The future of Preference Points

[Stocker]

I'm saying if a 12 year old starts today building points as a NR to apply for unit 2/201 for elk or 851 for bear, etc that their name will not actually be in the hat for drawing 35+ years.

During that time they have to beat life expectancy, stay healthy, and continue to apply diligently without missing a year. In the case of my 16% attrition for someone with 5pts, 93% of starting applicants were lost to attrition, only 7% drew out.

So there is a 93% chance that for whatever reason the 12 year old will not make it to the point at which they will have their hat in the ring.

Further, since 93% of folks didn't draw a tag, it's likely that in that those 30 years folks will get frustrated with the system and change it so that the 12 year olds "Spot in line" isn't in fact saved.

So, yes I'm saying that 12 year old is unlikely to ever reach the top point holders pool.

Plus you have guys like me that will apply on their deathbeds. No way in hell physically I’ll be able to hunt but I’ll draw that tag out of pure spite.

 

[Firedude]

Counter point: nobody owes you a tag. You don't draw, you don't draw. There are still ample opportunities to hunt w/I pulling a LE permit. Cows, does, bear, OTC units, etc.

This is why PP are participation trophies.

I hear that from a lot of people who generally have pulled those limited entry tags.

Lets use Mighty Mouse's graph he put up. (Thanks by the way, @Mighty Mouse) PP work best when used for a small amount of the tags. 5% to 10% and only getting them if you apply. No buying. All that does is make that 12% no draw group dissappear. Who does it take away from? The guys who draw frequently. Oh dang you're only going to draw 3 bull tags instead of 4 in 20 years so the other taxpayer can get 1 in his lifetime. 88% of applicants will draw random. Few people are going to use points to draw. It makes them insignificant. I hear a lot of, "I'm willing to give up everything to make it more fair." OK. Then do it.

That makes bonus/preference points an insurance policy if disaster hits you. Not a participation trophy.

And like anything else when odds get way to low. Switch to 100% random 1 and done.

 

[RyGuy]

Another option to help with point creep: apply for and hunt lower level tags. Just hunt!
Colorado (if I’m reading the hunt statistics correctly) gave out ~119,000 elk tags, at 35% availability for non residents that leaves 41,650 for NR and 77,350 for residents.
There were ~115,000 resident applicants and ~105,000 NR applicants. In theory we should be able to cycle through all of the residents every 2 years and all of the nonres every 3 years.
I know this is a major generalization, but my point is that the point creep problem isn’t hopeless.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Who does it take away from?

Those in the womb of time. It takes away from those who are not participating in the draw at the inception of the game.

You and mighty mouse are looking at it from the perspective of the cartesian plane.
P does not equal 10%. P = 10%- F
F = percent draw odd decline as the point pools expand well beyond the rate that tag allocation causes them to decline. So declining odds assuming that a tag is once in a lifetime.

The expansion of the systems is just wild.

2015


2022

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Another option to help with point creep: apply for and hunt lower level tags. Just hunt!
Colorado (if I’m reading the hunt statistics correctly) gave out ~119,000 elk tags, at 35% availability for non residents that leaves 41,650 for NR and 77,350 for residents.
There were ~115,000 resident applicants and ~105,000 NR applicants. In theory we should be able to cycle through all of the residents every 2 years and all of the nonres every 3 years.
I know this is a major generalization, but my point is that the point creep problem isn’t hopeless.

Not the actual issue, almost all the unit can be drawn with under 5 points only a handful require more than 5... even smaller number more than (Resident) 15 points.

But Residents have the hybrid draw which allows some tags to be allocated "randomly", this isn't true for NR.

Further you can build points while hunting in a bunch of different ways which gum the system all up.

If you know the system you could get a 2+ point tag every year and then still build points.... but the the issues I pointed out earlier only folks in the top pools will draw in their lifetimes.

So yes if you are just looking to go elk hunting in CO every year there is no issue... I mean heck it's OTC.

 

[PrairieHunter]

The whole thing is not sustainable IMO. The demand has simply outpaced the supply of deer, elk, antelope, etc tags.


Even if there are 2 new hunters joining the system for every tag that is issued it won't work as it still just keeps growing and only the early adopters get tags while others are caught in a mathematical quagmire.


One solution is to raise the price of the tag and preference point to get the applications down to a sustainable level. But only the rich benefit from a system where preference points are $1,000 and tags are $2,500, special draw is $5,000.

The preference point system problem is solved, less tags are needed to be issued to fund the wildlife department, less impact on the animals with less hunters in the field.

 

[PrairieHunter]

Another option to help with point creep: apply for and hunt lower level tags. Just hunt!
Colorado (if I’m reading the hunt statistics correctly) gave out ~119,000 elk tags, at 35% availability for non residents that leaves 41,650 for NR and 77,350 for residents.
There were ~115,000 resident applicants and ~105,000 NR applicants. In theory we should be able to cycle through all of the residents every 2 years and all of the nonres every 3 years.
I know this is a major generalization, but my point is that the point creep problem isn’t hopeless.

The Colorado business model relies on public land hunters having low success rates and bringing in a new group of hunters every couple of weeks who pay for the very difficult opportunity to hunt because they did not get better tags elsewhere. So yes they sell a lot of tags but that is a unique situation where they have a massive elk herd and the right mix of private land to maintain that herd while giving people OTC public land opportunities.

You also have to keep in mind that guys like Randy have a lot of resources available and he still struggled to get away from crowds and kill elk with an OTC tag if I remember correctly.

For example there are unlimited sheep units in Montana, but OTC tags for sheep are not sustainable anywhere else in the lower 48.

OTC = low success rates to be sustainable.

 

[thusby]

One solution is to raise the price of the tag and preference point to get the applications down to a sustainable level. But only the rich benefit from a system where preference points are $1,000 and tags are $2,500, special draw is $5,000.

Dude those prices wouldn’t even phase the guy who sprays my yard for mosquitoes if he wanted to shoot an antelope.

 

[RyGuy]

The Colorado business model relies on public land hunters having low success rates and bringing in a new group of hunters every couple of weeks who pay for the very difficult opportunity to hunt because they did not get better tags elsewhere. So yes they sell a lot of tags but that is a unique situation where they have a massive elk herd and the right mix of private land to maintain that herd while giving people OTC public land opportunities.

You also have to keep in mind that guys like Randy have a lot of resources available and he still struggled to get away from crowds and kill elk with an OTC tag if I remember correctly.

For example there are unlimited sheep units in Montana, but OTC tags for sheep are not sustainable anywhere else in the lower 48.

OTC = low success rates to be sustainable.

The numbers I quoted were just draw tags. There are even more given out via OTC. We could cycle through EVERYONE in a year with OTC (unlimited). And sure the success rates are low, but I’d like to see a @wllm graph showing your likelihood to shoot an elk when hunting low success units every year vs hunting a premium unit with 80% success once every 40 years. I bet you’re more likely to kill an elk hunting the low success units. That’s not even taking into account the fact that elk hunting once every 40 years puts you at a disadvantage because you’re not exactly an “experienced” elk hunter at that point.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

The numbers I quoted were just draw tags. There are even more given out via OTC. We could cycle through EVERYONE in a year with OTC (unlimited). And sure the success rates are low, but I’d like to see a @wllm graph showing your likelihood to shoot an elk when hunting low success units every year vs hunting a premium unit with 80% success once every 40 years. I bet you’re more likely to kill an elk hunting the low success units. That’s not even taking into account the fact that elk hunting once every 40 years puts you at a disadvantage because you’re not exactly an “experienced” elk hunter at that point.

Mostly agree... those it's chances at a huge elk rather than an elk.

But yeah OTC ever year in CO you will likely kill a bigger elk in 40 years than in hunting a premium unit once. I know a couple people who have hunted 2/201, 10, etc and they all killed bigger elk in OTC units. Small sample size though...

To the PP problem though, you don't have to choose, you can build points and hunt ever year.

 

[Ben Lamb]

Communist!

 

[rwc101]

Make preference points draw only instead of OTC and sell preference points for preference points.

You're welcome.

 

[Ben Lamb]

People, people, people, have you not read your Dickens, or your O. Henry? In your attempts to find an answer to the chaos, you've overlooked the obvious: the answer IS the chaos.

The solution lies in digging further. Make the system so overwhelmingly complicated and frustrating that the only people who could ever stand a chance of making their way through the gauntlet are those who are truly willing to forsake everything they hold dear in their quest for their tag, and as such, the only ones who deserve them.

There's lots that can be done. Starting with the following ideas would whittle those numbers down real quick:

Squaring points? Go all in and y=mx+b those points. You don't just need points, you need point rates.

Looking up last year's draw results? Try no draw results from the last 4 years.

How about implementing Russian-style sale of tags and licenses? Anyone who isn't familiar with such a system, it's an arduous, long-lasting process where you have to identify and purchase things without much of the information you'd like to use, and you are not allowed to ask questions or for help. I remember how difficult it was to buy movie tickets in such a culture, getting a hunting license, tag, points, and all other sorts of things would be a likely impossible endeavor.

Make points only available for purchase on site, in person, at some government building somewhere in some obscure location in the building. And do that thing where the building you have to go to doesn't make any sense, like the Revenue or Department of Administration buildings (inspired by Montana sending you to the local county treasurer's office to do car title work).

Add nonsense paperwork. Forms on forms on forms. You can't just buy preference points, there's a whole procedure involved! What, you didn't bring a D182-C? Well, back to the line you go - next!

Anyway, there's a start. Anyone who can make it through all that deserves a point. Most of us would give up at the Russian-style koisk where they won't tell us what kind of tags we can get or how much anything costs.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

How about implementing Russian-style sale of tags and licenses? Anyone who isn't familiar with such a system, it's an arduous, long-lasting process where you have to identify and purchase things without much of the information you'd like to use, and you are not allowed to ask questions or for help. I remember how difficult it was to buy movie tickets in such a culture, getting a hunting license, tag, points, and all other sorts of things would be a likely impossible endeavor.

Make points only available for purchase on site, in person, at some government building somewhere in some obscure location in the building. And do that thing where the building you have to go to doesn't make any sense, like the Revenue or Department of Administration buildings (inspired by Montana sending you to the local county treasurer's office to do car title work).

Add nonsense paperwork. Forms on forms on forms. You can't just buy preference points, there's a whole procedure involved! What, you didn't bring a D182-C? Well, back to the line you go - next!

Anyway, there's a start. Anyone who can make it through all that deserves a point. Most of us would give up at the Russian-style koisk where they won't tell us what kind of tags we can get or how much anything costs.

Ah the Massachusetts method... works great for reducing gun ownership rates...

"mmmm yeah sorry you can't pay for your license with cash/card/check, you have to pay with a cashiers check, but you can't pay me or mail it, you have to take it in person to the treasurers office across town."

 

[Stocker]

Every single LE tag from every state goes into a hat, anyone who wants to draw buys a $100 raffle ticket. They start at moose/sheep and work their way down to the tags nobody wants. If you draw a tag and don’t want it you go back into the raffle.

Get what you get and don’t throw a fit.

 

[RyGuy]

Mostly agree... those it's chances at a huge elk rather than an elk.

But yeah OTC ever year in CO you will likely kill a bigger elk in 40 years than in hunting a premium unit once. I know a couple people who have hunted 2/201, 10, etc and they all killed bigger elk in OTC units. Small sample size though...

To the PP problem though, you don't have to choose, you can build points and hunt ever year.

I feel like most of the issues here would be solved by implementing 2 rules:
1. If you hunt a list A tag you lose your points.
2. No applying for points only. Only get a point if you apply for a hunt.

 

[Ben Lamb]

Every single LE tag from every state goes into a hat, anyone who wants to draw buys a $100 raffle ticket. They start at moose/sheep and work their way down to the tags nobody wants. If you draw a tag abs don’t want it you go back into the raffle.

Get what you get and don’t throw a fit.

Slight Addition: Stacey Keach has to yell at you while the draw happens:

 

[Deleted member 16014]

People, people, people, have you not read your Dickens, or your O. Henry? In your attempts to find an answer to the chaos, you've overlooked the obvious: the answer IS the chaos.

The solution lies in digging further. Make the system so overwhelmingly complicated and frustrating that the only people who could ever stand a chance of making their way through the gauntlet are those who are truly willing to forsake everything they hold dear in their quest for their tag, and as such, the only ones who deserve them.

There's lots that can be done. Starting with the following ideas would whittle those numbers down real quick:

Squaring points? Go all in and y=mx+b those points. You don't just need points, you need point rates.

Looking up last year's draw results? Try no draw results from the last 4 years.

How about implementing Russian-style sale of tags and licenses? Anyone who isn't familiar with such a system, it's an arduous, long-lasting process where you have to identify and purchase things without much of the information you'd like to use, and you are not allowed to ask questions or for help. I remember how difficult it was to buy movie tickets in such a culture, getting a hunting license, tag, points, and all other sorts of things would be a likely impossible endeavor.

Make points only available for purchase on site, in person, at some government building somewhere in some obscure location in the building. And do that thing where the building you have to go to doesn't make any sense, like the Revenue or Department of Administration buildings (inspired by Montana sending you to the local county treasurer's office to do car title work).

Add nonsense paperwork. Forms on forms on forms. You can't just buy preference points, there's a whole procedure involved! What, you didn't bring a D182-C? Well, back to the line you go - next!

Anyway, there's a start. Anyone who can make it through all that deserves a point. Most of us would give up at the Russian-style koisk where they won't tell us what kind of tags we can get or how much anything costs.

Obviously this post is in jest, and very well done at that.

However, there is probably some real effect of the opposite of this happening over time. It used to be a PITA to access draw data, look at unit maps, research quota changes for the year, etc. I'm hardly an old codger but even 10-15 years ago most state game agency websites were a mess compared to what they are now.

 

[Ben Lamb]

Ah the Massachusetts method... works great for reducing gun ownership rates...

"mmmm yeah sorry you can't pay for your license with cash/card/check, you have to pay with a cashiers check, but you can't pay me or mail it, you have to take it in person to the treasurers office across town."

Billy the kid over here really selling the idea hard.

 

[Mighty Mouse]

I'm saying if a 12 year old starts today building points as a NR to apply for unit 2/201 for elk or 851 for bear, etc that their name will not actually be in the hat for drawing 35+ years.

During that time they have to beat life expectancy, stay healthy, and continue to apply diligently without missing a year. In the case of my 16% attrition for someone with 5pts, 93% of starting applicants were lost to attrition, only 7% drew out.

So there is a 93% chance that for whatever reason the 12 year old will not make it to the point at which they will have their hat in the ring.

Further, since 93% of folks didn't draw a tag, it's likely that in that those 30 years folks will get frustrated with the system and change it so that the 12 year olds "Spot in line" isn't in fact saved.

So, yes I'm saying that 12 year old is unlikely to ever reach the top point holders pool.

The attrition you speak of is a voluntary choice to quit trying. If someone wants the "best" tag in Colorado, the path to it is clear: start early, apply every year, and be patient.

If a 30 point tag like CO unit 201 elk were converted to random draw and had 4% draw odds (on par with NR odds for a Gila elk tag in NM), the 12 year old who spent 35 years applying has a 24% probability of not getting it in that timeframe (while others [41%] draw it multiple times).

There is no definitively "correct" answer; some folks prefer a small chance every year while others prefer to plan and wait for a much greater chance in the future. The more desirable the tag, the smaller your yearly chances in a random draw and the longer you wait in a preference point system.