Moving Trends for 2025

[SAJ-99]

What are you saying? the info is biased/false? I'm trying to understand how that would be possible and the only thing i could think of was capital gains not being taxed but on second thought it might be local sales taxes that hit lower incomes harder? Is property tax a "local" tax?

Try this. Click on the state and it shows how the numbers are put together. Short answer is it's complicated. It's kind of "Effective tax rate" but they have to make a lot of assumptions to compare states.

Who Pays? State-by-State Data

ITEP Tax Inequality Index Click on your state for details. [show-map mapID=whopays6 mapDataStart=2 spreadsheet=1QQyxgYSqfuDGoOQom26DDEXRbvNAMlA4rV_OH__BooY type=whopays2024 width=100%] Forty-four states’ tax systems…

itep.org

 

[BigHornRam]

What are you saying? the info is biased/false? I'm trying to understand how that would be possible and the only thing i could think of was capital gains not being taxed but on second thought it might be local sales taxes that hit lower incomes harder? Is property tax a "local" tax?

I think they include sales tax, but it is hard to
say how they come up with their calculations. A fair percent of the population pays no tax at all, so I'm not buying what they are selling.

 

[Laszlo Cravensworth]

A fair percent of the population pays no tax at all, so I'm not buying what they are selling.

They pay no income or property tax perhaps, but as a percentage of their income they pay a ton of sales tax and junk tax through fees.

 

[Elkmagnet]

Trying to extrapolate and understand this.. Because in progressive state tax rate states the more ordinary income you make the higher tax rate you pay. Is it primarily capital gains not being subject to state/local tax or at lower rates that makes everything so red?

I honestly dont know but it does look like a complicated accounting. That does leave room for bias outcomes.

 

[BigHornRam]

They pay no income or property tax perhaps, but as a percentage of their income they pay a ton of sales tax and junk tax through fees.

Junk tax doesn't sound like a good idea. Is it based on how many inches you have?

 

[Elkmagnet]

What are you saying? the info is biased/false? I'm trying to understand how that would be possible and the only thing i could think of was capital gains not being taxed but on second thought it might be local sales taxes that hit lower incomes harder? Is property tax a "local" tax?

I think he may be pointing out wiki has ITEP described as "liberal".
That claim is based on two cited articles over 22 years time.
Fortunately most people are getting over the "fake news" of everything they don't agree with. People are starting to trust their eyes more than their ears and do some research like you are doing. Good on you for asking deeper questions.

 

[Wind Gypsy]

Try this. Click on the state and it shows how the numbers are put together. Short answer is it's complicated. It's kind of "Effective tax rate" but they have to make a lot of assumptions to compare states.

Who Pays? State-by-State Data

ITEP Tax Inequality Index Click on your state for details. [show-map mapID=whopays6 mapDataStart=2 spreadsheet=1QQyxgYSqfuDGoOQom26DDEXRbvNAMlA4rV_OH__BooY type=whopays2024 width=100%] Forty-four states’ tax systems…

itep.org

Thanks, that's helpful. Looks like I live in the "most equitable" state because property taxes dont vary much as a % of income across the groups and the bottom 20% gets paid by the state rather than paying in state taxes.. Kind of wild to think of sales/excise taxes as 6% of income with a 6.875% state sales tax. Spending every $ made + booze, cigs, and gas at higher rates probably makes it so?



Edit again: holy crap, looking at some of these other states.. A guy is leaving some serious $ on the table with a decent income in these "equitable" states.

 

[SAJ-99]

Thanks, that's helpful. Looks like I live in the "most equitable" state because property taxes dont vary much as a % of income across the groups and the bottom 20% gets paid by the state rather than paying in state taxes.. Kind of wild to think of sales/excise taxes as 6% of income with a 6.875% state sales tax. Spending every $ made + booze, cigs, and gas at higher rates probably makes it so?

View attachment 403789

Edit again: holy crap, looking at some of these other states.. A guy is leaving some serious $ on the table with a decent income in these "equitable" states.

It’s all smoke and mirrors. How real estate is taxed is different by state. Some tax at fair value some at some discount. Then there might be local sales taxes. It is difficult to make a comparison of two states or cities. Some states, like Florida or Texas, sell some low tax fluff, but in many cases they have the same budget problems as other states. I enjoy watching how average Americans perceive how they are winning or losing out of the whole system in their area. Some of the points are valid and some might not be. I guess people can always move.

 

[BigHornRam]

Wyoming doesn't appreciate Jackson Holes contribution to the state.

Teton ‘wealthiest’ in U.S. again, prompting message to Wyoming - WyoFile https://share.google/MUMEhagNrexl775CD

 

[Forkyfinder]

It’s all smoke and mirrors. How real estate is taxed is different by state. Some tax at fair value some at some discount. Then there might be local sales taxes. It is difficult to make a comparison of two states or cities. Some states, like Florida or Texas, sell some low tax fluff, but in many cases they have the same budget problems as other states. I enjoy watching how average Americans perceive how they are winning or losing out of the whole system in their area. Some of the points are valid and some might not be. I guess people can always move.

Wonder how it takes ag prop tax into account?

Someone owning 20k acres in ag is certainly 1% but would pay way less in prop tax as a percentage of income than the average family.

 

[elkduds]

We could go back further.

I’m laying blame on the Denver Pacific Railway.

 

[jryoung]

It’s all smoke and mirrors. How real estate is taxed is different by state. Some tax at fair value some at some discount. Then there might be local sales taxes. It is difficult to make a comparison of two states or cities. Some states, like Florida or Texas, sell some low tax fluff, but in many cases they have the same budget problems as other states. I enjoy watching how average Americans perceive how they are winning or losing out of the whole system in their area. Some of the points are valid and some might not be. I guess people can always move.

This

For the vast majority of Americans, like 99.5% the differences are often minimal once everything get accounted for. Sure if you have obscene wealth and can pick up an move the dollar may be substantial, but likely immaterial and not impacting the purchase of your next mega-yacht.

For everyone else, there are many other factors at play that go far beyond rates. Earning potential coupled with other life factors are the key drivers. In my case, I'm "stuck" in California for now because my wife and I can earn more here, get to retirement quicker, and sell our home with more equity than we could it many other places. We have to work hard, and that comes with a cost too that isn't ignored but it all penciles out for us now and has for the last 20 years. Everyone's math is different, just make sure you have all the most set of complete factors in your equation and not just the "shiney" stuff.

 

[BigHornRam]

View attachment 403791

Jake Pasquinel.

 

[Tradewind]

some advice from Brother Bob

 

[thebestusernamesaretaken]

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-americas-fastest-growing-and-fastest-shrinking-states-2020-2025/

 

[westbranch]

Big Pickle Ball is making a fortune in Florida right now.

The company that figured out how to sell a paddle made with $5 of materials for >$150 is based in North Idaho: https://www.selkirk.com/

 

[thebestusernamesaretaken]

View attachment 403795

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-americas-fastest-growing-and-fastest-shrinking-states-2020-2025/

It's interesting - this is a 5 year time span - 200k people leaving NY would hardly be noticed but 191k people moving into ID is very noticeable

 

[Bambistew]

I'm glad to see people leaving Alaska

 

[Beignet]

Do you have another source you'd recommend that would more accurately show what countries have the largest outflow of business moving abroad? Most of my opinions are based of economists and political journalists not a cherry picked article. That one synthesized the information and thoughts I shared so I shared it.

I'm more interested in the rate of business migrating than "millionaire" departures. Anyone that bought a house in suburbia NYC could be classified a millionaire if you were to consider their total assets. It would greatly dilute that stat for obvious reasons.

Do you see a correlation between middle class departures and industry departure? I guess my research has led me to that conclusion.
View attachment 403754

I guess I hope I personally never have to make that decision as my family values spending time in the outdoors and we enjoy where we live but if work dried up and I couldn’t find a job for my skill set I’d probably move if it came down to it. I'm pretty sure the data suggests jobs/industry are the number 1 contributor for out of state moves.

Man, between work, hobbies, and getting QT in with my kid I don't think I can budget the time to get into a citation showdown on the subject. And I'm honestly sorry that I even posted any links. It's not something I usually do here and have always thought that throwing out random articles like "Gotcha!" to prove my point was lame, and will be viewed as biased before even being read. But I will say that having academic familiarity with the subject, economics is an inexact science. For any academic journal article someone has published with a theory they'll be another well researched and equally convincing article refuting it. No one gets to know who was correct until after the fact. That can really be said about any of the social sciences.

All that said, I believe that migration inflows and outflows are more nuanced than being able to pin something on a specific policy or person. Anyone concerned about the taxes in New York today hasn't been paying attention for the last 50 years. Anyone concerned about "socialism" in Europe also hasn't been paying attention for the last 50 years. And when I see corporations bemoan "high operating costs" I read "We have to pay people enough to live here and that's expensive. Moreover, most of this can be done from the Philippines or India anyway." If they are all so truly concerned they'd better get moving. There are only so many Dallas-es and Dubai's out there and they need to get in before all their private equity buddies snatch up the real estate and let it sit vacant so they can worm out a whatever tax write off that state made for them.

 

[PoleX]

Man, between work, hobbies, and getting QT in with my kid I don't think I can budget the time to get into a citation showdown on the subject. And I'm honestly sorry that I even posted any links. It's not something I usually do here and have always thought that throwing out random articles like "Gotcha!" to prove my point was lame, and will be viewed as biased before even being read. But I will say that having academic familiarity with the subject, economics is an inexact science. For any academic journal article someone has published with a theory they'll be another well researched and equally convincing article refuting it. No one gets to know who was correct until after the fact. That can really be said about any of the social sciences.

All that said, I believe that migration inflows and outflows are more nuanced than being able to pin something on a specific policy or person. Anyone concerned about the taxes in New York today hasn't been paying attention for the last 50 years. Anyone concerned about "socialism" in Europe also hasn't been paying attention for the last 50 years. And when I see corporations bemoan "high operating costs" I read "We have to pay people enough to live here and that's expensive. Moreover, most of this can be done from the Philippines or India anyway." If they are all so truly concerned they'd better get moving. There are only so many Dallas-es and Dubai's out there and they need to get in before all their private equity buddies snatch up the real estate and let it sit vacant so they can worm out a whatever tax write off that state made for them.

Socities certainly go though ebbs and flows. The pendulum usually swings back towards center. Bottom line is I hope the major cities find their stride again in hopes it will alleviates some of the pressures elsewhere. I certainly understand your comment on studying economics and it sounds like you’ve developed your own set of opinions from a base knowledge of reading and trying to understand many perspectives much like myself. We can agree to disagree on some points.