AvidIndoorsman
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7Hr, License allocation
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CPW Commission Meeting, Live 9/2
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Zach
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Interesting "soliloquy" as Tutchton put it in his own words.... I keep hearing the commissioner who cried wolf in the back of my head(and for anyone reading along, that is not a vote in one direction or the other on reintroduction, but rather the mindset of this particular commissioner).
The allocation discussion went all over the map.. definitely a bit of confusion about how the system even works among the commission members. In the end they committed to look into options without adding additional units, which seems to mean, nothing is going to happen.
AvidIndoorsman
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Honestly I feel like we all need to buy McDaniel a beer, his patience and professionalism is astounding.
Also, I've made some snarky comments about commissioners experience in the system, but McDaniel and Haskett did bring up their own experiences apply. McDaniel brought up the fact that CO has the most generous allocations for elk tags out there and the fact he applies in 6 states. Haskett discussed her own experience with point creep, she started applying in a unit when it was 3pts and drew at year 25.
What I hadn't considered previously was the fact that point creep could make every tag an 80/20 split and the original intent was only to make a small group of units have that lower split.
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Pelican
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FFS. I just watched to the allocation discussion. Prenslow babbling about a change to quality mgmt needing to involve local communities which has nothing to do with allocation. Commissioners talking about using 10 or 12 points instead of 6 to keep 41 hunt codes at 80/20 which accomplishes nothing. People talking about not having enough time before the 2021 draw to analyze how many hunt codes would change when Katie had already presented it to them. We residents just want a more normal percentage of our tags. I’m wondering if we need to keep emailing the commission so this doesn’t fall by the wayside again.
AvidIndoorsman
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My assumption was Prenslow’s community comment was a nod to the guiding community, ie if we change the quota we might piss of guides who lose clients.
The rest of the comments where about what the original intent of the hard cap v soft cap split was and whether you honor that or head down a different path. I think the idea is that point creep has happened somewhat uniformly so it’s not as if residents are now getting proportionally less tags than in 2009, and if point point creep continues you can see a scenario where a lot units go hardcap.
Personally I think it’s just a crappy bandaid on a bad system. Preference point were just a stupid idea. You can make the split 90/10 or even shut off units like 10/201/2 to NR entirely but that’s not going to change the fact that people with 10 point will likely never draw in their lifetime. Resource is just too scarce for demand.
Personally I think perceptions of unfairness undermine the system and we aren’t getting rid of pref points anytime soon, therefore I think the commission should make the rule that any hunt code over a set number of points for the past three seasons is 80/20. I think that’s how most people think it works.
Long term the commission needs to talk about the 800lb gorilla. Honestly I think we should adopt the MSG draw system for elk and deer as well. Just convert everyone’s points.
Pelican
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Yeah, maybe? I got the impression he somehow thought that adding hunt codes to the 80split somehow mandated a change in mgmt, which I don’t believe is the case. Yep, the outfitters (commissioner Haskett) will likely loose clients.
I don’t think the original intent matters now. The R/NR split was BS then and it is in 2020. There is almost 2000 hunt codes between deer and elk combined, so less than 5% would be under a 80:20 split if they used the last three years of pp data.
Agreed, but we have to ween CPW off the NR teet at some point. The commission punted on this issue in 2014, punted last year, and put it off until Sept this year, and are now saying they don’ have time to deal with it before the 2021 draw, punting again. It’s like watching the Broncos offense. There is no reason the list of hunt codes under 80:20 split isn’t updated annually.
Dinkshooter
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Current commission needs an AENIMA
Zach
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They'll be fine if they just pull their collective heads out.
COEngineer
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MSG?
COEngineer
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Thanks Oak.
I like the idea of slowly fazing out preference points altogether. What if CO stopped issuing points (keep what you have, but no new ones) and then progressively increased the percentage of tags that are just plain lottery draws. Basically like the hybrid draw system, but instead of only units requiring 10+ points, it applies to all units and each year the split moves towards a plain lottery. So 80/20 next year, 75/25 the following year and on down to 0/100. That would take 15 years and after that, no more points.
What do you think?
I'd take this approach in the absence of an AZ/WY style 'preference/random split' approach to the draw (although, as I've noted before, I'd be fine with total random as well provided there were more OIL restrictions and/or waiting periods for certain tags). I think you're right - there is distrust in the system already (some for valid reasons, mostly for INvalid perceptions) and preference points of some variety are unlikely to go away.
"If" they were to go this route - they should also simplify the weighted point impact it to just 'each weighted point is an extra ball in the hat' - the math on the current "divisor to your number" method is almost exactly the same anyway until you get up into very high numbers of trials, and this would quiet down the noise of 'but it's all about your random number' from folks that don't understand probability.
I don't get it either. Just a rolling three year average. Most high schoolers could do the math in Excel in about 10 minutes.
AvidIndoorsman
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Lots of talk about EE061E1R, lets break this down, quota is 30.
20% go to landowners, 6
53% go to residents 16
27% go to non-residents 8
If you adjust this to the 80/20 split then 6 tags would go to NR.
So yes the entire issue is 2 tags.
Should that unit be 80/20 definitely, should it happen before next draw period, absolutely, that said it is 2 tags.
Here are the hunt codes that require 16 points or more with their total quota.
318 total tags, of those ~50 tags go to landowners.
So 253 tags a year for folks to draw.
There are 10,468 people with 16 or more points.
If you froze points today, and just made it a straight lottery for the people that have 16 points or more, with the winner getting a tag from one of these codes it would take:
18 Years for all the residents to get drawn
144 Years for all the Non-Residents to get drawn.
Most folks are going to die with their pref points, that's just the way that it is. If I was a NR with 28 points or less I would be looking for a way to burn them next year.
If you are a resident and have 20 points you are likely going to be at the very least 34 points likely 39 points and possibly more before you draw any tag in 002,201,or 10 unless you do so in the hybrid, or a pile of people just die.
20% go to landowners, 6
53% go to residents 16
27% go to non-residents 8
If you adjust this to the 80/20 split then 6 tags would go to NR.
So yes the entire issue is 2 tags.
Should that unit be 80/20 definitely, should it happen before next draw period, absolutely, that said it is 2 tags.
Here are the hunt codes that require 16 points or more with their total quota.
318 total tags, of those ~50 tags go to landowners.
So 253 tags a year for folks to draw.
There are 10,468 people with 16 or more points.
If you froze points today, and just made it a straight lottery for the people that have 16 points or more, with the winner getting a tag from one of these codes it would take:
18 Years for all the residents to get drawn
144 Years for all the Non-Residents to get drawn.
Most folks are going to die with their pref points, that's just the way that it is. If I was a NR with 28 points or less I would be looking for a way to burn them next year.
If you are a resident and have 20 points you are likely going to be at the very least 34 points likely 39 points and possibly more before you draw any tag in 002,201,or 10 unless you do so in the hybrid, or a pile of people just die.
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@wllm1313 - good analysis as always - although it's even worse for NR in that scenario as 45 of those tags are not available to NR's (43 RFW tags and whatever those 2 Bosque 'J2R' tags are).
It's grim. There is a really small universe of people that have a legitimate shot at drawing those tags in their lifetime and it's bleeding down into creep in the other limited units, as well as into OTC.
I need to listen to the meeting before I get riled up.
It's grim. There is a really small universe of people that have a legitimate shot at drawing those tags in their lifetime and it's bleeding down into creep in the other limited units, as well as into OTC.
I need to listen to the meeting before I get riled up.
COEngineer
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"So you're sayin' there's a chance."
Why did you pick 19 pts...I have exactly 19 pts.
AvidIndoorsman
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Sorry moving to fast should have been 20, updated.
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Dinkshooter
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Apply, Apply, Apply......
Garth Carter circa 2008
Garth Carter circa 2008
First person I remember encouraging people to apply is Jim Zumbo, and it was probably 10 years before this.
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