I am not believing there are 4700 elk in 15 and 27. Spent 5 days muzzleloader, 4 days 1st rifle and 4 days second rifle plus 2 days scouting during third rifle. I heard 6 or 7 rifle shots the whole time.This is the post hunt estimate provided by cpw from 2022
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Surely it’s not perfect, how not perfect I don’t think I’m qualified to say
ID refuses to send wolves to CO, joining WY and MT.
- Thread starter elkduds
- Start date
689 square miles, 4794 herd estimate, 7 elk per square mile, plenty of very large ranches.
I dunno, I wouldn’t totally dismiss the number
Bigjay73
Well-known member
I scoff at the elk estimates thinking they're way too high and I scoff at the deer estimates thinking they're way too low. Truth is probably that they're both corect and I really have no idea what I'm talking about.
D
Deleted member 40728
Guest
I don’t think there are any elk left on public in Colorado and the woofs will surely drive away the ones that are there.
Id start focusing on Montana general tags, especially if you are normally someone who puts in for Colorado units that take 7+ points.
Id start focusing on Montana general tags, especially if you are normally someone who puts in for Colorado units that take 7+ points.
not totally dismissing it, just saying it is suspect. I live here and keep my eyes and ears open. Over the past three years I’ve spent upwards of 40 days in summer and fall in this unit. I spent a day checking out the wintering areas down near the Colorado last winter. Drove through the kremmling area half a dozen times last winter bringing my kids to various competitions. Don’t let anyone tell you it wasn’t a severe winter in that area. Have traveled by foot and truck the entire north/south length of 15 and what I can access of 27( which isn’t much). Access is largely the issue in getting at elk in both these units. Take into account elk aren’t utilizing probably 30-40% of it too, would increase density. All that and with the amount of animals and sign I have encountered that number just doesn’t square up. Must be most of them are spending their days on the ranches. I’m not trying to suggest a conspiracy either. But something doesn’t add up and it makes me question all of the numbers.689 square miles, 4794 herd estimate, 7 elk per square mile, plenty of very large ranches.
I dunno, I wouldn’t totally dismiss the number
....or you could chat with the biologist.
i'm not suggesting there are actually 7 elk in every square mile, it's just another way to normalize the number to get a perspective of how many elk we're talking about in an area.
i don't disagree. there are plenty of reasons i think the estimates are suspect, but that doesn't mean they're disingenuous. I think there are equally plenty of reasons that they're not all that bad given how hard it is to do. it's an estimate and a statistical model the comes with the big asterisk of a +/- at the end.
as far as i can tell the HMP for gore has not been updated in almost 20 years, i also don't know how often they helicopter count every DAU to help anchor the ratios. but assuming the sex ratio is correct from the 2022 estimates, we're only talking about ~1800 bulls in the DAU and most the hunters are bull hunters for the regular reasons. if you just randomly, and maybe generously, assume 50% or more of those bulls are even hanging out on public we're talking about ~900 bulls spread in some capacity or small clusters in 433 square miles of publicly accessible ground.
as long as there are recent fly overs i think the sex ratios end up being one of the more reliable numbers they publish.
if most the cows are haning out on private too it's gonna be hard for most of us shmucks to get an idea of how many there are.
either way, the population model assumes a lot of things and so i don't disagree entirely. the assumptions on the inputs like non-hunting mortality and hunt wounding, yeah those are gonna be pretty big assumptions. and when was the last time they studied recruitment in the DAU? that could be a pretty big assumption too. hunter harvest is another input in the model, also something that has a degree of uncertainty.
cpw knows there is a +/- on their estimate and i suspect they don't publish it for a reason - i'm sure maybe it could be dug up somewhere? but i bet it's a pretty big range.
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another interesting tidbit i just dug up in the HMP @Mtn Dawg
"Seventy-five percent of the E-7 elk population is in GMU 15 and twenty-five percent is in GMU 27."
yeah it's almsot 20 years old, but, probably still true today.
it will be interesting to see how wolves will/could shake all of that up.
"Seventy-five percent of the E-7 elk population is in GMU 15 and twenty-five percent is in GMU 27."
yeah it's almsot 20 years old, but, probably still true today.
it will be interesting to see how wolves will/could shake all of that up.
They classified 1,180 elk in E-7 to come up with their 2022 modeled population estimate of 4,794 according to this document.
Joe Hulburt
Well-known member
We have plenty to spare!
www.kgw.com
Wolves from Oregon released in Colorado to kickstart reintroduction
The wolves were captured in Wallowa and Union counties over the weekend. They'll form the foundation of Colorado's own reintroduction efforts.
www.kgw.com
LOL.We have plenty to spare!
Wolves from Oregon released in Colorado to kickstart reintroduction
The wolves were captured in Wallowa and Union counties over the weekend. They'll form the foundation of Colorado's own reintroduction efforts.
"On Monday, they were released in Grand County, west of Boulder."
Like saying they were released in NV, west of Colorado.
What a shit show for bordering States.
Because of Colorado's ballot box biology of 0.91% voters, they have changed the dynamics for other States.
"If the animals do cross into Utah, they cannot be killed, even if they attack livestock or property, as they’re on endangered species lists nationwide. Instead, the protocol will be to contact one of the trappers with Utah’s Department of Agriculture and Food, who will locate, capture and relocate the wolf back to Colorado.
Political leaders in Utah have opposed wolf reintroduction plans, with the legislature funding larger delisting efforts. The Center for Biological Diversity praised Colorado’s reintroduction of wolves."
www.upr.org
Because of Colorado's ballot box biology of 0.91% voters, they have changed the dynamics for other States.
"If the animals do cross into Utah, they cannot be killed, even if they attack livestock or property, as they’re on endangered species lists nationwide. Instead, the protocol will be to contact one of the trappers with Utah’s Department of Agriculture and Food, who will locate, capture and relocate the wolf back to Colorado.
Political leaders in Utah have opposed wolf reintroduction plans, with the legislature funding larger delisting efforts. The Center for Biological Diversity praised Colorado’s reintroduction of wolves."
Wednesday AM headlines: Santa's reindeer? No, it's just the DWR tracking migration
In other news, Salt Lake City was awarded nearly $1 million for road safety education, and also opened a temporary microshelter community to help homelessness in the city. And, Utah is preparing for reintroduced Colorado wolves to possibly cross the border.
www.upr.org
Haha that is pretty funny - just want to give a nod to the Boulder folks who voted for introduction. There is quite a bit of difference between Boulder and Grand County. Does anyone know the exact release areas? I thought I saw Radium SWA, but haven't had the time to look into it.
I don’t think there is an official statement and I doubt there will be. But who knows
Exactly. The only information that I have seen that is causing that particular location to be floated as the “definitive release site“ is a secondhand account from someone that knows the dude that owns Rancho del Rio. He reported that a bunch of CPW trucks drove past Rancho on trough road and turned up Sheephorn. I’m not saying it’s not true, just that it’s not verifiable (and probably won’t be for quite some time).
Maybe folks have more concrete information, and sheephorn certainly makes logical sense (State land, River corridor barrier to the north, lots of big country south and east) but the only “source“ I’ve seen is an anecdote.
Plus it’s a bit of a surprise given they have been telling us for some time that they are targeting 1st phase release for Vail corridor, Aspen corridor or Montrose. Sheephorn area north to Radium swa is a major wintering area for mule deer and elk. I guess now they will get that stubborn over objective unit 15 herd under control once and for all.
Khunter
Well-known member
Radium SWA area. and maybe up sherp hon creek a bit is what i think but cannot prove. need to do a lil google earth work with the landscape photo they posted
