Lots of good input to think about.
My predictions of a Russian-Western conflict being an eventuality are based on Russian history and world history from 1914-1945. And I suspect I am influenced by my Great Grandfather leaving Finland in 1913 as a 25 year-old to escape the Russification of Finland and conscription to service in the Russian Army, along with the family history passed down from that event.
It was only 26 years later that a shaken world stood by as Russia brutally attacked Finland, shortly after Germany destroyed Poland. The idea was that by not confronting Stalin in his quest for Finland and by granting Hitler a few smaller countries, WWII would be avoided. Well, it was two years later, Hitler still not fearing any response from the world, that the US officially entered WWII.
The Finns incurred 70,000+ casualties to the Russian's 350,00+ in the Winter War of 1939. Finland, fighting without any aid from the western countries, inflicted enough damage to cause Russia to ask for a truce, with Finland giving up most of the Karelian Peninsula. I never heard what happened to the family members who stayed in Finland.
Lessons to me and drilled in to most young men raised in families of strong Finn traditions:
- Never trust the Russian Government.
- Never be unarmed or unprepared.
- Never be fooled to think a bully will be impressed by weakness.
- Inflicting pain on strongmen gets their attention.
- Evil men are evil; they don't change. Deal with them accordingly.
I know that family history likely influences my perspective. From a pre-teen age I was taught the rules about disliking and distrusting everything Russian power represents. Only two generations, my Dad and his mother, separate me from a Great Grandfather who felt he had no choice but to flee a country he dearly loved because of the Russians.
Add in a lot of world history to that family history and that's why I feel as I do when I watch the determined Ukrainians facing the same clan of despotic tyrants, just a century later. It is interesting to watch a country that has tasted freedom for only three decades express that they would rather die than live under the rule of Putin and Russia who would likely kill many of them and ruin the lives of those who did survive.
The world has previously been lulled into the fallacy that Putin/Hitler-types can be subdued by offers of peace and negotiation. Every time it has been tried the result was the same; bad. And every time, the consequences of delay resulted in much greater cost in lives. I fear this is another time when we risk repeating these hard lessons of history.
Regardless of my personal thoughts, I am impressed by the resolve demonstrated by the outgunned and outmanned Ukrainians.
