Point Creep realistic topping out number

[JAG]

Sir, I’m going to need your reply in .xls or .xlsx format.

@wllm1313 or @BuzzH; I've looked over the WGFD website for demographics of hunters (especially age and points) for various species. Where is that? If you have a copy, will you please send it.

 

[hank4elk]

I just gave up 12 years ago.
Max points for years & no elk or quality deer tags in CA.
2 or so less than max for UT for 10 years,no tags.
Only AZ tags I ever got were OTC as resident. MT as NR.

Now the quality deer are gone & I have elk in my yard.

 

[jt13]

I think someone on here summed it up once as "Your odds don't get better, they just get worse at a slower rate" regarding bonus points.

A vital but missing part of that summary:

"and anyone not in on the ground floor will be so far behind they won't even dream of being able to draw a tag"

I'm fairly certain I'm wasting my money in AZ on points. In WY I'm getting my money's worth until it goes to 90/10 then I'll be behind the curve, even on general tags. I buy bonus points in MT... I'm not really sure why...

 

[BradA]

I just gave up 12 years ago.
Max points for years & no elk or quality deer tags in CA.
2 or so less than max for UT for 10 years,no tags.
Only AZ tags I ever got were OTC as resident. MT as NR.

Now the quality deer are gone & I have elk in my yard.

What about sheep in California? You max for sheep ?

 

[hank4elk]

What about sheep in California? You max for sheep ?

Nope,not a sheep hunter. Just observer. But 1 less than max for elk & never enough for Goodale...lol
It was a grand place to hunt at one time. I have no other complaints now that I think about it. I have lots of blacktail racks and a last Inyo mule deer rack I look at.

 

[BigGameDIY]

The point of any draw is to fairly allocated tags when demand, outstrips supply. 'Collapse' occurs when it becomes so painfully obvious that the "fair" part of that first clause has gone out the window, and the resident voters of a given state demand the system be changed.

Theoretically it might be possible but practically it will never happen. Is casino fair? No, but addicted people will never stop going there until they are out of money.

There is no system that would be fair to everybody. Random draw is sucks, bonus points is sucks, preference points is horrible, hybrid is not good, who cares, our planning is most important. There is some great over the counter and easy to draw hunts, I enjoy them every year and bring delicious meat home while applying for some hard to draw hunts. If somebody decides to keep buying points and chasing that point creep, it is their choice, we can just wish them good luck.

There is opportunity for everybody, we just need to be happy with the great opportunities we have and go hunting every year.

 

[ImBillT]

Theoretically it might be possible but practically it will never happen. Is casino fair? No, but addicted people will never stop going there until they are out of money.

There is no system that would be fair to everybody. Random draw is sucks, bonus points is sucks, preference points is horrible, hybrid is not good, who cares, our planning is most important. There is some great over the counter and easy to draw hunts, I enjoy them every year and bring delicious meat home while applying for some hard to draw hunts. If somebody decides to keep buying points and chasing that point creep, it is their choice, we can just wish them good luck.

There is opportunity for everybody, we just need to be happy with the great opportunities we have and go hunting every year.

You don’t think point systems can collapse? It has already happened before, and it will happen again.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Theoretically it might be possible but practically it will never happen.

Maybe we disagree on the term collapse, if you have a preference point system and then switch to a hybrid after 10 years that system collapsed in my view.

Which is basically what has happened over and over again.

The CO system did, residents got pissed and they brought in the hybrid...

 

[Schaaf]

I’m not going to read all 8 pages but I’ve come to accept that it’s only going to get worse and outliving the bastards is hopeful, at best.

 

[RobertD]

I’m not going to read all 8 pages but I’ve come to accept that it’s only going to get worse and outliving the bastards is hopeful, at best.

My grandad used to say
"It'll feel better as soon as it quits hurtin"

Feels like that applies to point creep somehow

 

[BigGameDIY]

Maybe we disagree on the term collapse, if you have a preference point system and then switch to a hybrid after 10 years that system collapsed in my view.

Which is basically what has happened over and over again.

The CO system did, residents got pissed and they brought in the hybrid...

I believe we were talking about collapse because hunters get tired of unfair system and stop gambling in those point scams. Of course it will collapse if dfg comes up with some worse scam or just ban hunting.

 

[ImBillT]

Maybe we disagree on the term collapse, if you have a preference point system and then switch to a hybrid after 10 years that system collapsed in my view.

Which is basically what has happened over and over again.

The CO system did, residents got pissed and they brought in the hybrid...

I totally agree that major changes that anger those who bought in early is a type of collapse.

If I’m not mistaken, MT actually eliminated points entirely, and then brought them back later.

 

[ImBillT]

I believe we were talking about collapse because hunters get tired of unfair system and stop gambling in those point scams. Of course it will collapse if dfg comes up with some worse scam or just ban hunting.

Hunters getting tired of the unfair system is why states move from preference to hybrid systems, or regular points, to squared or cubed, and at least once, went from a point system to a random system.

 

[s10]

For point creep to stop, the states will have to modify their regs in the process.

 

[Zim]

I totally agree that major changes that anger those who bought in early is a type of collapse.

If I’m not mistaken, MT actually eliminated points entirely, and then brought them back later.

New Mexico also had a points system that was scrapped back in the early 90’s. I’ve not met anyone that remembers this, it was so long ago. But back then, pre-internet, no app mags, no YouTube videos, paper apps, app numbers were a drop in the bucket so they could cycle any point holders rather than screw them.

How things have changed. Used to draw slammer tags in random draws yearly. In fact now even with 25+ points in some states, the last one I drew in a random based lottery was a full ten years ago. 2012 moose in New Hampshire. I’ve drawn plenty since then, but only in preference based lotteries.

 

[LopeHunter]

New Mexico also had a points system that was scrapped back in the early 90’s. I’ve not met anyone that remembers this, it was so long ago. But back then, pre-internet, no app mags, no YouTube videos, paper apps, app numbers were a drop in the bucket so they could cycle any point holders rather than screw them.

How things have changed. Used to draw slammer tags in random draws yearly. In fact now even with 25+ points in some states, the last one I drew in a random based lottery was a full ten years ago. 2012 moose in New Hampshire. I’ve drawn plenty since then, but only in preference based lotteries.

When you drew in the preference side of the draw, did you ever draw again for that species in that state? I ask because the Max pool in a Preference Point system is King then after a few draws Max-1 steps up to rake in primo tags for a few draws then Max-2 though by then has been 10 or 20 years so Max-3 now has 10 or 20 points and has to decide if gives up on the dream of Primo tag that seemed a lock back when bought that first point but now is tauntingly just out of reach so decides to settle for a good tag. The challenge is as you go back to 0 Preference Points you are now decades from being the top of the point pyramid yet expected life expectancy is coming into play as well as health issues.

Bonus Point systems or Hybrid Point/Random systems offer some hope to us all though being a few years late to the start of the system significantly reduces your odds at any fully subscribed tag. You get a tag and see your accumulated points fall to 0 then get back in line and if Lady Luck shines on you then will beat the odds. Statistically your outcome is not good but some of us are very, very lucky and some of us are happy to aim lower than Primo Units to hunt more often.

I have to say the nightmare scenario for me is to play the game a few decades and finally reach the entrance to Primo land with a Dream Tag yet is a dry spring so antler growth is weak or was a terrible late winter in April that decimated the mature animals or a forest fire closes access or I tweak a knee or the Feds go on strike or they lose a job or find a job that won't allow vacation during the season. All of those things have happened to friends of mine over the years. My motto is a tag in the hand with a 50% harvest success rate for average animals is okay with me.

 

[Zim]

When you drew in the preference side of the draw, did you ever draw again for that species in that state? I ask because the Max pool in a Preference Point system is King then after a few draws Max-1 steps up to rake in primo tags for a few draws then Max-2 though by then has been 10 or 20 years so Max-3 now has 10 or 20 points and has to decide if gives up on the dream of Primo tag that seemed a lock back when bought that first point but now is tauntingly just out of reach so decides to settle for a good tag. The challenge is as you go back to 0 Preference Points you are now decades from being the top of the point pyramid yet expected life expectancy is coming into play as well as health issues.

Bonus Point systems or Hybrid Point/Random systems offer some hope to us all though being a few years late to the start of the system significantly reduces your odds at any fully subscribed tag. You get a tag and see your accumulated points fall to 0 then get back in line and if Lady Luck shines on you then will beat the odds. Statistically your outcome is not good but some of us are very, very lucky and some of us are happy to aim lower than Primo Units to hunt more often.

I have to say the nightmare scenario for me is to play the game a few decades and finally reach the entrance to Primo land with a Dream Tag yet is a dry spring so antler growth is weak or was a terrible late winter in April that decimated the mature animals or a forest fire closes access or I tweak a knee or the Feds go on strike or they lose a job or find a job that won't allow vacation during the season. All of those things have happened to friends of mine over the years. My motto is a tag in the hand with a 50% harvest success rate for average animals is okay with me.

Yes, AZ unit 1 archery elk & AZ Kaibab archery deer (before it became the rage). That’s it.

 

[Northwoods]

After not drawing an elk tag in Wyoming this year I’m done playing the points game. I’ll buy another Wyoming point or two until I draw but I just can’t justify the expense of collecting multiple points in multiple states. There’s plenty of hunting opportunities outside the points game. It’s about time I learned how to hunt ducks anyhow. I know nobody is sad about one less person buying points. Just wanted to share my thoughts on “point creep.”

 

[winmag]

68

If youth can start getting points at 12, and are too frail to hunt at 80, then theoretically point creep will come to an abrupt halt at 68 points. So we’ve got a long way to go!

 

[Blackcats06]

A vital but missing part of that summary:

"and anyone not in on the ground floor will be so far behind they won't even dream of being able to draw a tag"

I'm fairly certain I'm wasting my money in AZ on points. In WY I'm getting my money's worth until it goes to 90/10 then I'll be behind the curve, even on general tags. I buy bonus points in MT... I'm not really sure why...

What are you doing in AZ that is a waste?