West coast salmon recovery

[Irrelevant]

This popped up in my news feed and it was a good but sobering read. Hard to imagine the 10s of thousands of salmon that used to come 900 miles into Idaho.

https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/06/16/on-our-watch-salmon-extinction-on-the-middle-fork-salmon-river-in-the-heart-of-idaho/

Pat Ford did a good 4 part series last summer as well.

https://idahocapitalsun.com/2025/08/19/salmon-extinction-in-motion-in-washingtons-and-oregons-snake-river/

Salmon and steelhead extinction threshold science, and the ocean fish of northeast Oregon • Idaho Capital Sun

For Pacific Northwest steelhead and salmon populations, we are entering an extinction momentum that will be difficult to escape, writes Pat Ford.

idahocapitalsun.com

The good work underway by Pacific Northwest salmon people in northeast Oregon • Idaho Capital Sun

Editor’s note: This is the third installment of a four-part series on salmon that will run in the Idaho Capital Sun on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Part One described the emergency effort to rescue Washington state’s last population of Snake River spring and summer Chinook salmon, in...

idahocapitalsun.com

Last thoughts on salmon and steelhead extinction in the Pacific Northwest • Idaho Capital Sun

Editor’s note: This is the fourth installment of a four-part series on salmon. Part One described the emergency effort to rescue Washington state’s last population of Snake River spring and summer Chinook salmon, in the Tucannon River. Part Two explored salmon and steelhead extinction threshold...

idahocapitalsun.com

My biggest refute is to this claim in his "last thoughts"

Yet strong public and political awareness of the fishes’ dire condition is not optional if the lower Snake River is to be restored, so that Snake salmon and steelhead get their shot to restore themselves. Results on the Klamath, Elwha, White Salmon and other rivers strongly suggest that when salmon get that chance, they grab it.

There is actually very little evidence of increased populations in the White Salmon River post-dam removal. And, of course, those declines are attributed to poor ocean conditions.

 

[Goodfish]

Pat Ford did a good 4 part series last summer as well.

https://idahocapitalsun.com/2025/08/19/salmon-extinction-in-motion-in-washingtons-and-oregons-snake-river/

Salmon and steelhead extinction threshold science, and the ocean fish of northeast Oregon • Idaho Capital Sun

For Pacific Northwest steelhead and salmon populations, we are entering an extinction momentum that will be difficult to escape, writes Pat Ford.

idahocapitalsun.com

The good work underway by Pacific Northwest salmon people in northeast Oregon • Idaho Capital Sun

Editor’s note: This is the third installment of a four-part series on salmon that will run in the Idaho Capital Sun on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Part One described the emergency effort to rescue Washington state’s last population of Snake River spring and summer Chinook salmon, in...

idahocapitalsun.com

Last thoughts on salmon and steelhead extinction in the Pacific Northwest • Idaho Capital Sun

Editor’s note: This is the fourth installment of a four-part series on salmon. Part One described the emergency effort to rescue Washington state’s last population of Snake River spring and summer Chinook salmon, in the Tucannon River. Part Two explored salmon and steelhead extinction threshold...

idahocapitalsun.com

My biggest refute is to this claim in his "last thoughts"

Yet strong public and political awareness of the fishes’ dire condition is not optional if the lower Snake River is to be restored, so that Snake salmon and steelhead get their shot to restore themselves. Results on the Klamath, Elwha, White Salmon and other rivers strongly suggest that when salmon get that chance, they grab it.

There is actually very little evidence of increased populations in the White Salmon River post-dam removal. And, of course, those declines are attributed to poor ocean conditions.

I always ask to see the math on these topics. When populations are knocked down to virtually nothing, a 100% improvement is “significant” yet culturally disappointing. An example would be a mathematical improvement from 100 fish to a 1000 fish is huge mathematically but trivial compared to the 1980 runs of 15000. It’s the same reason we object to the states doing 10 year averages for management objectives rather than looking at 40 year averages back when the fishing was good.

 

[Irrelevant]

I always ask to see the math on these topics. When populations are knocked down to virtually nothing, a 100% improvement is “significant” yet culturally disappointing. An example would be a mathematical improvement from 100 fish to a 1000 fish is huge mathematically but trivial compared to the 1980 runs of 15000. It’s the same reason we object to the states doing 10 year averages for management objectives rather than looking at 40 year averages back when the fishing was good.

As much as I would love to think removing the Snake River dams is akin to waving a magic wand and we'll see a huge resurgence in salmon population in central ID I just don't think that's the case. The water is shockingly hot in the Salmon, both main and Middle Fork. I think some elaborate system to get around Dwarshak would provide more significant improvements, but that's going to be incredibly costly.

There is clearly some anthropogenic cause, I just don't think we've identified it yet.

 

[SAJ-99]

There is clearly some anthropogenic cause, I just don't think we've identified it yet.

Heat?

 

[Irrelevant]

Heat?

Maybe. Certainly is playing into some runs.
Hard to show that as being a likely culprit in every run currently in decline.
I think there is a deliberate attempt to push the Bering Sea surface temps as the cause for the MASSIVE decline in chinook in the Yukon River. Likely because it absolves the regulators of any culpability.

Shedding New Light on Yukon River Chinook Salmon Declines

NOAA scientists pinpoint increased juvenile-to-adult mortality connected to recent heatwaves as a major factor in recent Chinook salmon declines on the Yukon River.

www.fisheries.noaa.gov

But I find that pretty hard to believe given the long term temp data (that they failed to include in the linked article).

The early 2000's look hotter, significantly.