Point Creep realistic topping out number

[WapitiBob]

Max points for AZ Elk right now is 32, people aren't going anywhere. Evidently, drawing a tag isn't a priority either.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Mathematically I’m not sure you can account for all variables. You could account for age if you simply nee what percentage of the population reached a certain age, which is absolutely you could model that accurately. So that’s what I attempted to model. Im sure I screwed something up too but that’s the best I could do under the circumstances.

The point which mortality is that it 'accrues' over time like interest, it doesn't just "compound" at the maturity. So like if you invest $1000 you get 5% a year not 5% at every year. Same with mortality, every people will die that means that each year their are fewer applicants.

So like
3463
3432
3398
3364
3329
and so on until at some age it's zero.
it's not
3463
3463
3463
3463
3463
then 75 and half die.

One has to model this red trend line I drew in.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

In real life, yeah, there are other things that take people out of preference point systems. For a lot of species you’re right that the max point pool will never reach the number of years in the system that my method predicted. For sheep I think the tag numbers are low enough and demand high enough, that not enough people drop out. Governor’s tags? How many people per year does that really take out of the pool? 1? From a system that clears 5-6 per year anyway. Governor’s tags aren’t limited to max point holders either. What percentage of governor’s tag holder were ever at max points? Has it ever even happened? The total percentage of max point holders cleared by governor’s tags is nearly meaningless.

Yeah I agree you can't model it you just kinda have to guess. Sure I'm sure some one in the top point pool in 1990 bought a sheep scratcher from oak and stopped putting in... someone had a baby and forgot to apply and lost their points... someone was injured at work and can't hunt... someone got deployed to war... etc etc. All of that together I'm guessing is 3% a year,

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Pissed off at the system?

How many true pref point systems are there... seems like hunters flip the table over... A lot... CO elk was a pref poin system but then they created the hybrid draw

Montana is talking about getting rid of all draw units... I mean shit happens.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

For NR sheep in NM it would take 455 years to clear the applicants from year 2021. 45yrs would only clear 225 applicants via tag. The other 1568 would have to be quite frustrated.

100% agree, and I think saying 455 years to clear is the correct way to describe the magnitude of the issue, but at the same type the OPs question was top realistic topping out number and I was trying to articulate why I don't think it will ever be 70 points.

 

[ImBillT]

100% agree, and I think saying 455 years to clear is the correct way to describe the magnitude of the issue, but at the same type the OPs question was top realistic topping out number and I was trying to articulate why I don't think it will ever be 70 points.

With no outlet, and a big enough carrot(think sheep) the realistic topping out number would only be slightly lower than whatever age is the healthiest % of population at that same tag distribution %. If tag/apps=.01% what age does the healthiest .01% stop hunting? Does 1/10,000(.01%) hunters hunt all the way to age 90? If so, they will reach max points, and no one else will beat them in a preference point system for that species if that species has no other significant outlet to remove applicants from the pool.

Im not saying that 1/10,000 hunters hunts all the way to age 90, or that “hunting to age 90” equals an interest in attempting a sheep hunt. Maybe that is 1/20,000, or maybe it’s 1/1000.

The definition of a preference system reaching maturity wouldn’t be reaching 455pts when it takes 455 years to clear apps. It would be 5/1794=.28% at what age do only .28% of original applicants continue to apply? That’s a lot lower age than 455. It’s obviously over 55(45pts starting at age 10). This first cycle of max point holders wouldn’t reach the limit either, because they didn’t all enter at age 10. Eventually it would reach the limit of whatever age the healthiest .28% of hunters ceases hunting. This only pertains to species with limited hunt codes. There is a rifle elk tag in NM that would take 242yrs to clear applicants from 2021, BUT if elk was only one hunt code, it would only take 18 years to clear all the applicants. If NM went to a preference system, the max point pool would exceed 18pts because people would apply for the 242yr tag for longer than 18yrs, BUT it would not nearly reach the number predicted by determining what age the top .41% of hunters continue to hunt at because there are numerous outlets that take fewer than 242yrs to clear. For sheep, the outlets are limited.

 

[ImBillT]

How many true pref point systems are there... seems like hunters flip the table over... A lot... CO elk was a pref poin system but then they created the hybrid draw

Montana is talking about getting rid of all draw units... I mean shit happens.

I’m talking about if we had a preference system and didn’t touch it.

I 100% believe we’re going to flip the tables over. What I’m describing is the foreseeable end of an untouched preference point system. If everyone could grasp it, the system would never be implemented. Instead, people see it as a way to get a tag(yet it doesn’t actually work) and implement it, then as it matures the people behind the early entries see how bad the system is as it plays out, and they come change it. It’s happened before. It will happen again.

 

[ImBillT]

Yeah I agree you can't model it you just kinda have to guess. Sure I'm sure some one in the top point pool in 1990 bought a sheep scratcher from oak and stopped putting in... someone had a baby and forgot to apply and lost their points... someone was injured at work and can't hunt... someone got deployed to war... etc etc. All of that together I'm guessing is 3% a year,

I’m modeling a theoretical maximum. Is it a good system if you have to rely on injuries at work and forgetting to apply to keep the max pool below 80pts?

You know as well as I, I’m just stating it for those reading.

Random Xtags/Yapps=Z%go hunting
Bonus. Xtags/Yapps=Z%go hunting
Pref pnt. Xtags/Yapps=Z%go hunting

The only thing that changed was when, and if you split it into enough hunt codes, where.

 

[ImBillT]

The point which mortality is that it 'accrues' over time like interest, it doesn't just "compound" at the maturity. So like if you invest $1000 you get 5% a year not 5% at every year. Same with mortality, every people will die that means that each year their are fewer applicants.

So like
3463
3432
3398
3364
3329
and so on until at some age it's zero.
it's not
3463
3463
3463
3463
3463
then 75 and half die.

One has to model this red trend line I drew in.
View attachment 211039

There is no need to address the middle for a preference point system. If you have enough tags to give .1% of applicants a tag, then you only need to know what age it is where only .1% of applicants continues to hunt. If we just simplify it to death, and have an imaginary point system that started a LOOOOOONG time ago, and has .1% of tags per applicant, the age at which only .1% of people are still living is the theoretical age of the max point pool. The first cycle won’t get there, but later cycles will. If .1% of applicants hunt to age 80, or 90, you can’t clear them from the system with preference points or with the death of their peers by handing out .1% as many tags as there are applicants.

Draw a horizontal line where the percentage of applicants who receive tags equals the percentage of people still alive, and that’s the age of max point holders once your system matures ASSUMING ONLY DEATH OR DRAWING clears an applicant. The more desirable the tag, the closer to that line the real number will be. It cannot cross the line to go higher.

@wllm1313 added to this one after you read it.

 

[Gr8bawana]

I don't see preference points, anymore. I live in NM & quit buying them elsewhere..

Bingo!!!
Nobody is forcing us at gunpoint to apply for these tags.

 

[BrentD]

Bingo!!!
Nobody is forcing us at gunpoint to apply for these tags.

Keep in mind two things. 1. These points were sold under the pretenses of a given set of rules - that seem to be changing, and not for the better in the case of most point holders. 2. They are being sold, mostly to be used on public property for which all of the point owners are also property owners.

My news feed today tells me that some beach fishing permits in Delaware sold out in only 4 hrs. I have no idea what this is all about, but I would not be surprised to see the point system coming to fishing one day too.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

The first cycle won’t get there, but later cycles will.

This is a great point.

Also if you think about Bonus point systems it's even crazier in some ways...

For instance at like year 10 you might have 100 people out of the top point pool being taken out of the running because collectively their cohort might hold 25% of the total tickets. So at year 10 you might be like "oh bonus points kinda work we are clearing out people"


but then as the years go along, because you are letting some people at lower levels have tags, the system slows down profoundly with people with max points getting drawn at a much slower rate.




And this is with a pillared point pool same year after year, it's a mountain in reality 5000 at 0 points 10 at top. Basically meaning that every year you are in a bonus pool your odds are probably getting worse in reality because for every squared point you gain 3000 folks are joining so at 40 bonus points your still losing ground to the onslaught of newcomers.

So who wants to buy points?

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Keep in mind two things. 1. These points were sold under the pretenses of a given set of rules - that seem to be changing, and not for the better in the case of most point holders. 2. They are being sold, mostly to be used on public property for which all of the point owners are also property owners.

My news feed today tells me that some beach fishing permits in Delaware sold out in only 4 hrs. I have no idea what this is all about, but I would not be surprised to see the point system coming to fishing one day too.

If you have a permit you get to drive your car on the beach... if you don't have one you have to walk. My buddy get's one, brings his rod... never baits a line.

 

[Gr8bawana]

Keep in mind two things. 1. These points were sold under the pretenses of a given set of rules - that seem to be changing, and not for the better in the case of most point holders. 2. They are being sold, mostly to be used on public property for which all of the point owners are also property owners.

My news feed today tells me that some beach fishing permits in Delaware sold out in only 4 hrs. I have no idea what this is all about, but I would not be surprised to see the point system coming to fishing one day too.

As I said, you don't have to keep applying. Or maybe just keep applying so you can keep bitchin about it.
Also those sold-out permits are State Park surf fishing permits for the peak period only. There is no cap for off-peak surf fishing permits.

 

[BrentD]

As I said, you don't have to keep applying. Or maybe just keep applying so you can keep bitchin about it.

You just don't get it. But that's okay. Just don't come looking for my support of big game hunting one day. It might not be there.

 

[RobertD]

This is a great point.

Also if you think about Bonus point systems it's even crazier in some ways...

For instance at like year 10 you might have 100 people out of the top point pool being taken out of the running because collectively their cohort might hold 25% of the total tickets. So at year 10 you might be like "oh bonus points kinda work we are clearing out people"
View attachment 211074

but then as the years go along, because you are letting some people at lower levels have tags, the system slows down profoundly with people with max points getting drawn at a much slower rate.


View attachment 211075

And this is with a pillared point pool same year after year, it's a mountain in reality 5000 at 0 points 10 at top. Basically meaning that every year you are in a bonus pool your odds are probably getting worse in reality because for every squared point you gain 3000 folks are joining so at 40 bonus points your still losing ground to the onslaught of newcomers.

So who wants to buy points?

I think someone on here summed it up once as "Your odds don't get better, they just get worse at a slower rate" regarding bonus points.

 

[QuazyQuinton]

I think someone on here summed it up once as "Your odds don't get better, they just get worse at a slower rate" regarding bonus points.

Compared to a random draw where they start out terrible and just stay terrible. Sorry, couldn't help it....

QQ

 

[ImBillT]

Keep in mind two things. 1. These points were sold under the pretenses of a given set of rules - that seem to be changing, and not for the better in the case of most point holders. 2. They are being sold, mostly to be used on public property for which all of the point owners are also property owners.

My news feed today tells me that some beach fishing permits in Delaware sold out in only 4 hrs. I have no idea what this is all about, but I would not be surprised to see the point system coming to fishing one day too.

This is why I’m reluctant to support schemes that keep out future potential users in favor of those who are already participating. You starting to hunt in AZ or MT or wherever before I was born doesn’t give you the right to keep me out. It’s no more your property than mine. You had the benefit of hunting it(or better odds etc.) for many years without me participating, and now that I want to begin participating I should have equal odds compared to those who were already doing so. Points are not the answer for public property and public resources.

As far as points being sold to folks and then the system changing, I’m pretty sure most if not all points today come with the quite the disclaimer. If they did not always, then perhaps there is a lawsuit to be had when a system changes.

 

[Deleted member 16014]

My bet is that "good" western public land hunting is going to hell before any of these theoreticals play out anyway. Best not take today for granted.

 

[RobertD]

My bet is that "good" western public land hunting is going to hell before any of these theoreticals play out anyway. Best not take today for granted.

Tough to have to agree but I do.