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Odds of drawing one tag

joelweb

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Okay - here is a question for all of you statisticians.

I'm trying to find a statistical calculator to determine the odds that I will draw one limited entry big game tag in the 2015 big game drawings.

I apply for trophy big game tags in three states and I know the actual draw odds for each of those tags (mule deer, elk, sheep, etc).

What I'd like to know is what are the odds that I'll draw one of those tags in the coming year. Anyone know the mathematical formula for figuring this, or where I can plug the numbers into an online calculator?

thanks in advance.
 

Bambistew

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Believe you add odds, to determine the chance of drawing one. And multiply to determine the odds of two. For example you have 10, 20, 50%. Odds of drawing one would be 80%, odds of drawing all three would be 3%. I could be wrong, going off memory's of a statics class from 15 years ago.
 

BuzzH

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I can tell you that applying for 6-10 states a year with odds ranging from less than 1% to maybe 25% (not counting preference tags), I typically draw 1 or 2 a year.

Not sure on the exact math involved.

I used to worry about drawing too many tags, but have statistically, 100% quit worrying about that.
 

Steelhead

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I'm not a statistician but I asked one and he said the odds of drawing one is the opposite of the odds of drawing none....in the end there's a lot of hope involved. Here goes.
You've got 3 hunts with draw odds of: 5%, 10%, 20%
The odds of not drawing are:
.95 x .90 x .80 = .684 = 68.4%
So your odds of drawing one are 31.6% and not the 35% chance you'd get if'n you just added em up.
Or I could be totally wrong but it seems legit to me...
 

joelweb

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I don't think my odds would be the sum of the individual draw odds. Let's say I applied for 11 tags where the draw odds of each tag was 10%. If I was to just add up the sum of the individual draw odds, I'd have a 110% chance (guaranteed) of drawing at least one tag. That can't be right - my actual odds of drawing one tag must be lower than that.
 

ShootsManyBullets

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I think if I put in for enough draws, I will draw something somewhere and I usually do. Probably because I put in for a tag or 2 somewhere that I have a high probability of drawing so I can actually go hunt instead of reading about it here. My friends and family think I'm really lucky, but I'm really not. I just put in enough times that I eventually get a bite.

Not sure how to calculate all that as it's not a great use of my research time. Each event is independent of the others. I'm sure we have some folks on here that could give you a solid answer.
 

Steelhead

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I don't think my odds would be the sum of the individual draw odds. Let's say I applied for 11 tags where the draw odds of each tag was 10%. If I was to just add up the sum of the individual draw odds, I'd have a 110% chance (guaranteed) of drawing at least one tag. That can't be right - my actual odds of drawing one tag must be lower than that.

I get 0.686189404 chance to draw one tag...
 

VanHook

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I wouldn't worry too much about the exact odds of drawing a tag. Instead of doing math, do some research.
 

fowladdict

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I get 0.686189404 chance to draw one tag...

I got the exact same number you did. I used the attached equation. This is based on flipping a coin ten times and figuring out the probability of getting a heads at least one time.
 

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joelweb

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I wouldn't worry too much about the exact odds of drawing a tag. Instead of doing math, do some research.

If a guy wants to consider hunting opportunity in addition to trophy quality, draw odds should be a part of the research. Besides, it's fun...
 
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Gunner46

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The outcome of any one draw has absolutely no effect on the outcome of any subsequent draws. (i.e. not drawing in one will not change the odds of drawing in the next, and so on, for each draw).

Your odds of drawing a tag are what that tags odds are, and nothing more.
 

Steelhead

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The outcome of any one draw has absolutely no effect on the outcome of any subsequent draws. (i.e. not drawing in one will not change the odds of drawing in the next, and so on, for each draw).

Your odds of drawing a tag are what that tags odds are, and nothing more.

The question is what are the overall odds of drawing one tag if you put in for multiple tags.
 

Cornell2012

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I'm not a statistician but I asked one and he said the odds of drawing one is the opposite of the odds of drawing none....in the end there's a lot of hope involved. Here goes.
You've got 3 hunts with draw odds of: 5%, 10%, 20%
The odds of not drawing are:
.95 x .90 x .80 = .684 = 68.4%
So your odds of drawing one are 31.6% and not the 35% chance you'd get if'n you just added em up.
Or I could be totally wrong but it seems legit to me...

Close...
31.6% is the chance that you will draw at least one tag. This includes the cases where more than one are drawn. To find the odds of drawing exactly one, you would need to add the probabilities of drawing each specific tag but none of the others. In practicality, Just the chance of getting at least one is what most people really want to know.
 

Steelhead

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Oh boy. Yessir i reckon you're right.
Each "draw season" includes a lot of hope and prayers that will go along with this statistical analysis. In the end I don't believe many of us bank on odds of any sort but we might try and play em to a degree. Also I reckon we'll cross the old "Whoops I drew too many awesome tags!!" bridge when we come to it. Personally I don't believe that bridge even eists:D:D
 

Gr8bawana

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On Nevada's Dept of Wildlife you can see the odds for each hunt. It can give you a good look at your drawing odds.
Non res bull elk range from 5 to 1 all the way to 87 to 1. That is for the any legal weapon hunt.
 

BuzzH

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Oh boy. Yessir i reckon you're right.
Each "draw season" includes a lot of hope and prayers that will go along with this statistical analysis. In the end I don't believe many of us bank on odds of any sort but we might try and play em to a degree. Also I reckon we'll cross the old "Whoops I drew too many awesome tags!!" bridge when we come to it. Personally I don't believe that bridge even eists:D:D

Happened to me one time, drew conflicting tags in AZ, a great bull permit and desert sheep.
 

LopeHunter

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I put in for over 70 tags. Most years I am trying to draw about 40 of those while the rest are point saver or I put in for worst odds tag trying not to draw that species in that state that year. I know the odds for each of those 40 as of the prior year unless is a new tag offering for that species.

Most of the 40 I try to draw have odds from 1 in 20 to 1 in 300 range. I tend to look for low tag numbers, public land and recent harvest rates over 60%. I have drawn 3 of those 40 tags in a year and drew none one year. Most years I have drawn or 2 very nice tags. About every 3rd year I get a true "dream tag" that approaches or exceeds 1 in 100 odds. I have been very lucky.

Cumulative odds not only matter but help me usually get a nice tag each year but not too many tags. I could always bump the 40 draws up to 50 or 60 or all 70 if odds get worse as various state put the screws to NR applicants as NM did recently.
 

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