NM Elk Draw Confusion...

[Jwill]

So I'm a NR, no outfitter, looking through the drawing stats, thinking about applying to NM for the first time. I'm having trouble figuring out how this works.

For instance hunt #ELK-3-276, Muzzleloader hunt in unit 17, Oct 19-23:
Huntin fool claims the draw success is 43%, this is 6 available tags, divided by 14 first choice applicants. However of those 14 first choice applicants only 1 actually drew for a success rate of 7.1%, of the 71 second choice applicants 1 drew for a success rate of 1.4%, and of 96 third choice applicants 4 drew for a success rate of 4.2%. Why wouldn't the first choice applicants draw all 6 tags, could somebody please straighten me out here? :W:

 

[jabber]

All three choices are reviewed when it is your turn, before moving on to the next guy in line. So you could draw your third choice before anyone with a first choice is drawn if your number is low enough.

 

[pointingdogsrule]

All three choices are reviewed when it is your turn, before moving on to the next guy in line. So you could draw your third choice before anyone with a first choice is drawn if your number is low enough.

Jabber: Thanks for clearing up that point. Clear as MUD right.

good luck to all
the dog

 

[npaden]

When looking at NM drawing odds, I compare the available tags to the number of folks applying for all 3 choices. 6 tags divided by 181 applicants = 3.3% drawing odds. It's not perfect, but it gets you in the ballpark.

YOUR odds are based on when YOU are drawn out of the hat. At that time they look at your first choice, if it is taken then go to the second choice, if it is taken then they go to your third choice. That's why it is always important to put your choices in the right pecking order and try to get that third choice something you might have a chance for although that has gotten very hard with the 6% allocation to DIY NR now.

Hunting Fool may be showing the odds for the guided pool or something, but they are way off on the DIY NR odds no matter how you look at them.

 

[Jwill]

Thanks, that definitely helps! HF is just way off, basically they're using Colorado math for New Mexico. Next question if you apply as a group does everyone get their name in the hat or just one?

 

[WapitiBob]

just the party leader

 

[Topgun 30-06]

When looking at NM drawing odds, I compare the available tags to the number of folks applying for all 3 choices. 6 tags divided by 181 applicants = 3.3% drawing odds. It's not perfect, but it gets you in the ballpark.

YOUR odds are based on when YOU are drawn out of the hat. At that time they look at your first choice, if it is taken then go to the second choice, if it is taken then they go to your third choice. That's why it is always important to put your choices in the right pecking order and try to get that third choice something you might have a chance for although that has gotten very hard with the 6% allocation to DIY NR now.

Hunting Fool may be showing the odds for the guided pool or something, but they are way off on the DIY NR odds no matter how you look at them.

***Yep, that's the calculation to make the way NM goes by the number you draw, rather than by filling each unit by everyone's first choice like Wyoming does before moving on to the second and then the third choice. I wonder how in the heck HF came up with 43% even using the new math, LOL!

 

[DIY HUNTER]

Yeah HF and Eastmans are both wrong. It would actually be some complex math formula, but I use the same strategy as npaden, which is worst case scenario but heck I never draw there. Those publications are simply looking at # tags divided by the # of hunters that put it as their 1st choice, which is inaccurate because NM actually looks at all three choices before they go to the next applicant. I guess someone has to draw those tags

 

[L. I. Yankee]

Yeah HF and Eastmans are both wrong. It would actually be some complex math formula, but I use the same strategy as npaden, which is worst case scenario but heck I never draw there. Those publications are simply looking at # tags divided by the # of hunters that put it as their 1st choice, which is inaccurate because NM actually looks at all three choices before they go to the next applicant. I guess someone has to draw those tags

To bad it has never been me.....

 

[SDBugler]

HF qualifies thier stats by stating that they are based on first choice applicants and that it is intended simply to show the demand for one unit over another.

I always use both the first choice demand and the total of all three demand when decinding my three unit choices.

 

[HighDesertSage]

Hunting fool is WAAAAYYY off on their estimate. That is a very popular unit. Can I ask what drew you 17? I used to live in NM and could point some much better units that are easier to draw.

 

[Jwill]

Hunting fool is WAAAAYYY off on their estimate. That is a very popular unit. Can I ask what drew you 17? I used to live in NM and could point some much better units that are easier to draw.

I didn't apply for 17, just used that as an example because HF specifically listed that hunt as an opportunity hunt with great drawing odds.

 

[dan.kirkpatrick]

now that new mexico went to only a 6% nr diy draw,I decided it wasnt worth the $,,,im bailing on n m although Id love to get after some of those big elk,other states are gonna get my non-res moneys.