SAJ-99
Well-known member
It feels like Bessent is driving the bus now. He is widely regarded as the smartest guy in the administration, and the market likes him, so that is the positive. The US treasury has been treading water for months and the increase in the debt ceiling will give him some flexibility. Still, I'm not sure what he can do and the damage may be done. We have the highest interest rates in developed world and the dollar continues to fall (It's not supposed to work that way). Between threatening tariffs every couple of weeks and letting Stephen Miller do everything he can to push foreign students out of US, we seem to have made the rest of the world start looking seriously at alternatives for multitude of things. It starting to look more and more like we created our own "Brexit" situation.This was a prescient post.
Lots of info out there suggested many Republican legislators told Trump passing his bill would lead to their losing control of at least one and possibly both houses of Congress.
Trump didn't care of course.
Also Vance and others said right after it's passage that there would likely be changes to the bill within a few years. If it's really so beautiful and perfect you wouldn't think they would say that. Perhaps Vance sees a path for becoming President before Trump's 4 years are up?
The impacts are out there but many Trumpers are drunk on the Kool aid to accept them. Not just the huge increase in the deficit. Social security impacts. Rural hospitals closings, health care cost increases, seniors misled on the bill claiming it ends taxes on Social security by communications from the SSA (when it does nothing of the sort).
Talked to a small town hospitals board member yesterday...extremely worried. Medicaid cuts...their estimate is that it will cost them into the 7 figures, but that's just on lack of coverage estimates. Doesn't account for all the people who won't go to a doctor because they no longer have insurance until it's an emergency where the cost of care gets MUCH more expensive.
In the meantime, most measures of the health of the underlying economy are good. The US dollar a huge and worrisome exception.
How long will things go before it hits the fan?
I continue to be glad that as we approach the withdrawal years we can accept the returns of a much more conservative portfolio...with a boost from international increases...and then hang on until some sanity is restored.
The jobs report on the 3rd was strong, but half the jobs were in government and another 25% in medicine. The private market hiring seems to have really slowed. Just one report but it does seem like we are slowing down.