Idaho MSG Applications - Who's In
- Thread starter jabber
- Start date
BAKPAKR
Well-known member
idelkslayer
Well-known member
- Joined
- Aug 28, 2013
- Messages
- 323
You didn't ask for this, I'm just using your example to show how random odds work over time.
It is often easier to think that with 15% odds you should draw after 100/15 or 6.7 years. But it isn't that simple because it is random and the odds can never be 100%.
The odds of being drawn at least once over a specific time period is given by the equation 1-(1-P)^n. Where P is the probability of being drawn in each individual year and n is the number of years. In your case 1-0.85^10= 80.3%. So assuming a 15% chance each year, the odds that you will have drawn at least once in 10 years is 80.3%. In a truly random drawing it will never reach 100% but applying consistently does increase your odds over time. After 15 years the odds that you will have drawn go up to 91.2%. After 20 years it goes up to 96.1%.
The wrinkle is if the odds decline over that time period. Then you would calculate by taking 1- [(1-P)*(1-P)*(1-P)*...(1-P)] where P is the odds for each year you apply. If the odds over the 10 year period drop by 5% (0.5% per year), then your probability of being drawn once in that period would be 74.1%.
I had this exact comment with my wife about the 10% draw odd moose unit 20 years ago. I told her that theoretically she should draw in roughly 10 years. She reminds me of the conversation every year for 20 years.
Last edited:
Lilhowie83
Well-known member
Are you guys in for our favorite unit in Southeast Idaho where @JohnCushman shot his moose?
Some of us.
Lilhowie83
Well-known member
This is the first year I'm trying a different unit. I'll message you some pictures that a couple of moose my friends have taken the last couple of years. In my opinion, it has become the best moose unit in the state, but I wish they would drop it back to 5 tags. I think over time the quality is going to go down with the higher tag number.
