The future of Preference Points

[VikingsGuy]

Others have offered, but I do agree that if we are going to have PP/BP then they should only be awarded after falling short of an actual application to hunt. No after the fact "naked" purchases of PP. Just add the lost revenue to the cost of drawn tags and it will be a push for the state and the cost will be borne by those who actually get the tags.

 

[Ben Lamb]

Counter point to your counter point: some point systems have worked as intended when demand has not outstripped supply allowing a wide distribution of tags to more than just “you lucky sob’s”. I know of an MT rifle elk unit of around 10% draw odds that everyone I know drew after 10-15 years or less of putting in. Would that have been the case random? I suspect not

Counter to the counter to the counter: https://gearjunkie.com/outdoor/hunt-fish/montana-fwp-issues-nonresident-tags-unsuccessful-applicants

Plus, NR outfitted dudes get double points, so all of the theoretical BS about how helpful points are gets thrown out the window for MT. In WY we're seeing the similar issue relative to outfitters wanting a larger slice of the pie, but not willing to share.

Furthermore, if we put the focus only on the draw or the permit, we are continuing to argue for smaller pieces of the pie, rather than focusing on making a larger pie.

 

[rogerthat]

Counter to the counter to the counter: https://gearjunkie.com/outdoor/hunt-fish/montana-fwp-issues-nonresident-tags-unsuccessful-applicants

Plus, NR outfitted dudes get double points, so all of the theoretical BS about how helpful points are gets thrown out the window for MT. In WY we're seeing the similar issue relative to outfitters wanting a larger slice of the pie, but not willing to share.

Furthermore, if we put the focus only on the draw or the permit, we are continuing to argue for smaller pieces of the pie, rather than focusing on making a larger pie.

It’s really a preference/opinion thing but just don’t forget their are losers out there, like myself, that will never draw a tag with less than 80-100% draw odds. The only tags I have drawn with lesser odds were because of the point systems.

Don’t construe this post as me bitching I prefer ball crushing Tred Barta style otc type hunts

 

[thusby]

I always tell myself, “one day I will just hunt ducks.” Then I buy preference points in 3 states and apply for 5 hunts.

 

[matt24073]

I gave up on preference points and finally burned my 10 in Wyoming. Fingers crossed!

 

[Ben Lamb]

It’s really a preference/opinion thing but just don’t forget their are losers out there, like myself, that will never draw a tag with less than 80-100% draw odds. The only tags I have drawn with lesser odds were because of the point systems.

Don’t construe this post as me bitching I prefer ball crushing Tred Barta style otc type hunts

I get that, I'm likely in that pool as well, especially if my raffle luck holds out, but I think we put too much value on the tag and we would rather try and slice the pie smaller to get a scrap. Points don't do anything but raise money & slightly improved chitty odds.

Random is fair, equitable & an honest approach. Points are a game.

 

[rogerthat]

I get that, I'm likely in that pool as well, especially if my raffle luck holds out, but I think we put too much value on the tag and we would rather try and slice the pie smaller to get a scrap. Points don't do anything but raise money & slightly improved chitty odds.

Random is fair, equitable & an honest approach. Points are a game.

The only way I think random is fair and equitable is if we are talking OIL on the draw. Otherwise you can’t tell me a dude/chick drawing 3 times while another guy/gal never draws is fair. That’s how random works. Sucks to suck

 

[ImBillT]

How far do you want to go to level the playing field? Charge residents and non residents the same price for tags? Give residents and non residents the same odds of drawing a permit or license? The playing field is never level, there are preferences given for where you live and how often you apply.

A random system gives preference to those who apply more often. Which group of people will have drawn more tags in a random system? Those who have applied two times, or those who have applied twenty time?

 

[Deleted member 28227]

@rogerthat et al.

Yeah but per the thread title preference points.

So the only system that I know of that is a true preference point system without some sort of random component is Colorado NR DEP + Bear.

In that system for premium tags, you will apply your lifetime and never actually have a shot at drawing a tag. There is only a drawing for those in the top point pool, and there are enough people in the point pools that if you are say 5-8 points back from max you probably won't ever make it to that top pool.

My argument is that preference points are unfair because most applicants will never, at any point in their lives, have a chance.

So yeah... some really chitty random odds are preferable.

 

[rogerthat]

A random system gives preference to those who apply more often. Which group of people will have drawn more tags in a random system? Those who have applied two times, or those who have applied twenty time?

This exact statement can be said for "insert pretty much any point system except maybe what @wllm just said". Bonus points/most point systems are just a way of standing in line. Some people prefer raffles. I guess I prefer standing in line and grinding. That's the only way I have been able to draw tags. I think the proposal @BuzzH laid out gets my vote for the best I have seen. It gives everyone a shot but gives people a way to stand in line if you so choose. To each there own I guess.

 

[brocksw]

Yup. And SRS. And revenue share on gas/minerals/timber/grazing.

Is it just me or does that not seem like "aid"? It seems like a fair, perhaps even generous deal to me. Federal land is tax exempt and many of those dollars are to compensate for that lost revenue by states/counties that they would normally be getting if ownership was private or even owned by some states agencies. Even our North Dakota Game and Fish pays property tax on their Wildlife Management Areas. I feel like this is where stats/numbers can be twisted to suit a narrative, making MT and WY appear to very dependent on federal dollars, as if it is similar to welfare. To me, federal aid is emergency declarations, roads, grants, matching funds for public projects, etc. Revenue sharing and PILT payments shouldn't be counted as "aid".

 

[VikingsGuy]

Is it just me or does that not seem like "aid"? It seems like a fair, perhaps even generous deal to me. Federal land is tax exempt and many of those dollars are to compensate for that lost revenue by states/counties that they would normally be getting if ownership was private or even owned by some states agencies. Even our North Dakota Game and Fish pays property tax on their Wildlife Management Areas. I feel like this is where stats/numbers can be twisted to suit a narrative, making MT and WY appear to very dependent on federal dollars, as if it is similar to welfare. To me, federal aid is emergency declarations, roads, grants, matching funds for public projects, etc. Revenue sharing and PILT payments shouldn't be counted as "aid".

Fair points, but remember that in legal history when it was decided that the state owned the wildlife it was also the case that the sovereign owed nothing in taxes. Over time our nation decided sharing funds with states “burdened” by federal lands was the right thing for the republic in spite of the traditional approach. So, it is also reasonable that we can ask to modernize our view of animal stewardship away from a state-centric model. I am not saying states don’t do some things well, I am just saying if folks want to say that until the end of time states get 100% control over game because that is the way it has always been done, I suggest they embrace all kinds of other rules that were the norm back then and quit cherry picking a basket that works for them personally today.

 

[Ben Lamb]

The only way I think random is fair and equitable is if we are talking OIL on the draw. Otherwise you can’t tell me a dude/chick drawing 3 times while another guy/gal never draws is fair. That’s how random works. Sucks to suck

5 year time out on LE should be a discussion point.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

This exact statement can be said for "insert pretty much any point system except maybe what @wllm just said". Bonus points/most point systems are just a way of standing in line. Some people prefer raffles. I guess I prefer standing in line and grinding. That's the only way I have been able to draw tags. I think the proposal @BuzzH laid out gets my vote for the best I have seen. It gives everyone a shot but gives people a way to stand in line if you so choose. To each there own I guess.

Here is Colorado bear as an example, they give out 1 or 2 tags a year to NR for 851, which is the only unit that requires more than 2 points to draw... so ostensibly anyone over like 3 points in applying for that.

The tables below show how long your "line" is if you are 35 today and have 5pts or 4pts.

The black bolded number is the first time your name goes in the hat, the red number is when everyone in your pool is drawn.

I did it for two cases, one using a 16% attrition rate per year the other a 12%. Attrition meaning people who die/ stop buying points or for whatever reason are no longer in the game but didn't draw.

 

[SaskHunter]

Problem is that people paid for years to get to the point they had a better chance of drawing. I guess you could just stop the process of adding additional points.

Sucks to suck.

People invest money in useless things all the time. At the end of the day, odds are getting crappier every year and you may reach a point where your 22 years of applying was just 22 years worth of lost money. Your odds might be better at a full random draw.

 

[Mighty Mouse]

So the only system that I know of that is a true preference point system without some sort of random component is Colorado NR DEP + Bear.

In that system for premium tags, you will apply your lifetime and never actually have a shot at drawing a tag. There is only a drawing for those in the top point pool, and there are enough people in the point pools that if you are say 5-8 points back from max you probably won't ever make it to that top pool.

My argument is that preference points are unfair because most applicants will never, at any point in their lives, have a chance.

So yeah... some really chitty random odds are preferable.

To use the extreme case as an example, are you saying that if a 12 year old (minimum age to begin applying in Colorado) starts building points now, he'll never reach the top pointholders pool?

 

[SaskHunter]

Random is fair, equitable & an honest approach. Points are a game.

Communist!

 

[Deleted member 28227]

To use the extreme case as an example, are you saying that if a 12 year old (minimum age to begin applying in Colorado) starts building points now, he'll never reach the top pointholders pool?

I'm saying if a 12 year old starts today building points as a NR to apply for unit 2/201 for elk or 851 for bear, etc that their name will not actually be in the hat for drawing 35+ years.

During that time they have to beat life expectancy, stay healthy, and continue to apply diligently without missing a year. In the case of my 16% attrition for someone with 5pts, 93% of starting applicants were lost to attrition, only 7% drew out.

So there is a 93% chance that for whatever reason the 12 year old will not make it to the point at which they will have their hat in the ring.

Further, since 93% of folks didn't draw a tag, it's likely that in that those 30 years folks will get frustrated with the system and change it so that the 12 year olds "Spot in line" isn't in fact saved.

So, yes I'm saying that 12 year old is unlikely to ever reach the top point holders pool.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

@Mighty Mouse the entire premise of preference points is that there are enough tags that everyone gets on within a reasonable amount of time.

My cut off is around 5 years. So 1000 applicants 200 tags.

If you get to 1000 applicants and 5 tags the system is just kinda pointless. Most folks wont ever draw.

 

[texwest44]

People, people, people, have you not read your Dickens, or your O. Henry? In your attempts to find an answer to the chaos, you've overlooked the obvious: the answer IS the chaos.

The solution lies in digging further. Make the system so overwhelmingly complicated and frustrating that the only people who could ever stand a chance of making their way through the gauntlet are those who are truly willing to forsake everything they hold dear in their quest for their tag, and as such, the only ones who deserve them.

There's lots that can be done. Starting with the following ideas would whittle those numbers down real quick:

Squaring points? Go all in and y=mx+b those points. You don't just need points, you need point rates.

Looking up last year's draw results? Try no draw results from the last 4 years.

How about implementing Russian-style sale of tags and licenses? Anyone who isn't familiar with such a system, it's an arduous, long-lasting process where you have to identify and purchase things without much of the information you'd like to use, and you are not allowed to ask questions or for help. I remember how difficult it was to buy movie tickets in such a culture, getting a hunting license, tag, points, and all other sorts of things would be a likely impossible endeavor.

Make points only available for purchase on site, in person, at some government building somewhere in some obscure location in the building. And do that thing where the building you have to go to doesn't make any sense, like the Revenue or Department of Administration buildings (inspired by Montana sending you to the local county treasurer's office to do car title work).

Add nonsense paperwork. Forms on forms on forms. You can't just buy preference points, there's a whole procedure involved! What, you didn't bring a D182-C? Well, back to the line you go - next!

Anyway, there's a start. Anyone who can make it through all that deserves a point. Most of us would give up at the Russian-style koisk where they won't tell us what kind of tags we can get or how much anything costs.