When to keep or replace a vehichle

[JAG]

Here's a 5 min spreadsheet that supports how I would look at it.
View attachment 386763

I was posting my post when you posted this.

Love the spreadsheet. You presented an equivalent, quantitative outcome of my anecdotal auto-ownership narrative above.

 

[Irrelevant]

If that's the case I'll make money trading for a newer used truck if im reading it right.

maybe, it doesn't look that way to me, but it at least lets you mess around with actual #s.

 

[Nick87]

maybe, it doesn't look that way to me, but it at least lets you mess around with actual #s.

Add the numbers up based on 5 years on the graph manually then take into consideration i have $12 to $13k of vehichle to trade in right now (according to kbb and me being conservative with it). I came up 4k ahead with the used pickup. Seriously check it for me maybe im missing something.

 

[Nick87]

I'll throw this out there to anyone with a vehicle they're considering getting rid of for any mechanical reason... This doesn't really apply to something that is rusting really bad.

This spring, I noticed a shudder in my transmission. I have a 2018 silverado with at the time 140k miles.
Little bit of research, and it's fairly common for these transmissions to go out between 60k-160k. I thought about it for awhile. Considered trading it in, considered waiting for it to blow and dropping the $5k on a rebuild, then considered one of those extended warranties...
Long story short, I have an extended warranty that'll cost me $3,700 over the course of 4 years or 100,000 miles, and with the transmission being an almost guaranteed failure point, along with the potential for lifters to go out, I figured I might as well be covered.

I did my homework and landed on Endurance for a warranty company after talking with transmission shops and auto shops in my area. Still doesn't give any warm fuzzy feelings while waiting for the transmission to go out. Especially when driving 2,500 miles round trip to chase elk 2x a fall.

You bought the warranty with 140k on the truck?

 

[rjthehunter]

You bought the warranty with 140k on the truck?

Yes sir, only requirement was i needed to wait 1 month and 1,000 miles before submitting any kind of claim.

 

[Nick87]

Yes sir, only requirement was i needed to wait 1 month and 1,000 miles before submitting any kind of claim.

Interesting..ill keep that in mind. I wish leasing was more cost effective only putting 7k or so miles on a year. I did read where some dealers do lease used pickups.

 

[rjthehunter]

Interesting..ill keep that in mind. I wish leasing was more cost effective only putting 7k or so miles on a year. I did read where some dealers do lease used pickups.

It pencils out in the end when considering the costs that'll inevitably come.

Leasing used to be tempting, but the last time I looked in to it, it was too much to justify it. That was like 4 years ago tho

 

[Dave N]

I'll sell you my Harley. It has saddlebags!

 

[Nick87]

I'll sell you my Harley. It has saddlebags!

I've never had any interest. If you saw my route today it'd be a death wish.

 

[Gulf of America]

I only put about 6 to 7k on the truck per year. Im honestly thinking about buying a newer truck (when the time comes) with higher miles. Because with the salt it’s clearly not paying to buy new and have it he rust on a newer low mile vehichle. And not driving in the winter isn't really an option. Thats when I do a lot of my hunting which is what I use the truck for. Not to mention we are pretty rural if I had to use the car I wouldn't make it to the pavement for a day or two at times.

With the mileage you put on a truck but rust being the big concern for anything used locally, you could look into a used truck in Arizona or somewhere similar. Make a family trip out of flying over and driving it back, or use Carvana or something like that (disclaimer I don’t have any actual experience with online car buying so I’d want to do a lot more research before going that route).

I know truck prices are ridiculously inflated in Montana, but I would imagine in a place like Arizona you might have a harder time finding 4WD but might be able to find better value.

 

[Nick87]

With the mileage you put on a truck but rust being the big concern for anything used locally, you could look into a used truck in Arizona or somewhere similar. Make a family trip out of flying over and driving it back, or use Carvana or something like that (disclaimer I don’t have any actual experience with online car buying so I’d want to do a lot more research before going that route).

I know truck prices are ridiculously inflated in Montana, but I would imagine in a place like Arizona you might have a harder time finding 4WD but might be able to find better value.

I've actually been looking at that.

 

[brymoore]

Here's a 5 min spreadsheet that supports how I would look at it.
View attachment 386763

Love it.

Only thoughts are new costs more money and used costs more maintenance eventually. The line blurs between cost of new/used once you hit the continued repair stage of used.

 

[WildWill]

Here's a 5 min spreadsheet that supports how I would look at it.
View attachment 386763

You're like 10k high or more on the cost of a new pickup unless he's getting a 2500. 50k is a more realistic starting number for a 4 door 4x4 new pickup.

 

[Irrelevant]

Add the numbers up based on 5 years on the graph manually then take into consideration i have $12 to $13k of vehichle to trade in right now (according to kbb and me being conservative with it). I came up 4k ahead with the used pickup. Seriously check it for me maybe im missing something.

Using the AI spreadsheet and some real world values, I can't get buying something new to even come close to being worth it. And that doesn't factor in the deterioration in MPG for the newer rigs as they age.

 

[sclancy27]

Using the AI spreadsheet and some real world values, I can't get buying something new to even come close to being worth it. And that doesn't factor in the deterioration in MPG for the newer rigs as they age.
View attachment 386800

You're even biasing the new vehicle (IMO) with the MPG difference. Real world MPG differences are closer IME. The gulf is even wider in a more realistic MPG scenario between just keeping the old truck and buying new. Prob why I still have a 1997 F350 with the 7.3L

 

[Gulf of America]

Using the AI spreadsheet and some real world values, I can't get buying something new to even come close to being worth it. And that doesn't factor in the deterioration in MPG for the newer rigs as they age.
View attachment 386800

The one issue I see here is that $2000 in annual maintenance is super low if anything actually starts falling apart. I just spent $500 changing gear oil and transmission oil in my 4Runner with 115k and that was doing it all myself - would have been at least twice that at a shop. Shit, an O2 sensor for the subie I sold was $200 just for the part and it was a PITA to change (ie, $$$ in labor). Suspension, diffs, all those things are starting to get to the realm of replacement at Nick's mileage, and I imagine salt makes every one of them more likely to fail early, and none would come in under that annual $2k.

I really do think the last couple years has kind of turned the "buying a new car is always a bad idea" thing on it's head. With used cars being stupid expensive and maintenance costs rising dramatically, if you can reasonably expect 100k miles out of a new car and sell it for not that big of a hit, it's really not the worst way to go.

 

[noharleyyet]

The one issue I see here is that $2000 in annual maintenance is super low if anything actually starts falling apart. I just spent $500 changing gear oil and transmission oil in my 4Runner with 115k and that was doing it all myself - would have been at least twice that at a shop. Shit, an O2 sensor for the subie I sold was $200 just for the part and it was a PITA to change (ie, $$$ in labor). Suspension, diffs, all those things are starting to get to the realm of replacement at Nick's mileage, and I imagine salt makes every one of them more likely to fail early, and none would come in under that annual $2k.

I really do think the last couple years has kind of turned the "buying a new car is always a bad idea" thing on it's head. With used cars being stupid expensive and maintenance costs rising dramatically, if you can reasonably expect 100k miles out of a new car and sell it for not that big of a hit, it's really not the worst way to go.

Yes sir, diff and transmission lubricant is gold....labor is platinum...ignoring is rhodium

 

[Irrelevant]

The one issue I see here is that $2000 in annual maintenance is super low if anything actually starts falling apart. I just spent $500 changing gear oil and transmission oil in my 4Runner with 115k and that was doing it all myself - would have been at least twice that at a shop. Shit, an O2 sensor for the subie I sold was $200 just for the part and it was a PITA to change (ie, $$$ in labor). Suspension, diffs, all those things are starting to get to the realm of replacement at Nick's mileage, and I imagine salt makes every one of them more likely to fail early, and none would come in under that annual $2k.

I really do think the last couple years has kind of turned the "buying a new car is always a bad idea" thing on it's head. With used cars being stupid expensive and maintenance costs rising dramatically, if you can reasonably expect 100k miles out of a new car and sell it for not that big of a hit, it's really not the worst way to go.

Annual maintenance costs have to be over 8k to catch up to the new option. And 3500 to equal the newer used. I don't see 8 as realistic, however maybe 3500 is.

 

[Forkyfinder]

1997 F350 with the 7.3L

5 speed?

 

[Irrelevant]

I found a few errors in the spreadsheet. See revised https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...ouid=116762368402627372969&rtpof=true&sd=true
Doesn't change much of the outcome. New is still more expensive. Newer used pays off sooner, depending on your annual maintenance assumptions.