Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Treeshark]

Speaking from an economic point of view only: either something really bad is about to happen, or a TACO Tuesday of epic proportions is about to go down (to be fair- there is a third option of Iran totally capitulating, but seems unlikely).

I can’t see how either one is a good option for the global economy.

 

[Rainer]

For the sake of the world and my portfolio. I hope he TACO's.

 

[Foxtrot1]

 

[SAJ-99]

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Thanks for sharing. It is a little depressing and a story shared across industries. This reads as "We want our handout too", despite the sentence about "does not want a handout". Sounds very similar to the problems facing the cattle industry - Consolidation at the wholesale paper product level means the smaller individual producers lose pricing power. Intl Paper makes about a 1/3 of all cardboard boxes in US. It closed a couple of mills down in your area citing maintenance and operating costs. Given the number of boxes that show up at my house every week, I am concerned that they can't make money at that.

It is hard to think of industry that isn't asking the Fed Government for money, either directly or indirectly. Even companies flush with cash like semiconductors and AI try to convince everyone we might get beat by the Chinese if they don't get a benefit. At some point we are going to discover the impossibility of all this. I don't think there are easy solutions particularly if the government lets industries consolidate without regard for the health of the overall market structure.

 

[Laszlo Cravensworth]

I don't think there are easy solutions particularly if the government lets industries consolidate without regard for the health of the overall market structure.

That's pretty much all the government has done around business consolidation in my adult life.

 

[Treeshark]

Back in black. Surprised.

 

[SAJ-99]

Can't bet against something that has worked every time.

 

[Dave N]

2 week pause just announced.

 

[Gulf of America]

Can't bet against something that has worked every time.

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The fact he set the deadline for a Tuesday has to be a troll job right?!?

 

[Treeshark]

The fact he set the deadline for a Tuesday has to be a troll job right?!?

I know, can’t make that up. Beautiful irony.

 

[Big Sky Guy]

Is anyone making any money on PolyMarket with this stuff? Please share your bets (winners and losers) if so!

Any bets on if Iran is going to make a counter statement denying they know about this 10 point proposal?

 

[Southern Elk]

Oil down 14% and Dow up 900 after hours. What a crazy world we live in.

 

[Nick87]

2 week pause just announced.

Crazy that I found out here. Never mentioned in my news feed once today.

 

[NDGuy]

They will probably change their minds tomorrow after loading puts

 

[SAJ-99]

One of the points, from NYT. Guesstimate is about $15/brl. Energy companies win again. We will see if this takes. I have doubts given you can’t trust any party in this “agreement”.

In return, Iran would lift its de facto blockade of the key shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran would also impose a fee of roughly $2 million per ship that it would split with Oman, which sits across the strait. Iran would use its share of the proceeds to reconstruct infrastructure destroyed by American and Israeli attacks, rather than demand direct compensation, according to the plan.