Waiting on Washington

[marshman]

Anyone else out there waiting on Washington permits? Friday the 14th is the day, and I'm feeling lucky this year, 18 points in the Bull elk category. If successful i will be hunting bulls just North of Mount Rainier Nation Park.

 

[Irrelevant]

Some are already up. I got a big ole goose egg

 

[wheels]

its out cashed in my disabled points 371 bull elk cant wait

 

[fishing4sanity]

Do they really issue permits? After all these years I've come to view it as just a charitable contribution.

 

[375H&H]

Are moose out yet?

 

[wheels]

all as far as i know

 

[375H&H]

Average points of the successful applicant for the moose tag my dad applied for: 12
Number of points my dad has: 21

 

[marshman]

Some are already up. I got a big ole goose egg

Nada for me also, 19 points isn't quite enough yet, damnit.

 

[marshman]

Do they really issue permits? After all these years I've come to view it as just a charitable contribution.

I have hit it twice in as many years as the current system has been in place. Minimum points in any of the hunts i have drawn is 15.

 

[Irrelevant]

I can't complain too much. I've only got 12 in my max categories. In previous years I've drawn two tags with less than the average point pool.

 

[Irrelevant]

Average points of the successful applicant for the moose tag my dad applied for: 12
Number of points my dad has: 21

Did you calc is odds?

 

[375H&H]

Did you calc is odds?

No we didn’t, we just figured his odds were pretty good. Silly us.

 

[Irrelevant]

No we didn’t, we just figured his odds were pretty good. Silly us.

Based on the two hunts I put in for for moose, he would have only had a 0.5% and 2.8% chance.

 

[375H&H]

Based on the two hunts I put in for for moose, he would have only had a 0.5% and 2.8% chance.

My dad is currently putting in for cow hunts as he got his bull already (after 31 years). But how is the average winner so far below him and yet he doesn’t draw or has odds as low as you describe? He is even well above the average for the bull tag too.

Stupid question, it’s WDFW so the answer won’t make sense.

 

[El Jason]

But how is the average winner so far below him and yet he doesn’t draw or has odds as low as you describe?

Because it's a bonus point system, so there is still some randomness built in. It doesn't mean if you have the average number of points you'll draw. The average number of points is just an indicator of whether you are more or less likely to draw. The odds are low because the permits do not have the supply to keep up with points. As such, there are a LOT of people with a lot of points. That dilutes the applicant pool dramatically. Top it all off with the fact every Tom, Dick, and Harry can apply in every category and it's not too hard to see the inherent fallacies that "x" points will get you a tag.

 

[375H&H]

Because it's a bonus point system, so there is still some randomness built in. It doesn't mean if you have the average number of points you'll draw. The average number of points is just an indicator of whether you are more or less likely to draw. The odds are low because the permits do not have the supply to keep up with points. As such, there are a LOT of people with a lot of points. That dilutes the applicant pool dramatically. Top it all off with the fact every Tom, Dick, and Harry can apply in every category and it's not too hard to see the inherent fallacies that "x" points will get you a tag.

Yes I get all of that and understand that bonus points are not preference points.

I was more just griping about how the Washington system is so jacked, which is also inherently not hard to see.

 

[El Jason]

Yes I get all of that and understand that bonus points are not preference points.

I was more just griping about how the Washington system is so jacked, which is also inherently not hard to see.

No argument there.

It makes a lot of $en$e to some, very little to others.

 

[Irrelevant]

I'm getting out of most categories in WA as soon as (or if) I draw them

 

[LopeHunter]

WA square points, correct? So 12 points vs 20 points is really 144 vs 400. 20 point applicant has 2.8x the odds to draw as 12 point applicant. Now, if 50 applicants have 12 points and only 5 applicants have 20 points then odds are 3.6x the next tag drawn goes to a 12 pointer rather than a 20 pointer. 7200 vs 2000.

 

[marshman]

I'm getting out of most categories in WA as soon as (or if) I draw them

It is good to have a alternative plan if you live in WA. Mine alternative this year is Idaho.