Smokey the Bear - I'm a little Skeptical

[Brian in Montana]

My whole life I've heard Smokey Bear and others talk about how 80% or some say 90% of forest fires are caused by man. Living in Montana for the past 20 years, I know it does happen, but seem most fires around here have been caused by lightning. Mid-summer or thereabout, things are drying up, and some isolated T-storms roll through with more lightning than rain, and a blaze gets started.

So, I recognize I'm a skeptic by nature about a lot of things, but do you guys think Smokey's propaganda is true, or just something put out there to try to get people to be more careful when recreating?

 

[wytex]

 

[wytex]

Taken from this website: https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/statistics

 

[golfer]

Man creates the large fire. Yes we can do our part and not start forest fires, but if you don't properly manage the forest you just add a whole lot of fuel to the fire and end up with big forest fires.

I will say I found this article interesting. Prolly not to the topic but...

Fighting fire with fire: Native American burning practices spark interest in a year of historic wildfires

Fire started by lightning has always been a part of the natural life cycle in the Western U.S., and for centuries Native Americans also carried out controlled burns, referred to as cultural burns, in order to manage crops and hunting areas, fireproof areas and manage pests.

news.yahoo.com

 

[MarvB]

Don’t know if it’s the norm but the fire investigations officer on our district classified all fires of an unknown nature as “man caused”. Basically if there weren’t thunderstorms in the area where a fire broke out it was case closed. He said he had no way to truly classify many unless they were actually witnessed- trailer chains, catalytic converters, broken glass, etc. One of the largest near our hometown was an idiot running a lawnmower over dry grass/rocks during 115* temps and hi winds…. Can’t fix stupid!

 

[OntarioHunter]

My whole life I've heard Smokey Bear and others talk about how 80% or some say 90% of forest fires are caused by man. Living in Montana for the past 20 years, I know it does happen, but seem most fires around here have been caused by lightning. Mid-summer or thereabout, things are drying up, and some isolated T-storms roll through with more lightning than rain, and a blaze gets started.

So, I recognize I'm a skeptic by nature about a lot of things, but do you guys think Smokey's propaganda is true, or just something put out there to try to get people to be more careful when recreating?

I don't mind a little exaggeration in government propaganda if the intent is honorable.

 

[TOGIE]

not to be nitpicky, but i can't help but notice "southern area" is really skewing the overall proportional average there

 

[Ben Lamb]

not to be nitpicky, but i can't help but notice "southern area" is really skewing the overall proportional average there

Those gulf coast states ruin the curve for all of America.

 

[Panda Bear]

My whole life I've heard Smokey Bear and others talk about how 80% or some say 90% of forest fires are caused by man. Living in Montana for the past 20 years, I know it does happen, but seem most fires around here have been caused by lightning. Mid-summer or thereabout, things are drying up, and some isolated T-storms roll through with more lightning than rain, and a blaze gets started.

So, I recognize I'm a skeptic by nature about a lot of things, but do you guys think Smokey's propaganda is true, or just something put out there to try to get people to be more careful when recreating?

I can't respond to whether Smokey Bear is correct or not, but we have between April and October a LOT of lightning generated forest fires.

We have had approx 80 of them this year , nine in one day last July ( lightning generated )

From memory we had only two generated by man in the same time frame.

BUT, this is just submitted for information only, as I have no knowledge about fires in "Smokey's" geographical location and we have FAR fewer people in the wilderness here than where Smokey lives.

 

[Ben Long]

Depends on geography. In places with lots of people, it's people that start most fires. In places with few people but lots of lightning, it's lightning. Smokey Bear is prone to oversimplification, it's true.

 

[Nameless Range]

Here is something I think about. In Montana, for example, we put out around 94% of fires on initial attack. I would wager and anecdotally see, that man caused fires are more likely to be extinguished on IA than lightning starts. Man started fires, by nature, start where men can go. Lightning starts are often in places where men aren't willing to go. So my hypothesis would be fires that aren't beat on IA are more likely to get big. So, to the OP fires you year about in the news may be disproportionately represented as lightning starts. Most folks aren't aware of the 9 out of 10 fires that are put out within an hour of someone calling them in before they are much bigger than an acre.

It is also true that when in doubt, it's a human start - what I would consider to be a correct assumption.

The B-D put this video up on their FB page, of the Haystack Fire - a lightning start- in the mountains I call home. Gives you an idea of why some fires aren't fought. Some of the roughest country out there. I climbed above this fire last Friday and did a repeat photo of the old lookout. 1936 vs Today

https://www.facebook.com/usfsbdnf/posts/3084007898495257

 

[rustednuts]

In Arizona, that is certainly the case most of the fires are in April, May & June when we are getting lightning. If a fire starts next to a road or trail it is probably man-made.

 

[kwyeewyk]

We had a few hundred thousand acres burn last September here in WA and all human caused, similarly had big fires in September in 2012 and all lightning caused. The lightning causes plenty, listen to Smokey and don't start fires!

 

[antlerradar]

Nameless. I love the old picture of the lookout.

I think you are right about man caused fires having a harder time getting out of control. I see plenty of man caused fires right on the highway. These fire are reported almost as soon as they start and firefighters have quick access with all there assets. Much less likely that the fire on the highway blows up than the lighting fire back in the mountains were firefighters have to hike in with hand tools.
Also most all man caused fires, unless you have an arsonist setting them are single fire events. On the other had a dry thunder storm can cause better than a dozen fires at the same time. If you get a storm like that fire crews get stretched thin fast. Good chance at least one of those fires is going to blow up.