Point Creep realistic topping out number

[gouch]

I Can't imagine people being more satisfied with random drawings. Yes everyone does has an equal chance but inevitably many people are going to apply unsuccessfully year after year while watching others draw the tag seemingly every year. Those people will be clamoring for the good old point system we use to have. Especially if the guy drawing the tag year after year happens to be, heaven forbid, a Non-resident.

 

[seeth07]

At some point if interest keeps going up, the only fair solution for non residents is going to make it kinda like Nevada with waiting periods and they will just eventually have to be all once in a lifetime. However, it will never be fair because the money incoming is way to much. So as long as people keep paying for .1 percent chance at a tag, they will keep the systems in place regardless of how unfair it is and having it take 50 PP to draw a tag

 

[BuzzH]

On the other side is people like my father in law. Cancer at age 68. He is done hunting even if he lives another 5 years. Yes there are people with deep pockets that are old and can buy the things you stated. My father in law was one of those that is now out of that group. Reality is people are very sick in this country. The average age of death is going down not up. And the last years for many is not in a state of health that they could go on most kinds of hunts. I do plan on being the minority that can hunt beyond 70 but I know that most will not be able to. What we need to look at is on average. My Great-grandmother drove a car into her 90's. But not normal most people don't even live that long.

People that hunt, fish, trap all the time...they aren't the ones that are sick.

As Bud Moore said, "The days you spend in the woods...hunting, trapping, fishing...those days don't count against you"....and he was right.

 

[WildWill]

At some point if interest keeps going up, the only fair solution for non residents is going to make it kinda like Nevada with waiting periods and they will just eventually have to be all once in a lifetime. However, it will never be fair because the money incoming is way to much. So as long as people keep paying for .1 percent chance at a tag, they will keep the systems in place regardless of how unfair it is and having it take 50 PP to draw a tag

Great point! The loss of revenue is probably the only thing that would cause the collapse of the point system. A good question would be how long would that take?

 

[Gr8bawana]

The systems will collapse(or be heavily modified) before the creep hits the limit. Life expectancy is somewhere near 78. You can start applying on some point states by age 10. Is the limit 68pts or do enough people live past 78 to clog the system beyond 68pts? There aren’t enough tags to go around even on the poop units. Once people stop hoarding points in the units with 200yrs worth of applicants and start spreading into the low point units every unit will take a ton of points. I’ve heard plenty of stories of guys drawing a tag at an age where they could hardly get out of the truck. I doubt it ever occurred to them that their son or grandson could have drawn that tag and actually enjoyed it.

Montana eliminated points a long time ago, and then brought them back. AZ changed the system not to favor high point holders as much. It’s been done in the past, and it will be done again. The points you buy today are not likely what they will be twenty years from now. The tag you want today probably won’t be the same hunt twenty years from now either.

 

[ImBillT]

View attachment 210470

^^^Yet another useful and informative comment. ^^^

Tags/hunters=how often we can hunt.

Point schemes do not change that. They only skew the distribution from one that distributes tags evenly across age classes to one that favors only the elderly going hunting.

If you have participated in a random system longer than anyone else, you will most likely have drawn whatever tags you’re after more times than anyone else. No point scheme necessary.

 

[HONEYBADGER]

Ok so we all know point creep is getting worse. One thing I have not seen talked about is that at some age all people quit hunting. And they either burn the points, drop out due to lack of physical conditions or of course die as we all do just a matter of when. What age do these things happen on average? And another thing is what age are the people who have points at the different levels top to bottom? That would be a great thing to know. GoHunt is that data available? Someone who has say 20 points and is age 40 is much different then 20 points and age 65. When I hear there are over 100 years of points to go through in a system well how many will be done hunting at say 20, 30, or 40 points? A lot or even most I would have to say. Even lets' say someone starts buying points at age 12 the lowest in many states. Are they really going to buy points for the next 30 years and go on their first elk hunt at age 42? I doubt it at least for most people. Yes there are some with unlimited resources but things change and what was the long term plan could get thrown out the window in the next recession or other life changing events. And we are getting less young people hunting then in the past so if that continues along with older people dropping out the point creep could correct itself somewhat. Might take another 10-20 years? Thoughts on where or when do we basically top out at in points?

With all the hunting pimps out there now, and social media, point creep will only get worse.

 

[ChrisB]

People that hunt, fish, trap all the time...they aren't the ones that are sick.

As Bud Moore said, "The days you spend in the woods...hunting, trapping, fishing...those days don't count against you"....and he was right.

Very true. Just those number of people are going down. No one lives forever even if they outlive the majority. Who is replacing the 60-80 year old's that have been hunting fishing and trapping? More kids grow up in cities and less in the country then ever. It has changed drastically in my lifetime and no sign of it stopping anytime soon. Kids just have different interests nowadays like playing video games that didn't even exist in the past. I think we are closer to max points then many believe

 

[Pucky Freak]

CO had the opportunity to reform their PP system for elk a couple years ago, and instead they doubled down on the revenue stream by requiring the purchase of a small game license in order to buy points. There are informed guesses about what states might do about their flawed systems, but the only thing we can count on is continual change.

In theory, PP would top out in the high 50’s or low 60’s as people die off, but a state changing their system in any of a variety of ways counters that speculation.

Most point buyers start accumulating points in their 30’s but it’s the people whose parents started their points who are the true privileged class that get a far enough head start to eventually draw the glory tag.

PP, cubed random points, unlimited random points (ME moose), auction tags, governor/commissionor tags, etc. all directly erode the NA model of wildlife conservation, which serves as a warning to all of us to do what we can to fight for democratic change to tag systems, and fight against changes that favor of the privileged class of wealthy, connected families.

 

[Desk Pop]

Maybe they collapse, but I think we are a long ways from that. Why would they take away point systems when they are raking in money? Business is great and continues to grow despite a pandemic. States seeing a record number of applications aren't going to change what they're doing for shits and giggles. They'll change when they think they can make more money another way. Good or bad, I think we are stuck with points and point creep.

 

[Trial153]

PP, cubed random points, unlimited random points (ME moose), auction tags, governor/commissionor tags, etc. all directly erode the NA model of wildlife conservation, which serves as a warning to all of us to do what we can to fight for democratic change to tag systems, and fight against changes that favor of the privileged class of wealthy, connected familie

That ship has left the port.

Add in the continuing erosion of NR opportunities with residents carving out bigger and bigger pieces of the pie and you see more and more support for any measures that puts opportunities for tags on a capitalist platter.

DID YOU KNOW: 74% of wild sheep conservation funds come from either an auction or a raffle permit. Here are some recording-breaking numbers from Sheep Week® 2022.

#WildSheepFoundation #WSF #SheepWeek2022 #Conservation


[

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https://www.instagram.com/p/CZR-sL6M0S6/?utm_medium=copy_link

 

[Deleted member 18333]

Outfitters, packers, horses and long range rifles allow a person to hunt well beyond 70...

This is my plan minus the long range rifle.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Point systems will generally top out around 40-45.

 

[RobertD]

Point systems will generally top out around 40-45.

I'm certain I've seen you illustrate this in numbers, maybe Colorado elk?

 

[RobertD]

That ship has left the port.

Add in the continuing erosion of NR opportunities with residents carving out bigger and bigger pieces of the pie and you see more and more support for any measures that puts opportunities for tags on a capitalist platter.
View attachment 210503
DID YOU KNOW: 74% of wild sheep conservation funds come from either an auction or a raffle permit. Here are some recording-breaking numbers from Sheep Week® 2022.

#WildSheepFoundation #WSF #SheepWeek2022 #Conservation

To be fair, that's 74% of funds but not necessarily 74% of opportunities. And some of those funds are from raffles, which are decidedly more egalitarian than governor or auction tag.

I see your point, but in a way I can see how those tags kinda subsidize the tags that are in the draw.

 

[Pucky Freak]

That ship has left the port.

Today I emailed the subcommittee members of a house bill in IA that carves out buck tags for NRLO’s. There’s always a good fight to be had somewhere.

 

[Islander]

I paid for one point, once. Then I realized it was a bullshit scam. It favors those with funds over those without. Refuse to do it anymore. I will take over the counter, New Zealand, Texas private, and my own awesome state's generous hunting season.

It's not the money. I have plenty of disposable income. In my opinion this hurts the common man in many states as presently employed. I'm out.

 

[Trial153]

To be fair, that's 74% of funds but not necessarily 74% of opportunities. And some of those funds are from raffles, which are decidedly more egalitarian than governor or auction tag.

I see your point, but in a way I can see how those tags kinda subsidize the tags that are in the draw.

All the more reason to make more tags available to free market forces. If money equals conservation then why are we limiting the amount of money we take in. We should maximize our revenue. We should be getting tags to people that are willing to pay the most. If one governors tag is good…then 10 are really really good.
Let them eat cake

 

[RobertD]

All the more reason to make more tags available to free market forces. If money equals conservation then why are we limiting the amount of money we take in. We should maximize our revenue. We should be getting tags to people that are willing to pay the most. If one governors tag is good…then 10 are really really good.
Let them eat cake

Hope you don't think that's what I was driving at.

 

[seeth07]

All the more reason to make more tags available to free market forces. If money equals conservation then why are we limiting the amount of money we take in. We should maximize our revenue. We should be getting tags to people that are willing to pay the most. If one governors tag is good…then 10 are really really good.
Let them eat cake

In a very sad way, you are absolutely correct. In today's society, it unfortunately takes a lot of money for conservation and its a direct result of us humans and what we do to the landscape.

If the human race was wiped out in all of North america, I'm pretty sure that mother earth would crack a beer and smile knowing she can get back to where she was 500 years ago.