Mid Term Election - Zinke vs D TBD

[MTGomer]

The race for Montana's 1st congressional district will presumably be Ryan Zinke (R) vs. one of at least 4 democrats that have thrown their names in the hat thus far.

These dems are (take the info somewhat as a grain of salt. I found most of it online and didn't put a ton of effort into verifying. Mainly ballotpedia)
-Russ Cleveland
A MT native, Navy Vet, day care owner and school teacher in St. Regis

-Sam Forstad
transplant. UM Grad, union leader, smokejumper, endorsed by Bernie Sanders.

-Matt Rains
4th gen Montanan, cattle rancher, Army vet. Opened a rancher owned meat packing plant
Previously lost a primary in HD22 for state rep

-Ryan Busse
transplant. former firearms exec turned gun control activist, author.
Previously lost a race for governor against Greg Gianforte by ~20 points in 2024

Republican - Zinke

Former Navy Seal. Lives in Whitefish.
Seems to stick to Trump admin positions for the most part, but was nearly the lone voice of reason on the R side in 2025 when his party proposed disposing of western public lands.


For those in the know... Who is the better choice on the D side? As in, not only who has a better shot at winning, but who has the best policies?

 

[Beignet]

Based on the résumés you listed above I sort of biased my preference toward Rains already. I appreciate cutting out the big industry players for access to locally grown beef. Was glad to see that his campaign site primarily focuses on issues that actually matter to folks in Montana. As opposed to subscribing to the national-level cultural touchstone BS.

I guess it makes sense that the mailers I often receive from Zinke (in my very blue part of the state) seem to have honed in solely on those exact same issues.

Either way, it’d be great if voters would make a decision to elect representatives that will deliver on issues that matter locally, and don’t try to distract their constituents with red-herring culture war crap.

 

[SAJ-99]

Previously lost a primary in HD22 for state rep

There was a primary for a house district? I can't image who he lost to. Obvious question is did the party support him?

 

[MTGomer]

There was a primary for a house district? I can't image who he lost to. Obvious question is did the party support him?

According to ballotpedia it was to Jasmine Taylor in 2020

Matt Rains

Ballotpedia: The Encyclopedia of American Politics

ballotpedia.org

 

[SAJ-99]

According to ballotpedia it was to Jasmine Taylor in 2020

Matt Rains

Ballotpedia: The Encyclopedia of American Politics

ballotpedia.org

Rains didn't complete the survey that year (or this one). Taylor did, and from the answers you can get an indication of the uphill climb she was making. Candidates don't complete those surveys either because they don't need to because they are so well known, like Zinke, or because they don't care. Unfortunately often people run for office with no intention of winning. They just like seeing their name on the ballot. Cleveland filled out the survey for 2026, so you can get more info on him.

This is a tough race to run as a democrat for any of those people. They are not going to get much money from the party and the incumbent has positive name recognition. Zinke didn't get penalized for all the red flags he has as Interior Sec so it would take something pretty significant to knock his reputation with voters.

 

[Nameless Range]

Just perusing their websites, there's a minimal amount of info on their policies. I do like Matt Rains' focus on rural Montana on his website. The rest of the rest are the pretty typical talking points.

Zinke beat Tranel 53-44, in 2024. I think that Busse, though a nice guy, is just a reflection of national D politics. Forstag has some real life bonafides and the look, but Western MT is not particularly influenced by Unions or Uncle Bernie. Cleveland also has the national D talking points that most Western Montanans are not moved by.

If I was a D picking my best shot, at first blush I'd be leaning toward Rains - rancher, business owner, vet. That said, despite the fact that I think all of our Republican Reps/Senators have debased themselves in a gross fealty to Big Government via Trump, most Montanans who identify as an R don't share my viewpoint, and Zinke did step up in one of the moments that mattered, and if I were a betting man I'd say Zinke wins by as large of if not a larger margin.

 

[SAJ-99]

Rains could stick an I next to his name and hit Zinke on Trump lifting tariffs for Argentine beef. Zinke is for tariffs but apparently against Montana ranchers making a living, at least not for it enough to do anything about it. But then again, opposition could hit any Republican congressperson for doing nothing. It just takes money to distribute a message.

 

[MTGomer]

Just based on surface level information, my preference too, would be Rains.
Cleveland seems decent.


Forstad is probably a cool dude but union involvement and his Sanders endorsement is not a winner in MT.

Zinke, like him or not, is way better than Gianforte to most people on the right and left. I think most would agree with that.

If Busse can’t even get close to beating Gianforte, how could he beat Zinke? Policies aside, he has the downside of being well known and strongly disliked by many people that know him and otherwise would be his ally on the public lands/hunting topics. People that agree with his positions but find his personality toxic.

There’s a lot of people like me that are looking for a reason to vote against Zinke but will vote for him if hes against a worse option

 

[MTGomer]

Rains could stick an I next to his name and hit Zinke on Trump lifting tariffs for Argentine beef. Zinke is for tariffs but apparently against Montana ranchers making a living, at least not for it enough to do anything about it. But then again, opposition could hit any Republican congressperson for doing nothing. It just takes money to distribute a message.

Come on now. Venezuelan oil and Argentine beef are America First.

 

[SixPoint]

The Cleveland’s were one of our neighbors growing up. Russ was a few years older than me but we spent time hanging out when we were kids. Haven’t talked to him in over 20 years but our parents stayed in touch until they moved a few years ago. His family are as good of people as they come. Very humble, very active in a small local community. Always the first to lend a hand, and are very generous with their limited means. I can’t speak to his politics but as far as someone who grew up in rural MT and cares about our state with similar experiences, he’s worth listening to and considering. I think Zinke is going to be pretty tough to unseat, especially given his heavy lift with protecting public lands recently, but Russ may be a candidate to remember in future elections if he stays in the game.