So! You want to draw a tag in Arizona, do you??

[JoseCuervo]

Danr,,,

Help me out here.... 10% chance of drawing, times 4 chances = 40%. Expected value is .4tags this year.

Next year is .5tags
The next year is .6tags...

Am I missing something on the way the system works????

 

[stanleyaz]

I'll butt-in Gunner, if you don't mind.... 4 chances when the overall odds are 10% does not equal a 40% chance. It only means that you have 4 different '10% chances'. And really, the 10% chance is a false number, because there are certainly other folks in the drawing with as many (or more) bonus points than you...

Example: 100 people put in for a unit with 10 tags, then each person has a 10% chance. That assumes NO bonus points for anyone. Now if you were the only one of those 100 people who had 4 bonus points, then there would be 103 total chances in the drawing, of which you only 'own' 4 of them. So even though you have a better chance than the other folks in the pool, you definitely don't have a 40% chance. You would need to have > 40 bonus points in order to have a 40% chance in this example.

My opinion of the bonus point system is that it's impact on increasing a person's chances is largely over-estimated by the general population. The main reason for me stating this is that EVERY unsuccessful applicant from the previous year gets a bonus point. So keeping the above example in mind, there is a good chance that many other folks also have bonus points, reducing the positive impact of your 4 bonus points even more.... The bonus point value gets diluted as more & more bonus points are issued.

My $.02....

Hope I didn't bum you out.....

S.

 

[Calif. Hunter]

It doesn't work that way, EG. Each ticket still only has a 10% chance, and 4 tickets does not mean one 40% chance, anymore than 10 tickets would mean a 100% chance.

Okay - Stanley beat me to it with a more complete explanation.

 

[JoseCuervo]

When they say 10% odds, is that for each applicant, independent of bonus points?

There is a cumulative expected value for all the points one has, but I guess the missing information to me is does the state just report the odds of the 1st choice (sans bonus points) of being drawn?

Even so, if at a 10% drawing odds, I should "expect" my name to be drawn within 10 years, based upon an expected value of .10Tags per year. The bonus points would only increase the odds, correct?

 

[A-con]

It's like flipping a coin, heads or tails 50/50 right ? But if you flip it once and it comes up tails, that dosn't mean next time it will be heads, next time it's still 50/50.

I spoke to a young lady that handles stats at for AZ game & fish, she said the average big game app( last year) had around 3 bonus points, This year it will be around 3 1/2.

That 10% odds, unit 10 is for archery, early rifle is under 1%.

I've got 5 points and an icecubes chance of drawing !

 

[danr55]

Here's how it works. When your application for a specific species is entered, each application is assigned a number by a random number generator. If you have bonus points, you have a corresponding number of chances for the assigned number. Your application will use the lowest assigned number from the application process. After all of the applications are entered, the draw begins. The applications are selected in order of the random assigned number. The first two hunts are checked for availability. They run through all of the applications, checking the first two hunt numbers. When they finish that first run, they begin with the lowest assigned number and check hunt numbers 3 through 5.

The biggest advantage for bonus points is for those with the highest number of points. A special draw is made before any of the other tags are drawn. 10% of all of the hunt tags are available during this draw. If you are in the draw and don't draw a tag, you go back into the general draw.

So you don't really have four applications in the draw. You have four chances for a random number assigned during the application entry process. After that, you only have one chance like everyone else. So, the more chances you have at that assigned number, the better your odds of being near the first draw. That is why you put the premium hunt as number one and the second choice is one with a better chance of drawing.

Hope this helps you understand.

 

[JoseCuervo]

But each time I flip the coin, I "expect" a .5Heads.... so if I flip two years in a row, I expect .5+.5 which is 1.0Heads. Doesn't mean it will happen that way, but if I flip often enough...

It is good to know that I now have "more than average" number of Bonus points.

Does AZ actually issue the numbers behind their calculations? In Idaho they issue the number of Tags, the number of first choice applicants, and allow us to do the math.

Does AZ announce, the number of tags, the number of applicants and the number of bonus points of THOSE applicants??? That would allow you to know the expected value of each one of your applications.

Am I missing something???

 

[BuzzH]

Theres other ways to win at the drawing game besides having bonus points.

Its where you choose to spend the points...

I've heard that there actually ARE other elk areas outside of unit 10....

 

[JoseCuervo]

DanR,

What would you assign as an "expected" value?? Or how would you assign it???

 

[JoseCuervo]

Buzz,

How many points you got???? If you want to hunt hard, and hunt AZ for a big bull, let me know. There are two of us here, planning on that "once in a lifetime" easy AZ hunt. We will haul stock down and do a late season hunt.

If you know a better place to spend the Bonus points, and you want to tag on a Party app next year, let me know.

 

[BuzzH]

I know a good unit, I have a few points as well. I'd be interested in a party app...but I dont think I have as many points as you though.

I applied for an impossible early rifle rut hunt first choice, and a late muzzy hunt for my second...and I have a good source of info in AZ who works for the AZ Game and Fish...and who also does a lot of looking around.

I really hope to draw the late muzzy tag (about 30% odds), I know of a particularly large bull that needs to be taught a lesson for hanging around in such an easy spot...

Oh, after this year I'll have 4 points...3 plus the lifetime hunters safety point.

 

[JoseCuervo]

Take a Hunter Safety class next time in AZ, that will get you another point...

I think they "average" the points for a Party (as opposed to taking the lowest person's points).

We looked at it as a 5 year plan, sending ~125 each year to finally draw the tag. This year, we put in for a harder unit to draw, as we don't want the tag, too badly. This is our year for the Trophy Idaho tag, and my post card this week from F&G was very nice with the "SUCCESSFUL" label on it.

But the AZ tag we need has to be a late one, as we get kinda busy up here with Idaho Elk in November....

 

[BuzzH]

Gunner,

I took the AZ hunters safety course this year...I got that point, plus 3....so a total of 4.

I'd be game for a late rifle tag as well, I aint picky on how I see a critter die.

Congrats on the Idaho tag.

 

[JoseCuervo]

I think we are all even....

 

[BuzzH]

Gunner,

Before next years tags are due in AZ, and barring some luck in this years draw, I think it might not hurt to talk about our options...

 

[JoseCuervo]

You would have to be able to tolerate sleeping in a sheepherder's tent and not having any ATVs to use.....

 

[cjcj]

For you guy`s who don`t mind taking "alot" of time and effort, you might try those "multiple unit any elk hunts" Buzz i know you like to walk your ass off so these hunts could be right for you, and you might get the right conditions for a huge bull.

 

[BuzzH]

Elkgunner,

I think I could rough it without the ATV.

 

[danr55]

Guys, I don't think there is a way to really assign a value to bonus points. As long as the draw numbers are assigned randomly, you will have as many random opportunities as you have bonus points. They still remain random. Out of 1,000,000 chances, when drawn at random, you have as much chance of drawing 1, 2, 3 as you have of drawing 549,991 or 349,942, or 145. That is the nature of true random numbers. They are random.

Take Del for instance. I've hunted unit 10 three times in 12 years and unit 8 once. Del has drawn one tag in 20 years. I'm sure he has more bonus points than I do, it's just the luck of the draw.

The one advantage you get with bonus points is the "max point" reserve draw. Then you usually have a 1:200 shot at the primo tags. Each year those odds improve as the number of max point holder decreases. Best I can say is Good Luck.

Oh.....and to answer your question about the draw percentages and the bonus point numbers, yes that information is available. I don't know if you still have to purchase it from G&F or if it's free now. Last time I was that interested, I paid $5.00 for the results list. I think they publish it on thier web page now.