Random Draw Odds General Deer WY

[publichunter1]

I was looking the 2018 stats on the WY game and fish websites and I did not see anything for the random general deer draws except for regions x and y. Do they not allot some of the NR General deer tags in the other regions?

Link to the stats I'm looking at:

https://wgfd.wyo.gov/WGFD/media/content/PDF/Hunting/Drawing%20Odds/DRAW_DEER_RD_NONRES_2018.pdf

https://wgfd.wyo.gov/WGFD/media/content/PDF/Hunting/Drawing%20Odds/DRAW_DEER_RD_NONRESSP_2018.pdf

 

[Topoman]

Go to the WY hunt planner, choose the general unit, and look at draw odds. The only ones that aren't working right now are regions that are newly delineated for this year (they split Region E into L and Q, I think).

 

[Washington Hunter]

You're looking at page 3. The other regions are on page 2.

 

[publichunter1]

That's weird. When I'm looking at it in my web browser it doesn't show but two pages but when I download it shows all 3. I don't know why but thanks for the help.
This is what it was showing in my browser.

 

[Millsworks]

Remember, random draw will only be if there are tags not drawn by point holders in the preference point draw that is held first for each unit and species.
So look several years back to see if there are usually tags drawn with no points.
If there usually isn't any drawn with no points, then chances are practically nill that there will be a random draw in that unit at all.
But, if you feel lucky you can still try to see what happens.
But some units, especially for elk, just never have enough tags for the top point holders, much less any to draw randomly.
Good luck to everyone throwing your name in for Wyoming this year. Hopefully it works out for most that planned it right.
As some have said though, point creep sucks.

 

[publichunter1]

I was just looking at the stats. However, I thought 25% NR quota was random?

 

[WapitiBob]

75% PP, 25% random however,

NR landowners draw first, remainder is combined then split 60/40 and 75/25 and special draw is done

there is no cap on landowner licenses being drawn so year to year can change how many licenses make it to the nr public draw

 

[madtom]

Remember, random draw will only be if there are tags not drawn by point holders in the preference point draw that is held first for each unit and species.
So look several years back to see if there are usually tags drawn with no points.
If there usually isn't any drawn with no points, then chances are practically nill that there will be a random draw in that unit at all.
But, if you feel lucky you can still try to see what happens.
But some units, especially for elk, just never have enough tags for the top point holders, much less any to draw randomly.
Good luck to everyone throwing your name in for Wyoming this year. Hopefully it works out for most that planned it right.
As some have said though, point creep sucks.

Well, that’s just not true...

75% to pt holders, 25% to random. Check last year’s random odds and account for changes in quota from last year - should get you close to knowing this year’s random quota minus any changes to landowner tags.

 

[Millsworks]

Ok
Looking at area 100 elk draw report....
I don't see any tags given out to anyone without max points.
So where is the 25% of those available tags that we t into random?
The way I understand it, the residents get theirs, then the non- res point holders, then if there are any left they go into random draw.
I sure thought that is how it was.
I know the OP is looking at deer but from what I can see there are several elk units that show no tags going into non-resident in the random draw.
I certainly am often mistaken, especially in the wild Western way of regs, but I don't see any tags going to non point holders for several units.

 

[Millsworks]

I was thinking the 25% tag allocations were over all tags, not per unit.
The resident tags not having a cap seems to eat up alot of an areas quota some times it seems.
Then there's the special that is totally unpredictable from year to year, depending on how many have deep pockets.
I believe at least one elk area sometimes doesn't have any tags given to non-resident at all.

I don't even bother looking at the random for areas I want to draw in. I look at the preference point draw report only, because it shows the total quota, the tags given to each number point holders, and the number given to zero point holders.
Seems to me if there are rarely any given to zero point holders, or sometimes never in some units, that a random draw for that unit is practically impossible.

 

[Big Fin]

Ok
Looking at area 100 elk draw report....
I don't see any tags given out to anyone without max points.
So where is the 25% of those available tags that we t into random?
The way I understand it, the residents get theirs, then the non- res point holders, then if there are any left they go into random draw.
I sure thought that is how it was.
I know the OP is looking at deer but from what I can see there are several elk units that show no tags going into non-resident in the random draw.
I certainly am often mistaken, especially in the wild Western way of regs, but I don't see any tags going to non point holders for several units.

I just looked at Unit 100. 10 total tags issued in the Special draw. 8 went to max point holders in the preference point part of the draw. The other 2 tags went to applicants in the random draw. Exactly how it is supposed to work.

Your understanding as stated above would be incorrect. The allocation is made to the non-resident pool, with that NR pool of tags split 60/40 to the Reg/Special draw, then split again with both the Reg/Special pools allocated 75/25 preference/random. Your explanation of the random draw is not how it works. The random tags are not a function of "any left over" after the resident and NR preference point draw.

 

[Millsworks]

Thanks for clarifying . I think I will probably not ever fully understand the complete process.
I have been able to draw the tags I have applied for in Wyoming so far with the info I have gathered in the past.
Hopefully this year will follow suit.
I apologise for my ignorance.
It seems a full time job explaining the system and how it works for you guys that do know how it goes.
I don't think I'll be earning my degree in the western draw anytime soon apparently.

 

[publichunter1]

Thank

I just looked at Unit 100. 10 total tags issued in the Special draw. 8 went to max point holders in the preference point part of the draw. The other 2 tags went to applicants in the random draw. Exactly how it is supposed to work.

Your understanding as stated above would be incorrect. The allocation is made to the non-resident pool, with that NR pool of tags split 60/40 to the Reg/Special draw, then split again with both the Reg/Special pools allocated 75/25 preference/random. Your explanation of the random draw is not how it works. The random tags are not a function of "any left over" after the resident and NR preference point draw.

Thanks for confirming all of that Randy. There seems to be better odds in the special random than the regular random but the whole credit card fee makes it less appealing.

 

[Big Fin]

....... There seems to be better odds in the special random than the regular random but the whole credit card fee makes it less appealing.

That is normally the case, but not always. This year, we applied one of our apps in the Regular elk draw, as last year the Regular draw was better odds than the Special draw. We drew in the Regular draw, even though some folks noticed what we did and both draws were almost identical this year.

Units that have a lot of outfitted NR hunters will usually be the units where the Regular odds are close to the Special odds. Most outfitters recommend their clients go in the Special draw, as that is normally a good idea.

Yes, the credit card fees hurt. I look at what we paid to WY for tag app processing fees so far this year, partly because of my bison addiction, and it is a lot of money.

 

[publichunter1]

That is normally the case, but not always. This year, we applied one of our apps in the Regular elk draw, as last year the Regular draw was better odds than the Special draw. We drew in the Regular draw, even though some folks noticed what we did and both draws were almost identical this year.

Units that have a lot of outfitted NR hunters will usually be the units where the Regular odds are close to the Special odds. Most outfitters recommend their clients go in the Special draw, as that is normally a good idea.

Yes, the credit card fees hurt. I look at what we paid to WY for tag app processing fees so far this year, partly because of my bison addiction, and it is a lot of money.

Yeah I try not to look back and see what all I spent so it doesn’t hurt so bad. I’m an engineer so I keep running all the numbers for the previous few seasons draw odds to up chances of drawing better tags.

I have a friend that did the special pool and is going guided up around Pinedale this year. His units numbers are like your example.

 

[justinch]

Maybe you guys can help me understand the difference between the results of the random draw and preference point with zero points. Using REGION Y GENERAL in the screenshot above, it looks like there was a quota of 382. Since there were 670 applicants, that means it was about 57% draw rate?

Now, if I look at the preference point results from 2018, REGION Y GENERAL had a quota of 692 with zero points. There were 1362 applicants. See below.

So, what the heck is the difference between a random draw application and a zero preference point application?

Sorry if this is basic question. Either way, I may just continue to do the special random draw (for deer) since it's virtually guaranteed in most regions.

 

[LCH]

Maybe you guys can help me understand the difference between the results of the random draw and preference point with zero points. Using REGION Y GENERAL in the screenshot above, it looks like there was a quota of 382. Since there were 670 applicants, that means it was about 57% draw rate?

Now, if I look at the preference point results from 2018, REGION Y GENERAL had a quota of 692 with zero points. There were 1362 applicants. See below.

So, what the heck is the difference between a random draw application and a zero preference point application?

Sorry if this is basic question. Either way, I may just continue to do the special random draw (for deer) since it's virtually guaranteed in most regions.

View attachment 103650

Your understanding of the odds posted above and the draw process seem to be flawed in several areas, understandably so for someone new to the process. Watch Randy's Youtube video on the Wyoming draw process, it explains every bit of this in a straightforward way.

 

[TOGIE]

re: in response to what's the difference between a zero point application, where you can draw with zero vs. the random draw

would it be correct to say that the random draw is for leftover APPLICANTS? in contrast to the incorrect theory that it is for leftover tags. You essentially get a random chance at the remaining tags with 0 points with other 0 point applicants and if you lose out you go into the random pool with everyone else who didn't draw. same would apply if it was a 1 point basement and you had a point, but there were only enough tags for half the one point applications.

 

[LCH]

Take the quota for region Y, regular pp draw = 1146
Regular random draw quota = 382
Total tags available in regular draw = 1528

Total applicants = 1816
Applicants drawing in pp draw = 1146
1816 apps - 1146 successful = 670 unsuccessful apps rolled into random draw
382 successful/670 apps = 57% in random

Total zero point apps = 1362
tags awarded to zero point applicants in regular draw=1074 (382 random draw + 692 pp draw)
1074/1362=79% overall odds for zero point holders

These are the simple odds.

 

[justinch]

Take the quota for region Y, regular pp draw = 1146
Regular random draw quota = 382
Total tags available in regular draw = 1528

Total applicants = 1816
Applicants drawing in pp draw = 1146
1816 apps - 1146 successful = 670 unsuccessful apps rolled into random draw
382 successful/670 apps = 57% in random

Total zero point apps = 1362
tags awarded to zero point applicants in regular draw=1074 (382 random draw + 692 pp draw)
1074/1362=79% overall odds for zero point holders

These are the simple odds.

This makes perfect sense. You are right, I definitely misunderstood a number of things. Thanks!