Go Hunt Predictive Odds

[Mallardsx2]

It’s a prediction. You can predict any outcome regardless of how much or little information is available. By definition it’s never going to be 100% accurate regardless of how much information they have.

You right. I agree....but they are touting 95% accuracy..............

 

[SAJ-99]

You right. I agree....but they are touting 95% accuracy..............

Accuracy is about the same as my odds of not drawing a tag.

 

[tormenter]

I spoke with the biologist and he said they do not expect any changes in tag allotments for this unit, therefore unless a bunch of reasonably high point holders that have not been applying - start applying then the odds they are showing me are definitely not correct. I am going to take pictures of what they are saying and will gladly revisit this after the topic after the draw results come out.

 

[Kiwi]

I spoke with the biologist and he said they do not expect any changes in tag allotments for this unit, therefore unless a bunch of reasonably high point holders that have not been applying - start applying then the odds they are showing me are definitely not correct. I am going to take pictures of what they are saying and will gladly revisit this after the topic after the draw results come out.

If you are applying in the same unit as me, then I know of one reasonably high point holder applying

 

[tormenter]

Looks like you are a Nonresident- won't affect my odds.

 

[LCH]

Well, no surprise, but the predictive odds were way off on the Wyoming bull tag I applied for. It said 41% at 11 points, real result was 66% at 13 points. No quota changes or anything.

 

[Bowmannate2000]

Well, no surprise, but the predictive odds were way off on the Wyoming bull tag I applied for. It said 41% at 11 points, real result was 66% at 13 points. No quota changes or anything.

Yeah not surprising. Predictive odds are going to change people's application behavior, thus altering said odds. When they predict 11 points, all the people with 12 and 13 that want to hunt this year will apply and take that tag.

 

[cgasner1]

Yeah not surprising. Predictive odds are going to change people's application behavior, thus altering said odds. When they predict 11 points, all the people with 12 and 13 that want to hunt this year will apply and take that tag.

Wish they would let me tweak that algorithm… make creep look really bad in the unit I want