Population Growth and Hunting in Rocky Mountain States

[Deleted member 16014]

Housing Data

Note: We make frequent changes to the download paths for CSVs and ask that users who have standard code to ingest our data consider switching to the Econ Data API to avoid that code being affected by these changes.

www.zillow.com

You might be interested in some of these resources, I find that sometimes we can get bogged down in anecdotal experience and it's important to look at trends.

Lots of interesting things to talk about here but some of the ones that jumped out at me.

-Montana is tiny... the entire state population wouldn't make it a top 10 US city. Very little net migration, all things considered, can have a huge effect. Most people are moving to Texas, AZ, GA, WA, and FL.

-Are people leaving high prices in CA, yes, but mostly they are dispersing into other parts of the state from the expensive cities, and the total state pop is increasing.

-CA prices despite what anyone says about the state being a shit hole are still increasing, it is still a very desirable place to live and lots of people are moving there, many from MT.

I included Eagle county where I am from, one of the epicenters of herds dwindling because of an explosion of pressure on winter range habitat from development and non-consumptive. Prices are coming down slightly in Eagle, I'm not sure why... perhaps enough affordable housing developments have been built to offset all the mega mansions being built.


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Blue, counties people are leaving to
Orange counties people are coming from

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There you go again screwing up everyone's rants with data. All those people leaving Gallatin MT for Sweetwater WY have probably since taken up with a cult in the dunes or otherwise disappeared off the face of the earth so we're good here.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I pulled up her FB profile and it looks like she is also one of the transplants turning MT more red.

Anyone got $5,000 to get a answer.

Statewide Voter File Information - Official Montana Secretary of State Website - Christi Jacobsen

Upon request, the Secretary of State shall furnish to any individual, for noncommercial use available extracts and reports from the statewide voter

sosmt.gov

I found Presidential election data... that's about as good a stand in as you're likely to get...

 

[Deleted member 18333]

All those people leaving Gallatin MT for Sweetwater WY have probably since taken up with a cult in the dunes

We prefer to be called a faith community, thank you very much.

 

[Deleted member 16014]

We prefer to be called a faith community, thank you very much.

The tusk giveth and the tusk taketh away.

 

[BlazerBeam]

U.S. County Migration Patterns

Housing Data

Note: We make frequent changes to the download paths for CSVs and ask that users who have standard code to ingest our data consider switching to the Econ Data API to avoid that code being affected by these changes.

www.zillow.com

You might be interested in some of these resources, I find that sometimes we can get bogged down in anecdotal experience and it's important to look at trends.

Lots of interesting things to talk about here but some of the ones that jumped out at me.

-Montana is tiny... the entire state population wouldn't make it a top 10 US city. Very little net migration, all things considered, can have a huge effect. Most people are moving to Texas, AZ, GA, WA, and FL.

-Are people leaving high prices in CA, yes, but mostly they are dispersing into other parts of the state from the expensive cities, and the total state pop is increasing.

-CA prices despite what anyone says about the state being a shit hole are still increasing, it is still a very desirable place to live and lots of people are moving there, many from MT.

I included Eagle county where I am from, one of the epicenters of herds dwindling because of an explosion of pressure on winter range habitat from development and non-consumptive. Prices are coming down slightly in Eagle, I'm not sure why... perhaps enough affordable housing developments have been built to offset all the mega mansions being built.


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Blue, counties people are leaving to
Orange counties people are coming from

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Yeah I think that a lot of the nationwide increase in housing probably has something to do with all of the prohibiting of evictions and available rent assistance and all of that stuff that has been put in place due to COVID. Has probably thrown a wrench in things.

But a lot of the data available does not reflect what I've seen in the past 4-5 months. People moving here has accelerated RAPIDLY. At least that's the buzz around here. Much more than the growth that has been occurring over the past few years. So while I think COVID relief bills and all that has affected the general nationwide increase in housing costs, the increase in this neck of the woods, I believe is more due to the fact that a house is on the market for at most a day right now before it receives a dozen full price offers and half a dozen more that are over asking price. The next time that realtor lists a house that is comparable, he or she is going to list for higher than the previous. And so on. At least this is what my neighbor has told me, who has been an agent for 15 years. For example: a house that was listed in my neighborhood early last year for $425,000 and then taken off the market when the COVID debacle started just sold last week for $699,000 after being listed for two days. Plastic Surgeon from Washington. A property in Custer, MT was listed last year for $1.2 million, taken off the market, just relisted for $2.6 million. Tyler Mulvaney, builder of Dead Down Range rifles as well as an agent who specializes in high dollar/large acreage ranches will tell you that he has had an insane record year in transactions completed with people from CA, CO, WA, east coast, and actually other mountain states. I also just bought some gun powder from a fella that had just packed up his stuff and road tripped out here from PA with no place to live yet and he was going to check out and decide between Cody, Red Lodge, and Bozeman. He of course settled on Bozeman.

I know people are just trying to get away from the hustle and bustle and especially the restrictions that have been imposed on them this past year. But while the population of MT is tiny compared to other states, we are speaking about MT in terms of hunting opportunity and wildlife conservation. Also, MT has a lot of private land despite being such a large state. Considering all of that, I think data should be closely monitored going forward, and IF (and only IF) there appears to be declines in deer and elk herds or harvest numbers go down due to increasing pressure on public lands pushing them onto private, changes to the seasons maybe need to occur. And maybe even reforms to hunting private land somehow, because technically those 5,000 elk running around on the Wilkes bros property are a state resource

 

[Desk Pop]

Idaho had the highest percentage of people move there in 2020 of all 50 states. Our population went up 2.2% in 2020. If that percentage trend stays the same, Idaho will have a 50% growth in just 20 years. If the same occurred in California, there would go from 40,000,000 to 60,000,000 in 20 years. California's population has been growing since it became a state, until like two years ago when it went flat and then down.

This is from multiple factors, most of which we are just guessing at. International immigration dropped quite a bit for one thing...but to deny people are leaving California seems a little goofy. I do not think just looking at home prices tells the entire story. There is definitely lag time in home prices in a place as saturated as California. The truth of the matter is that people are leaving California.

The population of California in 2020 was 39,368,078, a 0.18% decline from 2019.
The population of California in 2019 was 39,437,610, a 0% increase from 2018.
The population of California in 2018 was 39,437,463, a 0.25% increase from 2017.
The population of California in 2017 was 39,337,785, a 0.48% increase from 2016.

This is even more amazing considering that although international immigration (legal and illegal) was suppressed more than normal in recent history, California is a state that still gets a lot of immigrants. You can ask those who leave why, and everyone will have his or her own answer, but I suspect it might have something to do with people getting tired of the politics, or results of the policies, and the way they handle crisis....and/or trying to get out of the congestion and valuing space after COVID. Who knows? But it doesn't take many people leaving high population states (especially ones with 40 million people) and coming to Idaho (as an example) to have a pretty profound effect on a state with only 1.7 million people.

Now, to my comment on California being a shithole, that is my opinion. I live in Idaho. I moved here to hunt public land. That was the only reason I moved. Most Californias would probably think Idaho is a shithole with too few jobs, all of which are underpaid to their standards. They would smell a cow patty and vomit, and see my hounds and bird dogs and think I should go to prison for life (because they don't believe in capital punishment) on account of how lean they are. I already have had some great conversations with California transplants walking their sweater-clad Pomeranians coming off the mountain in winter with a couple of my collared up hounds and happy buddy who has a bloody pack with a mountain lion's tail sticking out of the top.

That is why they live there and I live here.

I do like what someone wrote about assimilating to the culture you choose to migrate to...to some extent. It shouldn't be a surprise when you get to where you are going. Anyone who comes to Idaho and openly advocates against hunting and firearm ownership is no different than an American taking a plane to Nepal, getting off the plane and telling everyone they should speak English and accept the dollar as their new currency, and then try to get it on the ballot.

I have been to California. I have seen the needles, the piles of shit in the street and the homeless camps. This is a small part of California and I realize that, but the policies enacted by their law makers (empowered by the voters) to remedy said problems, quell riots and chaos and maintain some semblance of order will not improve their situation anytime soon. If anything, most policies will exacerbate those situations. The state is deteriorating. I suspect that has something to do with recent population trends.

But again, they can move, reside to anywhere they want and vote however they want. It's America. My argument isn't to keep them out. My argument is that they will have a bigger negative impact on Idaho's hunting through their voting than people who come here specifically for hunting opportunities.

Beautiful Los Angeles....

 

[hank4elk]

Now I sorta know how Pe-Pe, Mangas Coloradas, Chochise, and Geranimo felt. Well,not even close.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

This is from multiple factors, most of which we are just guessing at. International immigration dropped quite a bit for one thing...but to deny people are leaving California seems a little goofy. I do not think just looking at home prices tells the entire story. There is definitely lag time in home prices in a place as saturated as California. The truth of the matter is that people are leaving California.

The population of California in 2020 was 39,368,078, a 0.18% decline from 2019.
The population of California in 2019 was 39,437,610, a 0% increase from 2018.
The population of California in 2018 was 39,437,463, a 0.25% increase from 2017.
The population of California in 2017 was 39,337,785, a 0.48% increase from 2016.

I agree with most of what you said, I was more pointing out the numbers, so per your numbers above from 2017 to 2018 CA added ~100k. That's 10% of Montana, an entire city of Billings moved to CA. Percentage wise small, but way more people are moving to CA than to MT or ID or CO.

Also that's net ^ there are probably like 100,000k that left and 200,000k that moved there.

Really I'm just arguing migration is complicated and you can't explain away everything with a quip as we all so often try.

 

[Desk Pop]

I agree with most of what you said, I was more pointing out the numbers, so per your numbers above from 2017 to 2018 CA added ~100k. That's 10% of Montana, an entire city of Billings moved to CA. Percentage wise small, but way more people are moving to CA than to MT or ID or CO.

Also that's net ^ there are probably like 100,000k that left and 200,000k that moved there.

Really I'm just arguing migration is complicated and you can't explain away everything with a quip as we all so often try.

Yes. I agree. It is complicated. Population numbers vs ratios (like you said)...reasons (every person has their own). Legal vs illegal makes it more murky because one group is often easier to count than the other.

But yes....very complicated.

Important thing is that populations in western hunting states is rising quick and will have an impact on hunting laws and opportunity.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Yes. I agree. It is complicated. Population numbers vs ratios (like you said)...reasons (every person has their own). Legal vs illegal makes it more murky because one group is often easier to count than the other.

But yes....very complicated.

Important thing is that populations in western hunting states is rising quick and will have an impact on hunting laws and opportunity.

Does make you wonder... did the New England hunters give up because of access or did they just move to the Rockies lol

 

[SAJ-99]

I agree with most of what you said, I was more pointing out the numbers, so per your numbers above from 2017 to 2018 CA added ~100k. That's 10% of Montana, an entire city of Billings moved to CA. Percentage wise small, but way more people are moving to CA than to MT or ID or CO.

Also that's net ^ there are probably like 100,000k that left and 200,000k that moved there.

Really I'm just arguing migration is complicated and you can't explain away everything with a quip as we all so often try.

@IdahoNick, I think ID has a legit beef, because you have been at the top of the list for a few years now. It isn't just Covid. But I'm sure the Boise Commerce Department welcomes those people with open arms. As much as you don't like CA, it does account for 15% of the entire country's GDP. All those jobs are why people go there. The taxes are why most people leave.

@wllm1313, I assure you that no sane person from CA would move to Billings.

Interesting report. The only issue is that this is people who can afford a moving company.
https://www.northamerican.com/migration-map

 

[elkduds]

 

[Desk Pop]

Does make you wonder... did the New England hunters give up because of access or did they just move to the Rockies lol

Hahahaha

 

[Desk Pop]

Does make you wonder... did the New England hunters give up because of access or did they just move to the Rockies lol

"Pa did not like a country so old and worn out the hunting was poor. He wanted to move west."
-Laura Ingalls Wilder

Probably a bit of both.

 

[mtmuley]

@mtmuley might say this is able as workable as asking people to stop moving here, but the discussion needs people with different views.

What different views? Different than Montanans that are already here and recognize the issues? Or to implement the views they bring here from somewhere else? Yeah. Bring on the people. Then, as I've said before, the bitching about lack of resource will be top priority. mtmuley

 

[SAJ-99]

What different views? Different than Montanans that are already here and recognize the issues? Or to implement the views they bring here from somewhere else? Yeah. Bring on the people. Then, as I've said before, the bitching about lack of resource will be top priority. mtmuley

It already is, isn't it? This thread is just a side show.

 

[mtmuley]

It already is, isn't it? This thread is just a side show.

Yep. mtmuley

 

[jlmatthew]

Ask your California transplants where they were born. 50% of Californians arent from California. Look at the population declines the last 50 years in the major cities of Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, etc...
Then you’ll see how it all started

 

[brownbear932008]

I was over in Saratoga the other day and there was an old WY native yelling at Californians across the pool to "leave your bag of shit where you came from". Good times.


Fortunately Wyoming will not have the jobs which are available in CO, MT, ID, etc... so it should not be as bad here.


Out of curiosity have you folks back East noticed people moving to no growth coal states like WV to get away from DC, Pittsburg, etc...

Yes at a rate probably much higher than you Westerners deal with. They bring the big city money and buy cheap here settling down out of the hustle. It seems to have accelerated since COVID.

 

[Rancho Loco]

The last time there was near unrestricted immigrating 100+ years ago, those immigrants homesteaded millions of acres of public land and put the plow to a whole lot of land that should have never been farmed.
I am all for some form of regulated immigration, but the current free for all continues for very long it is not going to end well for wild places and the animals that need them.

Sorry to rain on your parade but we could shut immigration down to zero tonight and it's still not going to end well for those wild places and critters.