Utah Elk Draw

AStaff

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Listened to the Podcast for Utah & Nevada Elk for 2020 and I'm kinda stuck in No Mans Land! I have 8 points for elk, what units would you put in for to have a good chance in the next 3 years?
 
8 points is nothing in Utah. There are no units with decent access that you have a good chance to draw in the next 3 years (or next 10 for that matter.) Put in for the tag you want and hope to get lucky. The draw odds for Utah are readily accessible. Only you can decide what's best for you.
 
Are you resident or Non Resident here in Utah. I may be able to help. 8 May be a bit low, but depending on what weapon you chose there are a few options.
 
You don't have a good chance. You have a very small chance so look at what unit has the very best odds and hope for the best. Also consider doing a bow hunt to up your odds
 
8 will not get you much, if anything in Utah, unless you get a random draw tag. If you have 8 in NV, I would save them for a decent unit in the next 20 years and keep applying because after the wait period and rebuilding points, NV is pretty much once in a lifetime.
 
I'm with Fin and Cory Jacobsen.

There ain't an elk unit in Utah worth putting in for. In fact, there isn't any species in Utah worth putting in for.

The roads suck, the women are ugly, only food is made of Jello. Can't drink beer.

Of course you can buy one license every 2 years, for a third of what idaho, Arizona, Nevada charge. Your guaranteed 10%of the tags, unlike the other states. You can freely hunt wilderness here. We have actual bonus points so you have a chance unlike pref point states. We don't charge entire tag up front and sit on your money. You can rifle hunt elk in the rut.

As Idaho and Wyoming become hostile to NR and Arizona cut tags up to 50%, I felt Fin was a little harsh on Utah in comparison.
It's unfair to compare the odds of drawing the Bolder or San Juan, where they kill 400"bulls yearly, to some random unit in Idaho or Montana. Or the odds of drawing the Pauns or Henries, to pretty much any unit not in northwest Colorado.

Did I mention the roads suck?
 
I should have added more information in the original question. I'm 59 in well above average health and shape. I hunt in Idaho or Colorado OTC every year all (DIY). I have killed bulls in Colorado, Idaho (DIY) and Arizona (380), always have high expectations but am realistic about how difficult it can be. Trying to figure out the best quality unit for the points I have is somewhat difficult when you live in Kansas and can't just drive out every other weekend. Appreciate the responses!
 
I'm with Fin and Cory Jacobsen.

There ain't an elk unit in Utah worth putting in for. In fact, there isn't any species in Utah worth putting in for.

The roads suck, the women are ugly, only food is made of Jello. Can't drink beer.

Of course you can buy one license every 2 years, for a third of what idaho, Arizona, Nevada charge. Your guaranteed 10%of the tags, unlike the other states. You can freely hunt wilderness here. We have actual bonus points so you have a chance unlike pref point states. We don't charge entire tag up front and sit on your money. You can rifle hunt elk in the rut.

As Idaho and Wyoming become hostile to NR and Arizona cut tags up to 50%, I felt Fin was a little harsh on Utah in comparison.
It's unfair to compare the odds of drawing the Bolder or San Juan, where they kill 400"bulls yearly, to some random unit in Idaho or Montana. Or the odds of drawing the Pauns or Henries, to pretty much any unit not in northwest Colorado.

Did I mention the roads suck?

Fin wasn’t harsh on Utah. He was accurate in showing that due to the draw odds and the wait periods UT is essentially OIL for a NR, and that the units that would interest someone as a once in a lifetime hunt have enough point creep that someone without a stack of points today may never draw.

I like UT’s price. As much as I dislike the preference round, it is better than squaring points. Have preference and bonus is just AZ for a NR. Moving the odd numbered tags to the preference round this year really ticks me off. It cut the NR random odds in half for a lot of elk hunts.

The OP has killed a 380” bull in AZ and someone recommended the Cache units...

I’d apply for the Cache every third year if there wasn’t five year waiting period.
 
Non-resident archery hunt
I am sorry, I am less confident in the non-resident odds. I would recommend looking at the Manti - LaSal tags. They are fairly easy for a resident to draw for archery. Again not sure about non-resident.
 
I thought Fins response on Utah was also pretty harsh. Utah is in fact now the cheapest state to apply in the west. That is a fact. I get the odds are very low and understand what he was trying to say, but it is still the cheapest to apply anywhere in the west. So in my opinion u have to throw it in the app bucket
 
Utah is cheap, but the odds suck. If you are applying for any other species in Utah then you might as well throw in for elk for the extra $10. You don't have a ton of options but there are a couple at least. The Wasatch is probably your best option at this point, and you are 6-10 years away from really opening up any other good options unless you get lucky in the random.
 
What are you comparing?

Utah's mid tier units?

Also. How are Idahos no point odds any better than Utah?

What are the odds differences in the Pauns vs Kaibab?

I get OTC Utah vs OTC Colorado for elk.

My odds of drawing the Henries are better than 40 in Idaho.

Look. I'm fine with less guys in "my spot",
and 3 years ago I might have agreed, but this year, as we've seen Idaho and Arizona crack down on NR, and Wyoming demanding your first born, I think the Utah long shot theory is incorrect. Especially with a $1000 budget like they talked about.

With $1000 you can apply in Utah for about a decade, and with 10 points those mid tier archery units are as good or better than most of the surrounding states.

Figure between NM and WY your sitting on $2k up front. 10 years in AZ, you donated $1600+, similar in Nevada, Idaho., and didn't sniff a tag.

Utah might not be first choice, but I think based on $$invested vs odds, it's not as bad as Cory and Randy portrayed.

But. I'm fine if you want to avoid it.
 
What are you comparing?

Utah's mid tier units?

Also. How are Idahos no point odds any better than Utah?

What are the odds differences in the Pauns vs Kaibab?

I get OTC Utah vs OTC Colorado for elk.

My odds of drawing the Henries are better than 40 in Idaho.

Look. I'm fine with less guys in "my spot",
and 3 years ago I might have agreed, but this year, as we've seen Idaho and Arizona crack down on NR, and Wyoming demanding your first born, I think the Utah long shot theory is incorrect. Especially with a $1000 budget like they talked about.

With $1000 you can apply in Utah for about a decade, and with 10 points those mid tier archery units are as good or better than most of the surrounding states.

Figure between NM and WY your sitting on $2k up front. 10 years in AZ, you donated $1600+, similar in Nevada, Idaho., and didn't sniff a tag.

Utah might not be first choice, but I think based on $$invested vs odds, it's not as bad as Cory and Randy portrayed.

But. I'm fine if you want to avoid it.

Since it's a slow day I'll answer most of these questions.

We can compare Utah Non Resident odds to pretty much any state and they are awful. I'll use Idaho since it's the one you bring up.

Mid tier units like the Manti/Nebo/Fishlake have terrible odds. 10 points gets you up into the 3-5% range.

Idaho's no points are better than utah without a question. We can simply look at the draw odds and figure that out. The Beaver unit with 0 points for archery is .04% and with 10 points it is .15%. 54 is Idaho's best unit-.79% odds (still awful, but better than the Beaver even after 10 points). Muzzy tag in 54 is 1.2%

Your odds as a RESIDENT are better drawing the Henries than as a NonResident drawing Idaho unit 40? Lets compare apples to apples. Idaho unit 40 odds for rifle deer as a Non resident-2.3%. Henries rifle for Non Res with 0 points-.01% with 24 points-.07%

Idaho didn't crack down on Non Residents. They raised the prices to a level comparable to the other states around and put some caps on Non resident quotas.

With $1000 you can APPLY for Utah for and potentially draw the Wasatch or the Cache once and hopefully shoot a nice bull on your one hunt. You could hunt Idaho/Colorado/Montana and be into it roughly 1k each time, learn an area and shoot a bull just as big as the one you Might hunt in Utah if you draw.

You aren't sitting on 2k upfront in New Mexico. It's roughly $850 to apply in New Mexico and if you don't draw you get all but roughly $80 back. Wyoming is expensive for an elk tag though.

Utah is cheap no doubt and I apply there myself, but if I was only chasing an elk tag I wouldn't put in. When you apply for every species it's a cheap lottery ticket and maybe a guy will get lucky.
 
What are you comparing?

Utah's mid tier units?

Also. How are Idahos no point odds any better than Utah?

What are the odds differences in the Pauns vs Kaibab?

I get OTC Utah vs OTC Colorado for elk.

My odds of drawing the Henries are better than 40 in Idaho.

Look. I'm fine with less guys in "my spot",
and 3 years ago I might have agreed, but this year, as we've seen Idaho and Arizona crack down on NR, and Wyoming demanding your first born, I think the Utah long shot theory is incorrect. Especially with a $1000 budget like they talked about.

With $1000 you can apply in Utah for about a decade, and with 10 points those mid tier archery units are as good or better than most of the surrounding states.

Figure between NM and WY your sitting on $2k up front. 10 years in AZ, you donated $1600+, similar in Nevada, Idaho., and didn't sniff a tag.

Utah might not be first choice, but I think based on $$invested vs odds, it's not as bad as Cory and Randy portrayed.

But. I'm fine if you want to avoid it.

The very first page of UT draw stats shows that there are 65 NR applicants per tag. That means it would take 65yrs to get each current applicant one hunt in the best case. Because there are some hunts that aren’t worth the trip and the five year waiting period, most of the hunts that are desirable to a NR have even worse odds than the 65yr average would be.

In contrast, there are 12.1 NR applicants per tag in NM. With no wait period and no loss of points, one can put the lowest end hunt that he would be willing to travel to as a third choice, and thus the 12.1yr average is actually representative for a lot of NR’s. Unfortunately, it wasn’t all that long ago that it was more like a 5-6yr average.

Further, in UT you either decide to shoot for the moon, or take a lesser hunt and give your point. In NM you can do both, and your odds for a great tag do not get reduced because you drew the lame tag last year.
 
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