Applying kids for preference/bonus points.
- Thread starter jzoller
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Go hunt just published an article on point creep. If there’s 5,000 people sitting on max points now for a limited draw hunt 1 year, 5 years and 10 years from now the quota for that hunt likely won’t change by much, yet the max point holders will multiply significantly.
J_Poiencot
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What is a limited draw hunt? There are some awesome units that people with 10, 15 and 20 points can get drawn and kill some huge elk, muleys and pronghorns. Like I said, im not understanding all of it I guess.
These would all be limited draw hints if it takes x# points to draw, there’s far more people applying than there are permits to go around. If a unit is great today taking 10 points or more and your just starting out with points, and if the unit keeps up it’s great reputation you have slightly better than zero chance at drawing as a resident of that state. If your a non resident odds are far worse. Example would be a hunt has 20 permits available and the given state only allocates up to 10% of the available permits for non res. You now have a chance a 2 permits.
I’m not sure I understand. The max point pool can’t multiply. It can only decrease as people draw, drop out, or die.
LCH
Well-known member
@NoWiser That's what I thought at first, but when you think about it.. Say max points are currently 20. Eventually (long time), everyone who currently 20 has drawn, given up, or died, and the max point holders will be the pool below that first group (currently at 19 in my example). Of course everybody's total goes up one point each year.
Each point pool, as you go down the ladder, has more and more applicants. So if you're just getting started, odds are you'll probably never get to "max" points.
Each point pool, as you go down the ladder, has more and more applicants. So if you're just getting started, odds are you'll probably never get to "max" points.
So today we’ll say the number of max holders 20, the people 10 points behind max are 250. How is that pool not going to change in the future?
I understand all of that. I guess what I was questioning was the definition of max points. The post I quoted said that if there are 5,000 max point holders now, that pool will multiply in 1, 5, and 10 years. It won't because there's no way all of those 5,000 people will draw, die, or drop out. The number of people in line with less than max points will grow.
LCH
Well-known member
Yes.. But the next group of people in line will be "max point" holders when the top point level has been cleaned out. I think it's just the phrasing that tripped me up for a minute.
Holy hell it was just a made up number
PAhunter
Well-known member
I don't know your residency, but I have experienced point creep as a nonresident first hand. 20 years ago I began buying points in UT, in hopes of drawing a great unit that, at the time, took 6-7 points to draw. Reality set in and last year with 18 points I applied for a 'mid-tier' unit and drew one of the tags reserved for applicants with highest points. The units that were 6-7 point units when I started 19 years earlier would have taken 22-24 points this year. The unit that I actually drew followed a similar but slightly lower rate of point creep. So if the rate of point creep is averaging ~ 3/4 point per year over 20 years, and it continues to hold that average for the long haul (it is likely to get worse, not better), the math says that if I start buying points now with intentions to draw a unit that currently takes 20 points to draw, it will take about 76 years for me to be able to draw that tag based on my points.
The good news is that if you're aiming for a unit that only takes 10 points to draw this year, you should be good to go in about 36 years.
You can look at other states that issue more tags to NR but if you are looking at a unit that takes 20 points to draw in any state, it is because it is an extremely coveted unit and there are many thousands of point holders in line in front of you vying for the yearly handful of tags available.
The only way that's going to change is if game departments follow WY's lead on big 3 point costs and raise the cost of gaining points for all species to a level that the vast majority of folks can't afford to pay (gonna have to be more than WY's current $150/pt, obviously. Maybe $1k per point per species would be enough?). We're not going to see trophy populations increase to levels that appreciably reduce point creep for premium units. Recessions are not going to solve the problem; the majority of folks committed to buying points over the long haul are those who are passionate enough about hunting to make it a priority, and they'll cut back somewhere else rather than "lose" 10+ years of points. Maybe at some point hunter numbers/participation will fall enough to appreciably affect point creep, but they will have to REALLY tank for it to have an impact.
With all that said, don't let me discourage you from buying points for your kids if you have the means to do so. It's still possible to draw premium tags from the random pool if they can beat extremely low odds. Just understand that those points don't guarantee that they'll ever draw a premium tag. When you get 15 years in and decide it's time to hunt with those kids, you'll likely have to become one of those folks looking for a lesser hunt where you can "burn" those points and just go hunting.
Kiwi
Well-known member
Lots of interesting comments. For me I’m buying points for 2 of my kids in AZ and WY. My thought is if they are going to hunt the west they should be able to get a better tag than OTC.
bluespruce
Member
I think what people are getting at is that in 20 years when your kids have 20 points, the 20 point hunts will then take 40 points. In the meantime you've likely spent thousands of dollars for something that you really can't be sure your children will want to do. Sure they like it now but children and young adult's interests can be fickle. My brother and I are a perfect example, we both grew up hunting from the time we could get licenses, but he stopped in his early 20s, I continued. Why? Other things/hobbies began to interest him more.
And that more than the money is really my biggest worry: that it may also build resentment if it turns out the kids don't actually like hunting. If my parents had bought points for me as a kid, I'd be a max point holder which would be great (although perhaps the pressure to justify my parents years of money would have resulted in me not enjoying the hunts??). Buying points for my brother? I don't know, maybe he would have kept hunting... or... maybe it would have caused all sorts of resentment and disappointment on both sides. Frankly, I can see resentment happening pretty easily as it seems the effort to help your children could easily become (or at least be misconstrued as) an effort to live vicariously through them and force your hobbies on them to give them the hunts you never had.
brownbear932008
Well-known member
You need to seriously study up on the term point creep if you haven't already. Those units that are awesome and take 20 points today will take many more by the time your children are teenagers or young adults. I wouldn't buy into that scheme unless you have money to burn and hoping the system changes someday.
It doesn't take 20 points to have some really good hunts. Don't buy points thinking your kids will ever get to hunt the elite units in the state. Guess what, 99.9% of western hunters won't hunt those units either. Buy your kid some points knowing he can go on a good hunt in CO and WY with a handful of points. Maybe a few more for AZ. But you will likely be taking him/her to some "mid tier" or for heavens sake "lower tier" units. Most of those are still pretty darn good hunts and you can likely hunt them several times before even thinking about drawing a top tier unit.
brownbear932008
Well-known member
A good speed goat hunt is very nice with new hunters lots of animals and easy terrian. WY is the place to buy them it would make a great first western hunt with a handful of points. And you won't break the bank doing so.
The Hedgehog
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My kids have points in in MT, WY, and Arizona. Although we usually hunt easy draw or general hunts - My son has cashed in a few times. Certainly worth it..
The B&C archery antelope cost 4 points, and he's got 4 points again. Time goes by too fast and before you know it, they've got enough to go on a fun hunt.
The B&C archery antelope cost 4 points, and he's got 4 points again. Time goes by too fast and before you know it, they've got enough to go on a fun hunt.
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J_Poiencot
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This is what I was talking about doing with my boys. maybe not shoot for the 20 point units, but the 4 and 5 or less units
elkantlers
Well-known member
I have bought my kids a bunch of points over the years. Some they have used and some they haven't yet. A few of the hunts we've been on are worth all the points fees I've paid. I've certainly spent my money on worse things.
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