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[Firedude]

10th year on a 12% to 15% "RaNdOm" draw.

 

[BAKPAKR]

10th year on a 12% to 15% "RaNdOm" draw.

 

[idelkslayer]

10th year on a 12% to 15% "RaNdOm" draw.

You didn't ask for this, I'm just using your example to show how random odds work over time.

It is often easier to think that with 15% odds you should draw after 100/15 or 6.7 years. But it isn't that simple because it is random and the odds can never be 100%.

The odds of being drawn at least once over a specific time period is given by the equation 1-(1-P)^n. Where P is the probability of being drawn in each individual year and n is the number of years. In your case 1-0.85^10= 80.3%. So assuming a 15% chance each year, the odds that you will have drawn at least once in 10 years is 80.3%. In a truly random drawing it will never reach 100% but applying consistently does increase your odds over time. After 15 years the odds that you will have drawn go up to 91.2%. After 20 years it goes up to 96.1%.

The wrinkle is if the odds decline over that time period. Then you would calculate by taking 1- [(1-P)*(1-P)*(1-P)*...(1-P)] where P is the odds for each year you apply. If the odds over the 10 year period drop by 5% (0.5% per year), then your probability of being drawn once in that period would be 74.1%.

 

[brymoore]

You didn't ask for this, I'm just using your example to show how random odds work over time.

It is often easier to think that with 15% odds you should draw after 100/15 or 6.7 years. But it isn't that simple because it is random and the odds can never be 100%.

The odds of being drawn at least once over a specific time period is given by the equation 1-(1-P)^n. Where P is the probability of being drawn in each individual year and n is the number of years. In your case 1-0.85^10= 80.3%. So assuming a 15% chance each year, the odds that you will have drawn at least once in 10 years is 80.3%. In a truly random drawing it will never reach 100% but applying consistently does increase your odds over time. After 15 years the odds that you will have drawn go up to 91.2%. After 20 years it goes up to 96.1%.

The wrinkle is if the odds decline over that time period. Then you would calculate by taking 1- [(1-P)*(1-P)*(1-P)*...(1-P)] where P is the odds for each year you apply. If the odds over the 10 year period drop by 5% (0.5% per year), then your probability of being drawn once in that period would be 74.1%.

I had this exact comment with my wife about the 10% draw odd moose unit 20 years ago. I told her that theoretically she should draw in roughly 10 years. She reminds me of the conversation every year my for 20 years.