Draw odds over a period of years.

[ImBillT]

Good post, although I disagree with these two numbers. I calculated the probability for drawing at least once in 20 years. Here's my work:

P(draw zero times) = (.9)^20 = 12%
P(draw once) = ((.9)^19)(.1)(19) = 26%
P(draw at least twice) = 1- P(draw zero times) - P(draw once) = 1 – 12% - 26% = 62%

I didn't calculate the second probability.

I’m not gonna day I couldn’t use a refresher on statistics, but I THINK it should be at least as likely to draw twice in 20yrs as once in ten, and actually more likely.

Soo...why would the odds of something happening exactly zero times be different than the odds of something happening exactly one time? They should be th same. You’re still looking for a single specific outcome. What I did the first time was (.9^20) for the odds that it would happen zero times, which is 12.16%. Then subtract that from one for the odds that it would happen at least once at 87.84%. The odds that it would happen twice would be .8784^2, or 77.2% I now see that that would be invalid because that would be the odds that it would happen at least once in twenty years over two consecutive twenty years periods.

Doing it the other way would be 1-(.9^20+.9^20) which gives you 74.3%. This should be valid.

Edit: I think that’s still wrong. Perhaps your is correct. I still think that it should approach 100% of applicants drawing 10% of years.

 

[ImBillT]

The points systems in the various states serve as a great filter and barrier to persons who are not truly committed to the overwhelming long-term endurance game of possibly drawing a premium tag during their lifetime. If one is not committed to the decades long applications process and the annual disappointment of not drawing - then just buy general tags or buy no draw, private hunts.

I hope the fees continue to rise each year for the draws and points. Higher fees equals less committed applicants. Short term failures in nor drawing are part of eventual long-term success.

The end point of your suggestion is that only those who began applying at the minimum will draw, and they will begin doing so at the median age at which hunters stop hunting. I would prefer a system that doesn’t punish late entrants to the point game, those who can’t go a specific year and stay out of the game that year, or those who choose to hunt an easier to draw hunt in the meantime. One of the redeeming qualities of the Wyoming system is the fact that drawing a second choice doesn’t dissolve your points.

Although I think debating points vs no points is a good thing, it wasn’t really the point of the thread. It was more just because I was trying to brace myself for failure to draw in NM after drawing both deer and elk there last year, and in the process I decided that perhaps getting a little more grasp on the reality of the situation would be beneficial to others as well.

 

[----]

Only a one year deal, but in a similar vein to Buzz's story. A few years ago my Dad applied for an antelope tag in Montana. 35% of the people 0 points drew, 85% with 1 point drew, 100% of the people with two points drew, and none applied with three. He applied with 4 and didn't draw.

Regardless of odds, anything between 1% odds and 99% odds still has two possible outcomes.

 

[ImBillT]

No bid deal...I did all right on the years I didn't draw my first choice pronghorn tag. Second choice tags in Wyoming are usually better than first choice tags in other states.

Another year, I drew every first choice in Wyoming for deer, elk, and pronghorn...all less than 20% odds. I think if you apply for enough states for enough tags, you're going to hit good luck and bad.

I think that should be the take-away when applying for tags.

This. If you apply for enough, it evens out in the long run.

 

[Kiwi]

Interesting thread. How about the odds in WY when you have a chance in the points draw and than a second chance in the random draw. Of course using the previous years results. So you have a X% chance across two related but seperate draws. Could never get my head around that!

 

[ImBillT]

Interesting thread. How about the odds in WY when you have a chance in the points draw and than a second chance in the random draw. Of course using the previous years results. So you have a X% chance across two related but seperate draws. Could never get my head around that!

I may be doing everything beyond the basic “at least once in X years” completely wrong. I’m getting the feeling that I only remember enough to be dangerous. That said, I believe it would be the probability that you would draw in the first round, plus the probability that you would not draw in the first round multiplied by the probability that you would draw in the second round. So if you had a 60% chance in the priority round, and a 10% chance in the random round, I think you would have more like a 66% chance overall rather than 70%. I also think the shake down there isn’t going to leave many people with high enough odds in the random round to matter. For PRACTICAL purposes your odds are equal to which ever round is highest. Low point holders would have 0% in the priority round and 5% in the random round, while high point holders for the same hunt might be more like 60% in the priority round and 5% in the random round. Maybe that’s 65%, maybe it’s 62%. Whatever it is, you’re cruising pretty near 60%.

 

[ImBillT]

The points systems in the various states serve as a great filter and barrier to persons who are not truly committed to the overwhelming long-term endurance game of possibly drawing a premium tag during their lifetime. If one is not committed to the decades long applications process and the annual disappointment of not drawing - then just buy general tags or buy no draw, private hunts.

I hope the fees continue to rise each year for the draws and points. Higher fees equals less committed applicants. Short term failures in nor drawing are part of eventual long-term success.

I thought about it a little more. If you apply for a 10% odds hunt for twenty years, your odds of drawing in the time span are about 88%. If I apply for the same hunt a single time, my odds of drawing are 10%. The “dedicated” hunter you speak of doesn’t need any further increase in drawing odds.

If your opinion is that fees should go up until your odds are wonderful then you really should be the one paying to hunt private, which I have nothing against. That is the price point that weeds most people out. That is the “fair market value” for a guaranteed tag and that is very near the end point of raising the price until tags stop selling.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Trying to figure out the draw odds!

View attachment 102931

OR,

 

[Duck-Slayer]

These statistics got me thinking about all the people that complain about not getting drawn, even in states that everyone has a chance to draw. I applied in a unit 1 time that had 45 tags. 47 people applied, I was 1 of the 2. The following year 50 people applied, I was 1 of the 5. The 3rd year there was 46 who applied, and luck would have it I was the 1 that didn’t.... lol. But I put in for the 1 tag that was leftover and the 2nd time there was 4 tags and each time I drew them on a 2nd chance drawing! That being said I have never drawn an elk tag in any state! Do I ever complain about not getting drawn. No! Never! I wish all states would take those points and shove them where the sun don’t shine. And the people that never draw and think they “deserve a tag” can go drink on, I don’t give a $4!+ whiskey lol life’s not fare and never will be no matter how hard those morons try lol... man I’m on rant tonight or what, cheers
Matt

 

[Flatrock]

No bid deal...I did all right on the years I didn't draw my first choice pronghorn tag. Second choice tags in Wyoming are usually better than first choice tags in other states.

Another year, I drew every first choice in Wyoming for deer, elk, and pronghorn...all less than 20% odds. I think if you apply for enough states for enough tags, you're going to hit good luck and bad.

I think that should be the take-away when applying for tags.

Yea, in theory it should mostly even out. I'm trying to be patient for my bad luck to switch but it's getting tough! Some year it'll switch and I'll hit on about 4 primo tags...

 

[antelopedundee]

Yea, in theory it should mostly even out. I'm trying to be patient for my bad luck to switch but it's getting tough! Some year it'll switch and I'll hit on about 4 primo tags...

And it would be your luck that the tags would be such that you'd need to be in 2 places at the same time which may be a risk if you apply for oodles of tags. How do those hunting show folks manage to draw so many tags all the time?

But in a way it's like the lottery where ya gotta be in it to win it. Ya pays yer money and ya takes yer chances.

 

[ImBillT]

And it would be your luck that the tags would be such that you'd need to be in 2 places at the same time which may be a risk if you apply for oodles of tags. How do those hunting show folks manage to draw so many tags all the time?

But in a way it's like the lottery where ya gotta be in it to win it. Ya pays yer money and ya takes yer chances.

AZ elk and antelope, UT, NM. You know AZ before the UT app. For UT and NM I apply for hunt dates such that there is either no interference, or the UT season is long enough to hunt NM and then get 5+ days in UT. After NM results but before UT results is NV, where I don’t currently apply. Following those results are apps for MT antelope, Wyoming deer and antelope, ID deer, elk and antelope, and AZ deer, antelope and bison. You can apply for in the draw some species in one state and points for that species in others to avoid conflicts. The primary conflicts that are hard to avoid are WY and AZ elk apps, and MT elk, UT, and Nevada.

I currently apply in AZ, NM, and UT with points in Wyoming and OTC CO and ID draw as backups. I’m not at risk of drawing multiple hunts with dates that inhibit my ability to hunt them both. It’s possible to apply in a lot more states than that and avoid conflicts.

If drawing more than 2-3 tags total will cause a problem then you have to be slightly more careful. I want 2-3 tags every year with at least one being a deer and one an elk. I know I missed AZ elk and antelope. I know my UT apps are a long shot, AND you can only draw one tag in UT. I have a .34% chance of drawing deer and elk in NM, and a 79% chance of drawing both. After NM and UT results come out I can do AZ for deer if I don’t have a deer tag and CO or ID for elk if I don’t have an elk tag. For antelope I only want to draw in NM this year. Antelope hunts are mostly early in the hunting season and with a kid due in late June the only Sept hunt I need to be going on is a three day hunt close to home.

If I draw an OIL species, oh well. I can live with a conflict. I didn’t put in for those in NM this year though. There’s no point system and I’d prefer to draw them a different year. For AZ and UT, I decided that if I’m going to pay for a point, I might as well have name in the hat for the same price.