Draw odds over a period of years.

[ImBillT]

There appears to be some dissatisfaction with draw odds and fairness and I somewhat expect that to be based largely on misconception. If I did something wrong, the explanation of the math is at the bottom. I ran the match on a few different scenarios just to check things out.

10% draw odds.
The odds I will draw a 10% hunt at least once in ten years is 65%. 35% of people doing this will fail to draw at least once in ten years. The odds of drawing at least once in twenty years is 88%, which I THINK mirrors the odds of drawing at least twice in ten years. Which adds up, because a guy who drew twice has to be the reason for a guy only drawing once, and the pool was the same every time, then both of those have to add up. So, over 20 years 88% of applicants will have drawn at least twice, and 12% will have drawn once or not at all.
The take away:
10yrs- 65% odds
20yrs- 88% odds
Twice in 20yrs 77.4%
Thrice in 30yrs 87.8%

1% lots of folks think that if they apply for a 1% odds hunt for fifty years that they have a fifty fifty chance...it’s 39.5% Still not the worst news ever.
10yrs- 9.6%
20yrs- 18.6%
50yrs- 39.5%

.1% Somebody has to win right?
10yrs-1%
20yrs-2%
50yrs-4.9%
I guess that’s about what most people probably assumed.

Well, all my species in non-res states adds up to 18 applications. If I assume that my first choice is going to have 1% odds and I’m going to hunt for twenty more years, what are the odds that I draw one of those hunts at least once? That’s 360 apps, so 97.3%.

.1% over 360 apps-30.2%

Hope that helps.






It’s been quite a few years since I took a statistics class, but I decided to do a little math, and I think I did it correctly. The probability that something will happen at least once over a span of years should be 1-(the probability that it won’t happen)^nth where n is the number of years. The probability that it won’t happen is the number of negative outcomes decided by the number of total outcomes. So if something has a probability of 1/10, then the probability of it not happening is 9/10, so the probability that something that occurs 1/10 of the time will occur at least once in ten trials is (9/10)^10 or 65%. Where I really am not certain is trying to do it at least twice. I THINK that would be the probability of it not happening at least once to the power of how many times you want it to occur, so at least twice in 10yrs would be 12.2%, at least thrice would be 4.2%

 

[Trial153]

Or you can Goggle a probability calculator.

That said your pretty much spot on. I think as a general consensus most that dont run the numbers over estimate their implied odds over a given time frame.
The telling and missing variable is the cost of those implied odds in dollars, inflation and lost interest over the years of the equation.
More and more it makes sense to just pay and go hunt.

 

[Muskeez]

My brother teaches HS Stats, Algebra, etc... His favorite saying is "Math is Everywhere" - he's correct. Thank you for posting this, as I believe most folks, myself included would assume 10% odds pretty much means you are nearly sure to draw in 10 years.

 

[BuzzH]

I never bothered to calculate, but in 3 consecutive years...I didn't draw a first choice pronghorn tag in areas with 78, 85, and 92 percent draw odds areas.

I would think the actual odds of that happening, with those success rates, in 3 consecutive years to be pretty small...but its also been a long time since I took college statistics.

I also remember applying for a turkey permit in Western Montana in about 1984...25 tags issued, 28 people applied. My buddy, his Dad, and myself all applied...2 of the 3 that didn't draw were me and my buddies Dad.

What I do know, is if the odds aren't 100%, someone isn't going to draw and sometimes you find yourself in that percentile of people.

Also happens the other way, where you find yourself with a tag that has 1% or less odds of drawing success.

 

[Firedude]

I personally know 2 people that were at the extreme end of not drawing tags. One put in for moose for 28 years in a 1 in 8 average hunt. The other was 36 years in a similar odds unit. No matter how many years you stretch the odds out you are NEVER guaranteed a tag. If you asked those guys about a point system they were all for it. I gave up on Elk, Deer, and Antelope in my home state because I had similar results. I had doubled the years of odds drawing for elk and tripled it for antelope. But I drew Moose in 3 years and Sheep in 1. Put in for goat for 3 with no tag in a 1 in 6ish unit. I'll keep playing the Trophy Species because that's where I seem to be lucky. I buy points in another state just because I see a light at the end of the tunnel. But I see how with to many applicants points are bad too. I've kind of just resigned myself to the thinking of if it's a 1 in 8 odds hunt then every year my odds are 1 in 8.

 

[WapitiBob]

Missing is how a particular draw is run and how the random numbers are assigned. My 10% might be a lot better than your 10%, depending on the state.

 

[Trial153]

Missing is how a particular draw is run and how the random numbers are assigned. My 10% might be a lot better than your 10%, depending on the state.

Bob, can you expound on this?

 

[ImBillT]

Missing is how a particular draw is run and how the random numbers are assigned. My 10% might be a lot better than your 10%, depending on the state.

I’m assuming you had a true probability of whatever was used in the scenario. So 10% doesn’t mean that the Utah published odds was 10%, because that’s usually wrong by an order of magnitude or more, and of course there is NM which borders on imppossible to actually figure out due to not knowing what hunt second and third choice applicants chose as their first and second choices. In other words, a true 10% probability. Something like GoHunt odds of 10%.

 

[ImBillT]

28yrs on the 1/8 moose hunt was about 2%

Buzz’s bad luck was about .2% or even ten times less likely.

 

[ImBillT]

While this is in no way the intended topic of the thread, this is leading me to be slightly open to a modification of my preference for purely random draws. On a difficult to draw hunt, I’m still against points because they severely reduce or entirely eliminate the odds of a newcomer drawing while only marginally increasing the odds of a high point holder actually drawing. Additionally, points “punish” the point holder for drawing an easy to draw hunt. I do not think that being willing to take an “opportunity” hunt should force you to the back of the line on the “glory” hunt. On the other hand, it does seem as though the odds of not drawing a hunt that appears to be easy to draw is a lot higher than I thought. Although it’s still low, the probability of not drawing a 30% odds hunt over a ten year period is 2.8%. So while I do not like the two big negatives that I see with point systems, the positive is bigger than I realized. Perhaps I could get on board with point systems that held out a very few tags for preference point holders and allocated the rest randomly. Arizona’s 20/80 split comes to mind. I think it’s a shame that the non-resident portion is essentially 50/50. And of course, I’d prefer that the remaining 80% of tags were allocated randomly without bonus points. Again, I was really just trying to put a more clear face on why we don’t draw hunts that we often expect to. Frankly I hadn’t really expected the odds of not drawing over a number of years to be quite as high as they are.

 

[Gr8bawana]

Trying to figure out the draw odds!

 

[ImBillT]

An important point to remember is that this pertains to entering the draw repeatedly, not to building points on the sidelines for 20yrs and jumping in. That should be obvious, but it is important.

 

[Trial153]

Unless there is a yearly hard cap that spans all states ....we are all screwed.

 

[WapitiBob]

Bob, can you expound on this?

pm'd

 

[Firedude]

Yeah I'm no fan of a pure point system either in any way. Especially preference points. But I've always kind of liked split systems. Like 10% points and the rest being random. I realize that makes random odds worse however it does give you hope that someday that tag will be yours if you keep trying. The other option is extending sit out times.

 

[TheGrayRider]

The points systems in the various states serve as a great filter and barrier to persons who are not truly committed to the overwhelming long-term endurance game of possibly drawing a premium tag during their lifetime. If one is not committed to the decades long applications process and the annual disappointment of not drawing - then just buy general tags or buy no draw, private hunts.

I hope the fees continue to rise each year for the draws and points. Higher fees equals less committed applicants. Short term failures in nor drawing are part of eventual long-term success.

 

[Bullshot]

GrayRider - Ppl may disagree with your sentiment, or at least some of the consequences of your sentiment, but rest assured your hope WILL be fulfilled.

I am a big fan of figuring out the statistics on draws, multiple draws, etc. It is still (at this point) more fun than depressing to me. But it surely has illustrated the large sums of money that need to be thrown at the problem to tilt things in your favor (where possible, such as raffles). I wish that all draws had a random component. But nobody (or at least very few) have enough money in the bank or days left on this earth to fulfill all their dream hunts, so once you accept that, just play the game where you can afford it. Try to make it fun though. I just posted in a different thread that the way I do that is to apply for a bunch of near impossible tags. Hey somebody has to win. But if I was closer to the west, I would definitely change my strategy and apply for easier draws in order to hunt much more often.

 

[jtm307]

Twice in 20yrs 77.4%
Thrice in 30yrs 87.8%

Good post, although I disagree with these two numbers. I calculated the probability for drawing at least once in 20 years. Here's my work:

P(draw zero times) = (.9)^20 = 12%
P(draw once) = ((.9)^19)(.1)(19) = 26%
P(draw at least twice) = 1- P(draw zero times) - P(draw once) = 1 – 12% - 26% = 62%

I didn't calculate the second probability.

 

[jtm307]

I never bothered to calculate, but in 3 consecutive years...I didn't draw a first choice pronghorn tag in areas with 78, 85, and 92 percent draw odds areas.

.22*.15*.08 = .26%

That's some seriously bad luck, Buzz. There are always going to be people on both extreme ends of the bell curve. I've never been on your side of the curve... knock on wood.

 

[BuzzH]

.22*.15*.08 = .26%

That's some seriously bad luck, Buzz. There are always going to be people on both extreme ends of the bell curve. I've never been on your side of the curve... knock on wood.

No bid deal...I did all right on the years I didn't draw my first choice pronghorn tag. Second choice tags in Wyoming are usually better than first choice tags in other states.

Another year, I drew every first choice in Wyoming for deer, elk, and pronghorn...all less than 20% odds. I think if you apply for enough states for enough tags, you're going to hit good luck and bad.

I think that should be the take-away when applying for tags.