Idaho MSG Applications - Who's In

[Firedude]

10th year on a 12% to 15% "RaNdOm" draw.

 

[BAKPAKR]

10th year on a 12% to 15% "RaNdOm" draw.

 

[idelkslayer]

10th year on a 12% to 15% "RaNdOm" draw.

You didn't ask for this, I'm just using your example to show how random odds work over time.

It is often easier to think that with 15% odds you should draw after 100/15 or 6.7 years. But it isn't that simple because it is random and the odds can never be 100%.

The odds of being drawn at least once over a specific time period is given by the equation 1-(1-P)^n. Where P is the probability of being drawn in each individual year and n is the number of years. In your case 1-0.85^10= 80.3%. So assuming a 15% chance each year, the odds that you will have drawn at least once in 10 years is 80.3%. In a truly random drawing it will never reach 100% but applying consistently does increase your odds over time. After 15 years the odds that you will have drawn go up to 91.2%. After 20 years it goes up to 96.1%.

The wrinkle is if the odds decline over that time period. Then you would calculate by taking 1- [(1-P)*(1-P)*(1-P)*...(1-P)] where P is the odds for each year you apply. If the odds over the 10 year period drop by 5% (0.5% per year), then your probability of being drawn once in that period would be 74.1%.

 

[brymoore]

You didn't ask for this, I'm just using your example to show how random odds work over time.

It is often easier to think that with 15% odds you should draw after 100/15 or 6.7 years. But it isn't that simple because it is random and the odds can never be 100%.

The odds of being drawn at least once over a specific time period is given by the equation 1-(1-P)^n. Where P is the probability of being drawn in each individual year and n is the number of years. In your case 1-0.85^10= 80.3%. So assuming a 15% chance each year, the odds that you will have drawn at least once in 10 years is 80.3%. In a truly random drawing it will never reach 100% but applying consistently does increase your odds over time. After 15 years the odds that you will have drawn go up to 91.2%. After 20 years it goes up to 96.1%.

The wrinkle is if the odds decline over that time period. Then you would calculate by taking 1- [(1-P)*(1-P)*(1-P)*...(1-P)] where P is the odds for each year you apply. If the odds over the 10 year period drop by 5% (0.5% per year), then your probability of being drawn once in that period would be 74.1%.

I had this exact comment with my wife about the 10% draw odd moose unit 20 years ago. I told her that theoretically she should draw in roughly 10 years. She reminds me of the conversation every year for 20 years.

 

[Lilhowie83]

My family is in for moose, moose, moose, mountain goat and active army training.

Are you guys in for our favorite unit in Southeast Idaho where @JohnCushman shot his moose?

 

[brymoore]

Are you guys in for our favorite unit in Southeast Idaho where @JohnCushman shot his moose?

Some of us.

 

[Lilhowie83]

Some of us.

This is the first year I'm trying a different unit. I'll message you some pictures that a couple of moose my friends have taken the last couple of years. In my opinion, it has become the best moose unit in the state, but I wish they would drop it back to 5 tags. I think over time the quality is going to go down with the higher tag number.

 

[Hawk Tuah]

Are we feeling today?

 

[seeth07]

Are we feeling today?

I sure hope so, need a feel good going into the weekend knowing I'll be headed back to SE Idaho to the land of wonders

 

[HONEYBADGER]

You didn't ask for this, I'm just using your example to show how random odds work over time.

It is often easier to think that with 15% odds you should draw after 100/15 or 6.7 years. But it isn't that simple because it is random and the odds can never be 100%.

The odds of being drawn at least once over a specific time period is given by the equation 1-(1-P)^n. Where P is the probability of being drawn in each individual year and n is the number of years. In your case 1-0.85^10= 80.3%. So assuming a 15% chance each year, the odds that you will have drawn at least once in 10 years is 80.3%. In a truly random drawing it will never reach 100% but applying consistently does increase your odds over time. After 15 years the odds that you will have drawn go up to 91.2%. After 20 years it goes up to 96.1%.

The wrinkle is if the odds decline over that time period. Then you would calculate by taking 1- [(1-P)*(1-P)*(1-P)*...(1-P)] where P is the odds for each year you apply. If the odds over the 10 year period drop by 5% (0.5% per year), then your probability of being drawn once in that period would be 74.1%.

Weapon

I sure hope so, need a feel good going i

Draw results all seem to be trending later this year. You would think with all this technology and AI being abundant that draws would be simple now and easy to turn around. Guess not.