Missouri Breaks 798-20 Non Resident confusion

[Addicting]

I am doing Montana research and looked at the 2015 draw odds thru the hunt planner. With trying to understand Big Fins post and videos there is always a chance on the last % of those 250 tags. The Non Resident tags and points don't really make sense to me. I took a screen shot of the odds and hoped someone can explain why it appears that points really didn't matter. If 12 points didn't draw but 11 did and 4 PP was the highest % of draw success, I am missing something. Wish I could afford the Insider but that is not in the cards right now if I am going to put money out for this tag or 798-21 which is a lot better odds but is archery.

Thanks for the help, my brain hurts. Whoever says this is half the fun, lied....

 

[Big Fin]

First thing to understand, is that Montana is a bonus point system, not a preference point system. Each point is just another "raffle ticket," not a guarantee.

Drawings are random, not predictable, with outliers to all supposed probabilities. What you are seeing are outliers. The dudes with 12 points drew some bad random numbers, such that all their random numbers were too high to be in the low enough for a tag. The dudes in the 4 point pool were lucky in that they got some low random numbers and they drew tags when some with 12, 10, 9, 8, did not. Just how it goes in a bonus point draw.

 

[Fire_9]

How I understand it is your points are squared meaning you name goes in the hat 144 times if you have 12 points, 121 if you have 11, and so on. So points in theory help you but it doesn't mean you're getting a for sure draw with the max number of points. It's still luck of the draw. You don't have as good of a chance with 1 point but you still have a chance...

 

[Flatrock]

How I understand it is your points are squared meaning you name goes in the hat 144 times if you have 12 points, 121 if you have 11, and so on. So points in theory help you but it doesn't mean you're getting a for sure draw with the max number of points. It's still luck of the draw. You don't have as good of a chance with 1 point but you still have a chance...

Yep pretty much. Just like if you buy raffle tickets for something. The more you buy, the better your chances but the guy with 1 ticket might be the lucky one who draws.

 

[Addicting]

Thanks for the replies, that makes sense.

Can you poke holes in this or give advice.

Partner only wants to hunt deer and grouse. I want to elk and equal opportunity grouse hunt. Apply for 798-20 take my chance he can hunt the same area off from his general deer, mule or whitetail. If I don't draw I can hunt HD701 on the general tag spike or cow but have to deal with land access an a lot of hunters from what I read.

I have hunted in the National Grasslands in Wyoming and the clay was the same problems when it rained so I am familiar with how messy it gets. I have read a lot of articles where the bugs and skeeters are bad mixed with clay which makes a might as well stay home day. Has the weather broke enough to kill most of those off during the rifle so we only have the clay to deal with?

Or because we want to kill some grouse as well as part of our 2 week trip, are we better at ditching the "Breaks" and large groups of hunters and look more towards backpacking it in region 3 towards the NE of 393 on just our general tags?

Or for the Grouse afflicted people on here do you have a suggestion? Not looking for X marks the spot, just advice trying to make this a 2 week trifecta to make the most of our time.

 

[Schaaf]

No elk in 798, better off trying for 410 or 622 if you're wanting to hunt the breaks.

 

[Poke 'Em]

How I understand it is your points are squared meaning you name goes in the hat 144 times if you have 12 points, 121 if you have 11, and so on. So points in theory help you but it doesn't mean you're getting a for sure draw with the max number of points. It's still luck of the draw. You don't have as good of a chance with 1 point but you still have a chance...

Technically, with 12 points your name goes in the hat 145 times (144 for your bonus points, plus 1 for that year's entry), but you get the general idea.

 

[Addicting]

I looked at all the 2015 for these areas, in 410 was 1 successful draw for 10 NR tags Either sex rifle tags. The same scenario for 622, looks like if you want to bow hunt or cow hunt it there are little better odds with a lot more tag allocations. The old adage goes if you don't play you cant win, but I think I need to start looking at where the general tags will get us the best opportunity in other regions to shoot a rifle bull.

Thanks for all of your help.