economy. Unfortunate, but reality. The world needs that carbon-based energy. But the sanctions are still crushing the Russian economy. This war can’t last long because Russian economy can’t endure this pain for very long. The longer it goes the worse it gets. China might like cheap oil but doesn’t want the stigma of backing a loser, which it looks like Russia will be given the current state of the war.

China has more problems than backing a loser.

China’s Governance Implosion

China is facing what is arguably the worst crisis in governance since the end of the Cultural Revolution in 1976.

www.forbes.com

 

[Sytes]

Interesting read, BHR.

Found this portion of her article interesting:

"With its increasing centralization of power, China has trapped itself in an authoritarian feedback loop (much like Russia's). Bad news is met with anger and withheld from leaders. Empowered central-government teams are parachuted in and confront local leaders. Policymakers are glorified and policy implementers excoriated.

This is not the first example of the negative effects of Xi Jinping’s recentralization of authority, a stark reversal of Deng’s focus on collective decision making. Another recent example is the self-induced energy crisis. China has massive coal reserves and consumes 4 billion tons a year, but it ran short of coal. Why? Misguided yet forceful command-economy efforts to constrain inflation through intervention in transfer pricing and environmental enforcement throughout the power value chain, from mine to end-users."

 

[SAJ-99]

China has more problems than backing a loser.

China’s Governance Implosion

China is facing what is arguably the worst crisis in governance since the end of the Cultural Revolution in 1976.

www.forbes.com

We can certainly hope, but the author and how the article is written makes me a little skeptical it will lead to change. Seems a little skewed, so she may be “talking her book” as we say.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Ukraine IS a crime scene!

Gonna take a lot of yellow tape to mark it off.

 

[VikingsGuy]

China has more problems than backing a loser.

China’s Governance Implosion

China is facing what is arguably the worst crisis in governance since the end of the Cultural Revolution in 1976.

www.forbes.com

Unfortunately, when powerful dictatorships feel internal pressure, the broader world becomes less safe.

 

[BigHornRam]

We can certainly hope, but the author and how the article is written makes me a little skeptical it will lead to change. Seems a little skewed, so she may be “talking her book” as we say.

She does take issue with Xi and the CCP. She also writes about what a house of cards the Chinese economy is right now.

Soft Or Hard? China’s Property Sector Is Coming In For A Landing

China’s government is trying to persuade the rest of the world that the property crash is well in hand, everyone’s money is safe, and the growth narrative will resume after the commercial break.

www.forbes.com

 

[LopeHunter]

We now have another instance of nuke warheads do not float. How many submarines are headed to that sunken ship today?

 

[SAJ-99]

She does take issue with Xi and the CCP. She also writes about what a house of cards the Chinese economy is right now.

Soft Or Hard? China’s Property Sector Is Coming In For A Landing

China’s government is trying to persuade the rest of the world that the property crash is well in hand, everyone’s money is safe, and the growth narrative will resume after the commercial break.

www.forbes.com

I agree, just think it is mostly hope. Look at her bio and ask if the view might be skewed. It's in the Hedge Fund and Private Equity section and her bio line is "I find and expose fraud in the public markets at J Capital Research." I view her the same as any article from Kyle Bass or Jim Chanos (both running far larger and more well known funds than J Capital) and they have been bears on the China economy for a over a decade. Maybe at some point they will be correct, but timing is everything.