California Draw Statistics and Opportunities

[jryoung]

As a recovering accountant I love looking at draw odds and trends/opportunities.

If you out in for CA, give this a look, let me know what questions you might have, or any mistakes I might have made.

 

[brnsvllyjohn]

Good info and I think you may have helped a few hunters and probably hurt my chances by a tiny bit. LOL

Since this is the first year my grandson can apply and we have been looking really hard at the junior hunts. I am amazed at how many parents expect their junior hunter to just draw a great hunt the first time they apply. It takes points for almost all junior hunts but the random draw odds are better.

 

[LuketheDog]

You just need to tell me the best way the get my hands on a tule elk tag...

 

[jryoung]

$20k...easy

 

[HuntCA]

"enjoyable"? lol. I find it mind-boggling. Thanks for the help. Bird hunting is simple compared to this big game mess. It would be nice for you to do something for those of us with little to no points and a strategy for that.

 

[jryoung]

"enjoyable"? lol. I find it mind-boggling. Thanks for the help. Bird hunting is simple compared to this big game mess. It would be nice for you to do something for those of us with little to no points and a strategy for that.

For deer, or elk, pronghorn and sheep? The big 3 is easy, apply for your best opportunity at a tag by dividing the random tags by the total number of applicants less preference tags.

For deer it's best to determine what you want to do. Is your goal to hunt a better tag every couple of years while hunting your home OTC area? If so, pick a premium tag that has a <5 point minimum draw odd. For example X1, X7B X8, or even X12. Once you pick one if these areas, go bear hunting there and start to learn how to hunt it. You can learn your home deer area A, B, D3-6 with OTC tags, but then add on some weekends bear hunting where you want to draw that premium tag so when you draw it, you have have a starting point.

If you just want to hunt your home OTC area each year and try for one of the highest demand premium tags, then just follow the methodology for the big 3. Pick your highest demand tag of choice, X5B, G3, G37, M3, M9 and pick the best odds available to the random draw.

Let me know if that helps.

 

[2rocky]

Thanks for doing the work to put that together JR. As for the group, I did have a neighbor who was the party leader get contacted on a tag that was turned back in... As the leader, he was offered that tag. It was for an elk hunt and it was after the draw. But you described exactly why I don't do group applications anymore. FWIW I have drawn 2 Deer tags and an elk tag since 2003. Random draw all of the times I'm pretty sure

 

[glass eye]

For deer I have drawn G6, M3, A26 Bass Hill. Surprise Valley Antelope, and Tule Elk East Park Reservoir Bull.
Now if can just draw sheep. No grand illusions of drawing it though.

 

[Mtnhunter1]

First: I think that you did a great service for those that apply in CA.
Second: With the current trend, how many more years/decades will CA actually allow hunting?
Third: Looking over your highlighted sheets and the associated draw odds, I am so glad that I live in Montana!

I enjoyed your video, even though I've only hunted pigs and turkey in your state.

 

[2rocky]

Mtn Hunter, it is ironic though there are so many more special hunting opportunities especially for elk, that have become available in the last 20 years. General areas in the Sierras are selling out and we can still get 2 deer tags a year. I think 2 new Sheep hunts were added in the last 5 years. The political situation is an easy scapegoat for people who don't want to make an effort to try and hunt.

It really is quite similar to Utah in the fact that the General success rates are low, public land is crowded, yet LE draws are for the most part quite rewarding, but mostly go to high PP applicants.

 

[jryoung]

The political situation is an easy scapegoat for people who don't want to make an effort to try and hunt.

It really is quite similar to Utah in the fact that the General success rates are low, public land is crowded, yet LE draws are for the most part quite rewarding, but mostly go to high PP applicants.

Truth.

We've added 10 new sheep tags in the past 2 years, I think that might be up to 12 this year, but I don't see the final approval from the Commission from April.

For perspective, obviously MT has way more elk opportunity, you have over a hundred thousand elk, where we have just north of 25k. But, a tule bull elk hunt on Grizzly Island has very similar odds to the Elkhorn tag.

We've got work to do for sure, but I'm again optimistic with the current goings on in the world that there is continued growing interest in hunting from our urban centers.

 

[HuntCA]

For deer, or elk, pronghorn and sheep? The big 3 is easy, apply for your best opportunity at a tag by dividing the random tags by the total number of applicants less preference tags.

For deer it's best to determine what you want to do. Is your goal to hunt a better tag every couple of years while hunting your home OTC area? If so, pick a premium tag that has a <5 point minimum draw odd. For example X1, X7B X8, or even X12. Once you pick one if these areas, go bear hunting there and start to learn how to hunt it. You can learn your home deer area A, B, D3-6 with OTC tags, but then add on some weekends bear hunting where you want to draw that premium tag so when you draw it, you have have a starting point.

If you just want to hunt your home OTC area each year and try for one of the highest demand premium tags, then just follow the methodology for the big 3. Pick your highest demand tag of choice, X5B, G3, G37, M3, M9 and pick the best odds available to the random draw.

Let me know if that helps.

JR, yes that does help, but let me just put this in perspective.

Bird hunting: Buy a general license. Buy the upland bird stamp. Research a place to hunt. Go hunt.

I completely understand why it has to be complex, but understand that to someone who has never big game hunted, it is stunningly complex at first. Not insurmountable, but much-considered thought needs to be done compared to upland/duck/small game hunting.

I really appreciate the input. Unfortunately I'm located in Southern Ca. Scouting areas is almost as big a planning process as is hunting. I've applied for D17 a few times and would like to again. Any suggestions for the southern areas? I have also scouted the D16 San Diego (inland) areas. I'm not looking for trophy and even a doe tag would be great. I know there is an antlerless hunt down there at some point. Can you speak to that and maybe talk about the "G" special hunts
and what those are? https://wildlife.ca.gov/Hunting/Deer#54774-zones--hunts Oh, and my son and I have 2pts each. lol.

Also, what are your thoughts on GoHunt and the research and tools over there? Thanks for all the help and information!

 

[jryoung]

I like GoHunt for many reason, but not for CA. I feel that given our preference point system, and limited number of hunts its more useful to dig into the drawing statistics spreadsheet that I use in the video. You can spit out numbers much more easily than clicking through a bunch of units.

 

[HuntCA]

jr,
I was re-reading your post and need some clarification. Can you define OTC(OverTheCounter)? Do you mean once a unit opens up in July if it's not all been sold out in the draw?

 

[jryoung]

OTC would be any tag that can be purchased OTC prior to or after the draw, so the unrestricted and restricted tags. A, B, D3-5, D6 etc etc. In the context above it would be putting a high demand premium unit as your first choice, and a guaranteed tag in the second slot.

 

[Bigjav]

With the number of bighorn sheep featured in the big game booklet you’d think that CA abounds with bighorns