Otc Sheep

[mtmuley]

Take a spin through the draw odds. You most likely will never draw in your life regardless of how many points you have or what district you apply for. That is the reality of the “big three”. I blame it on destruction of habitat and pumped up demand. Maybe an influencer needs to do a podcast on how most people will never draw a tag.

Not lost on me at all. Odds are long no matter. I suppose l losing my squared points wouldn’t be a difference. Especially since I hold 22 mule deer points. mtmuley

 

[rogerthat]

Not lost on me at all. Odds are long no matter. I suppose l losing my squared points wouldn’t be a difference. Especially since I hold 22 mule deer points. mtmuley

I hope you draw your tags. I know a guy that is quite a hunter and had max sheep the first time around and max now again. He likely isn’t going to get that sheep tag drawn and still be able unless it happens soon

 

[cgasner1]

Nothing wrong with Montanas bonus point squared system. It’s a fine system. Theres no system that works for the really high demand tags like sheep tags or root muley tags.

I actually love the way our system works with the bonus points. The square adds a little more for the guys with time invested in but doesn’t guarantee a tag. In 21 for the final year of the 900-20 tag its was around 80% odds with no points. A resident applied with 8 points and didn’t get drawn. Either your name comes out of the hat or it doesn’t. As far as this subject on the otc sheep tags is concerned in my opinion the people that where worried about some of the guys coming in later with points just made the draw odds even worse for the le tags because of the amount of people that will just apply for le an not but the tag. Most people that buy that tag never even step foot in the mountain range and the people that pushed this thru their greed probably just added a few hundred more applications every year for those 60 le tags so nice work on that

 

[MTGomer]

OIL, especially in a 7 yr wait state, doesn’t do anything for odds in any statistically significant way.

Making it cost more than $15 to put in for a tag would though.

If you look at number of current applicants, applicant number trends and project that out to year 8 (first year OIL removes a single person from the draw, and look at the number of sheep tags given, you’ll see that in 8 years there will be thousands more applicants and you maybe took 100 people out of the draw, when you consider that not all of the people that drew a sheep tag would reapply anyway.

150/34500=0.00435
150/34600=0.00434

Making the tag not free is the second best way next to putting more sheep on the mountain to increase draw odds.

I was contextualizing the tags I've drawn.

And I'm all for the penalty box if it allows for better draw odds for people who haven't had those opportunities.

 

[Treeshark]

You can't change the rules after the game has started. mtmuley

 

[BuzzH]

Anyone that believes squaring bonus points gives them better odds needs to sharpen their pencils.

What crushes odds is the total number of people applying and all their squared bonus points.

How you beat draw odds is applying for your entire life for as many tags as you can.

 

[rogerthat]

Anyone that believes squaring bonus points gives them better odds needs to sharpen their pencils.

What crushes odds is the total number of people applying and all their squared bonus points.

How you beat draw odds is applying for your entire life for as many tags as you can.

I tend to agree with you on the really low odds draw but the bonus point squared system definitely works on the 1 in 10 to 1 in 20 type odds tags. It ensures most applicants eventually draw. You have drawn some amazing tags but for every lucky drawer there is an equally unlucky drawer. There’s guys that can go 20-30 years or longer not drawing a 1 in 10 fully random tag draw. It’s all part of the normal curve. The normal curve for a bonus point squared system generally should have a higher bell and less distribution. I think your correct that all system curves probably merge similarly on the super hard draws like sheep

 

[BuzzH]

I tend to agree with you on the really low odds draw but the bonus point squared system definitely works on the 1 in 10 to 1 in 20 type odds tags. It ensures most applicants eventually draw. You have drawn some amazing tags but for every lucky drawer there is an equally unlucky drawer. There’s guys that can go 20-30 years or longer not drawing a 1 in 10 fully random tag draw. It’s all part of the normal curve. The normal curve for a bonus point squared system generally should have a higher bell and less distribution. I think your correct that all system curves probably merge similarly on the super hard draws like sheep

Nope...sharpen your pencil.

Squared point system doesn't work if more and more people enter the draw.

People that think the squared point system works prove only one thing, they suck at math.

 

[rogerthat]

Nope...sharpen your pencil.

It doesn't work if more and more people enter the draw.

I think we agree. If more and more people enter the draw. Nevada case in point

 

[BuzzH]

I think we agree. If more and more people enter the draw. Nevada case in point

And Montana, even for decent odds tags. Why I'm the proud owner of 10 elk b tag points.

 

[Hams42]

And Montana, even for decent odds tags. Why I'm the proud owner of 10 elk b tag points.

That would be because you are putting in for the wrong area..... but i understand what you are saying.

 

[TheTone]

How you beat draw odds is applying for your entire life for as many tags as you can.

that’s the only way I’ve figured out to actually get ahead. The more spots you can put your name in the more you give yourself some type of additive advantage

The only other way a persons draw odds get better is by making someone else’s odds worse.

 

[mtmuley]

And Montana, even for decent odds tags. Why I'm the proud owner of 10 elk b tag points.

Hope you eventually draw and find a booner. I only have 4. mtmuley