Gotcha ya we are on the same page. Basically just a matter of how a guy looks at it I guess. Come to the same conclusion in the end ha
New Mexico Party App?
- Thread starter JoltnJoe
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Gotcha ya we are on the same page. Basically just a matter of how a guy looks at it I guess. Come to the same conclusion in the end ha
AggieOutlaw
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I guess that is one way to think about it...but I personally find this way of thinking a little bit confusing. Not saying technically wrong, but it might be. And not to get all Bayesian on us here, but these are the priors and not the true probability.
Probability theory get's quite counterintuitive after all...and the whole draw system is also very a Game Theoretical prospect. Especially for units with few tags. Changes in weather or just luck may cause drastic swings in the success from year to year, causing delayed reactions by applicants in the subsequent years. Some larger units have stable statistics and predictable odds...others are more dynamic. And people are emotionally attached to certain units. All these things drive irrational and unpredictable behavior.
The draw is analogy to a line for Black Friday sales. All that matters is your place in line (random) and the number of people in front of you that came for the same thing you did. It's impossible to predict the former, and difficult to predict the latter. If you happen to be lucky and be first in line, go straight for the good deal on the big ticket item rather than the good deal on extension cords. (One year my wife waited in line for hours for a pre-lit Christmas tree that apparently no one wanted...she could have gone in and bought one at noon). If you're at the back of the line, but behind a bunch of irrational pre-lit tree shoppers, you might still get that iPad.
TopRut demonstrated that many (if not most) applicants do not apply "rationally" (their order is messed up). If the percentages are as high as they suggest, it is conceivable that you could draw a better unit than would otherwise be expected thanks to foolish applicants. It's not so simple as looking at the total number of applicants in each unit to determine your odds. You can really only get a good feel for your first choice chances based on the number of available tags and trends of first choice applicants. Those who apply for your top choice unit as their 2-3 choice, may have done so irrationally by choosing a less competitive first choice and effectively removed themselves from the unit's pool of applicants. They may be ahead of you in line but went straight for the tree.
And then there is Game Theory...you throw in things like the NM Premium Statewide Tag...and that changes things. 1100+ people applied for ELK-1-700 last year (the first year offered). Interestingly, 226 applied for it as their THIRD choice...there's ONE TAG. Entirely irrational! Anyway, it's conceivable that one of those silly fools put it as their 2 or 3 choice and still could draw it! The foolish hunter may have been 100th in line but if he put other high demand units ahead and they sold out because the 99 rational applicants ahead of him chose those hunts rather than "wasting" an application on the Premium Statewide. This isn't how it worked out in 2018...but who's to say it couldn't happen in the future?
Now, maybe some people are like me and say "1100 people for one tag? that's a waste of a choice!" As a result, maybe less people apply this year. Or, maybe people think "only 1100 applied? and a lot of dummies applied as a 3rd choice? maybe I should apply for my first choice" And as a result, MORE people apply for the one tag. I have NO ability to predict this behavior. Yet, it has the potential to improve the odds of drawing in a trickle down fashion if many people apply for a single tag using one of their three choices.
If EVERY applicant (besides you) behaved rationally, it would be safer to assume the chance of drawing a second choice Unit X Archery is 0%...but we know that's not the case. And even if it were the case, as illustrated by the Premium Statewide hypothetical, you could still have a chance at drawing the Unit X Archery tag on second choice if everyone in front of you chose Unit Y muzzleloader...however unlikely that is. But of course that is the question...is it impossible (i.e. 0%)?
So it's hard to predict how these things could turn out. But, it's safe to say that you cannot get any better odds than your worst draw odds. So, in that sense, I agree with BlueRidge...in another sense, it's hard to say exactly what that worst probability is...we must just use the priors (historical data) to inform our choices.
So I just follow some simple rules:
0) Only apply for hunts you would be happy to draw
1) Apply in order of lowest to greatest historical draw probability (highest to lowest value);
2) if that order doesn't align with your subjective desire (value) for the hunt, pick different hunts...seriously; and
3) if you really want to hunt, don't be picky on your third (worst) choice. (put the prelit tree on the shopping list)
4) Don't party app in units with few tags
Okay, now I'm just rambling...tis the season! Tags on the brain!
Probability theory get's quite counterintuitive after all...and the whole draw system is also very a Game Theoretical prospect. Especially for units with few tags. Changes in weather or just luck may cause drastic swings in the success from year to year, causing delayed reactions by applicants in the subsequent years. Some larger units have stable statistics and predictable odds...others are more dynamic. And people are emotionally attached to certain units. All these things drive irrational and unpredictable behavior.
The draw is analogy to a line for Black Friday sales. All that matters is your place in line (random) and the number of people in front of you that came for the same thing you did. It's impossible to predict the former, and difficult to predict the latter. If you happen to be lucky and be first in line, go straight for the good deal on the big ticket item rather than the good deal on extension cords. (One year my wife waited in line for hours for a pre-lit Christmas tree that apparently no one wanted...she could have gone in and bought one at noon). If you're at the back of the line, but behind a bunch of irrational pre-lit tree shoppers, you might still get that iPad.
TopRut demonstrated that many (if not most) applicants do not apply "rationally" (their order is messed up). If the percentages are as high as they suggest, it is conceivable that you could draw a better unit than would otherwise be expected thanks to foolish applicants. It's not so simple as looking at the total number of applicants in each unit to determine your odds. You can really only get a good feel for your first choice chances based on the number of available tags and trends of first choice applicants. Those who apply for your top choice unit as their 2-3 choice, may have done so irrationally by choosing a less competitive first choice and effectively removed themselves from the unit's pool of applicants. They may be ahead of you in line but went straight for the tree.
And then there is Game Theory...you throw in things like the NM Premium Statewide Tag...and that changes things. 1100+ people applied for ELK-1-700 last year (the first year offered). Interestingly, 226 applied for it as their THIRD choice...there's ONE TAG. Entirely irrational! Anyway, it's conceivable that one of those silly fools put it as their 2 or 3 choice and still could draw it! The foolish hunter may have been 100th in line but if he put other high demand units ahead and they sold out because the 99 rational applicants ahead of him chose those hunts rather than "wasting" an application on the Premium Statewide. This isn't how it worked out in 2018...but who's to say it couldn't happen in the future?
Now, maybe some people are like me and say "1100 people for one tag? that's a waste of a choice!" As a result, maybe less people apply this year. Or, maybe people think "only 1100 applied? and a lot of dummies applied as a 3rd choice? maybe I should apply for my first choice" And as a result, MORE people apply for the one tag. I have NO ability to predict this behavior. Yet, it has the potential to improve the odds of drawing in a trickle down fashion if many people apply for a single tag using one of their three choices.
If EVERY applicant (besides you) behaved rationally, it would be safer to assume the chance of drawing a second choice Unit X Archery is 0%...but we know that's not the case. And even if it were the case, as illustrated by the Premium Statewide hypothetical, you could still have a chance at drawing the Unit X Archery tag on second choice if everyone in front of you chose Unit Y muzzleloader...however unlikely that is. But of course that is the question...is it impossible (i.e. 0%)?
So it's hard to predict how these things could turn out. But, it's safe to say that you cannot get any better odds than your worst draw odds. So, in that sense, I agree with BlueRidge...in another sense, it's hard to say exactly what that worst probability is...we must just use the priors (historical data) to inform our choices.
So I just follow some simple rules:
0) Only apply for hunts you would be happy to draw
1) Apply in order of lowest to greatest historical draw probability (highest to lowest value);
2) if that order doesn't align with your subjective desire (value) for the hunt, pick different hunts...seriously; and
3) if you really want to hunt, don't be picky on your third (worst) choice. (put the prelit tree on the shopping list)
4) Don't party app in units with few tags
Okay, now I'm just rambling...tis the season! Tags on the brain!
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Agreed...all depends on the people drawn before you. If a bunch of incorrectly ordered apps get drawn in front of you, you could technically draw the 7% unit on your 2nd choice even if you have the 15% unit as your 1st choice.
AggieOutlaw
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Yeah, it's statistically unlikely, and depending on a variety of factors it could be impossible. But it's such a difficult problem to model without the complete data set, I gave up. It would be an absolutely fascinating Masters Thesis.
Link to a pretty cool site on Oregon draw odds, looks like he created an algorithm to predict future draw application behavior and trends. Aggie maybe you should work on NM?
Fatrack
Well-known member
For all of you guys way smarter than me...if a unit has 10 tags, will there be a tag in the non-res draw? Will there be a tag in the Guide Draw?
blueridge
Well-known member
I'm not smarter, but I will jump in with yes and yes. 1 tag in each. They will round up to 1 for the NR (6%), and the Outfitter will have 1 (10%). To doublecheck, I looked through the current NM regs and found a few units with exactly 10 tags and checked both the previous years stats and the current odds on the draw odds website I use. All concur with 1 and 1.
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ImBillT
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Apparently this is incorrect. There will be 9 res tags, and 1 outfitter tag and 0 non-res tags. If no outfitters apply, then that tag turns into a non-res tag. There are some tags that have 0 outfitters some years, and multiple outfitters other years. If a single outfitter applies for a hunt with 10 tags, there will be no non-res tags issued.
Hunts with plenty of tags have semi-stable draw odds, but the fewer the tags, the more they fluctuate. I applied for a tag no one applied for the previous year and seven people applied for it the year I did! A similar thing happened on a deer tag I was looking at. A single non-res applied for three non-res tags the previous year, and eleven people applied for those tags the year that I did.
With the non-refundable license in NM this year, there will probably be fewer total applicants and the number of applicants on the really difficult to draw hunts will probably drop as well, but people will most likely be putting a lot of easier to draw hunts on their third choice than in the past. We I’ll probably see better odds on the 1-15% and absolutely terrible odds on the hunts that were easier to draw.
No that is INCORRECT.
Tags NEVER transfer or “rollover”. Its state law to “over allocate” tags from the designated quote. That is straight from Chad Nelson at Game and Fish.
cahunter805
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TJD is correct if there are 10 tags.
If there are 5 tags it’s rounded up to 6 and the outfitters pool gets 1 meaning a resident or non resident could draw that tag if they are in the pool.
If there are 5 tags it’s rounded up to 6 and the outfitters pool gets 1 meaning a resident or non resident could draw that tag if they are in the pool.
AggieOutlaw
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I've tried modeling and simulating the draw but without more data it's pretty much impossible. You have to make too many assumptions since choice order matters and a hunter's choices aren't random or independent. I'm curious how TopRut got their data. I recently joined their membership for the NM draw odds calculator and I get vastly different (always lower) draw odds based on my models. They obviously have more information if they know how many people had irrational application orders. I'm hoping their model is more accurate.
If I could get the entire data set, I would have fun playing with a model.
blueridge
Well-known member
Does anyone have subscriptions to both Toprut and GoHunt? I currently use Toprut and am curious how similar their algorithms and odds are. Is there much of a variance?
I'd like to be able to compare my top app scenarios in both, just not curious enough to pay the additional money for the other.
I'd like to be able to compare my top app scenarios in both, just not curious enough to pay the additional money for the other.
Addicting
Well-known member
All these numbers....the only number that really matters is the GOHunt subscription amount. They do all of the work for you and more. You all should check it out, think of the money you will save on Excedrin for your headaches. I even hear they will give you 50 bucks and Randy’s way points if you use the promo code Randy.
WapitiBob
Well-known member
Aggie, Toprut and Gohunt buy the database for several states. As such, they know the app choices and order.
Blue, I have had both and they were usually within a point or so of each other. The difference between the two is not their odds but over all content.
Blue, I have had both and they were usually within a point or so of each other. The difference between the two is not their odds but over all content.
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ImBillT
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I have only looked at a handful of hunts, but GoHunt odds for NM were pretty close to what I came up with myself. All I did was take total NR tags/total NR apps(accross ALL hunts of that season/weapon/species) as the probability that a second or third choice hunter in front of me would have drawn a tag other than the one I was applying for and thus be taken out of the pool I’m competing with in-spite of applying for the same hunt. You’ll notice that the result is better than the number of tags/numbers of 1st/2nd/3rd choice because some of those 2nd and 3rd choice hunters were removed from the pool, but it’s not a ton. In reality if your third choice is hard to draw, you’re less likely to benefit by people drawing a higher choice hunt than if your third choice is easy to draw, but I don’t think it’s by a lot. It would actually take a pretty high percentage of irrational applications to make significant difference.
I’m not convinced that GoHunt or TopRut have any information from NM that we can’t get on our own.
I’m not convinced that GoHunt or TopRut have any information from NM that we can’t get on our own.
AggieOutlaw
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According to Top Rut, a huge percentage (48+%) is irrational. Meaning, 48% of applicants had ZERO chance of drawing 2nd or 3rd choice. That really can mess up your calculations!
ImBillT
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48% would have a major impact. There were some folks that had my third choice as their first last season, and my third choice was one I wasn’t sure I actually even wanted. Perhaps they were irrational.
On a side note, I think AZ probably has more irrational apps than NM due to the bonus pass. If you have enough points to draw your second choice in the bonus pass, you never get a shot in the random for your first choice even though you knew you could draw it in the bonus pass.
On a side note, I think AZ probably has more irrational apps than NM due to the bonus pass. If you have enough points to draw your second choice in the bonus pass, you never get a shot in the random for your first choice even though you knew you could draw it in the bonus pass.
AdrianLewis
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