Ukraine / Russia

[VikingsGuy]

The Beginning Of The End Of Globalization | OilPrice.com

Russia’s decoupling from the global economy following its invasion of Ukraine could lead to governments and companies rethinking their global trade strategies

oilprice.com

I have no crystal ball, but I struggle to believe that American consumers are ready to pay 25-50% more for everything they buy over the long term, accept the start-up of major mining operations and rare earth metal processing facilities in the lower-48, and that in the mid-term they accept continued disruptions in chip supplies for phones, computers, cars, TVs, etc. as we reorder a global economy.

If we could go back to 1990, we really should have focused on building up and industrializing Mexico and Chile and continued to hold firm against developing communist china. But is hard to see us being able to unwind this 30 yr pivot without reliving the 1930s/40s.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Economic pressure having an impact.

China's Sinopec Bows Out Of Russian Petchem, Gas Projects | OilPrice.com

China's state-run oil refiner, Sinopec, has paused discussions with Russia about a petrochemical investment and a deal to market Russian gas in China

oilprice.com

If we were to have a war in Europe (which I hope we avoid), I wonder if it is more likely that China swoops in and seizes Siberia from a weakened Russia to meet its O&G and metals needs than that it would decide to go to war with the west in support of Russia. Seems like they would solve alot of their own problems that way and still maintain access to US & EU markets that drive their economy in a way Russia never could.

 

[BigHornRam]

Big money managers flexing their muscles, to show the tinhorn dictators who really runs the show.

China sees ‘unprecedented’ capital outflows after Russia invades Ukraine

Investors have pulled money out of China on a huge scale since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, even as flows to other emerging markets held up, the Institute of International Finance says.

www.scmp.com

 

[BigHornRam]

If we were to have a war in Europe (which I hope we avoid), I wonder if it is more likely that China swoops in and seizes Siberia from a weakened Russia to meet its O&G and metals needs than that it would decide to go to war with the west in support of Russia. Seems like they would solve alot of their own problems that way and still maintain access to US & EU markets that drive their economy in a way Russia never could.

Earlier in this thread, I said Russia could end up being called NW China territories in a couple years depending on how this all plays out. I think China/Xi baited Russia /Putin into this from the beginning by stroking Putin's ego. A weak Russia that could be manipulated would be a plus for China.
Your checkers game is improving!

 

[VikingsGuy]

Earlier in this thread, I said Russia could end up being called NW China territories in a couple years depending on how this all plays out. I think China/Xi baited Russia /Putin into this from the beginning by stroking Putin's ego. A weak Russia that could be manipulated would be a plus for China.
Your checkers game is improving!

And earlier I said Russia is cementing it’s place as China’s Cuba. Russia just can’t compete economically with the US, China or the EU - they will fall one way or the other - it’s just that their nukes make their crumbling an existential danger to everyone.

 

[Panda Bear]

If we were to have a war in Europe (which I hope we avoid), I wonder if it is more likely that China swoops in and seizes Siberia from a weakened Russia to meet its O&G and metals needs than that it would decide to go to war with the west in support of Russia. Seems like they would solve alot of their own problems that way and still maintain access to US & EU markets that drive their economy in a way Russia never could.

makes sense. Also, I noticed that Finland as of, I think, today has cancelled all train service (passenger and cargo ) into Russia and Ukraine.

And, question for anyone--would NATO do more for Finland, than they are for Ukraine, if Russia did attack them ? I dont see that happening, but was interested in your opinions.

 

[BigHornRam]

I have no crystal ball, but I struggle to believe that American consumers are ready to pay 25-50% more for everything they buy over the long term, accept the start-up of major mining operations and rare earth metal processing facilities in the lower-48, and that in the mid-term they accept continued disruptions in chip supplies for phones, computers, cars, TVs, etc. as we reorder a global economy.

Some super smart dudes have already told you the plan.

 

[Nick87]

"President Biden on Saturday said that Russian President Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power," as he declared the Russian invasion of Ukraine a "strategic failure" while pledging continued support for the embattled Ukrainian people."

Well, that should certainly help. Nothing like threatening a nuclear-armed sociopath with regime change. I know the WH walked it back, but that's twice in the last week he has made huge misspeaks. Along with Graham and Cotton, he needs to cool the rhetoric. At least Joe can blame senility; the others have no excuse.

Oh the irony.

 

[noharleyyet]

Putin knows President Biden is cognitively challenged but will use his “off the cuff” words as verbal leverage for tacit threats.

 

[Nick87]

Putin knows President Biden is cognitively challenged but will use his “off the cuff” words as verbal leverage for tacit threats.

Yup, there'll be no taking that one back.

 

[BigHornRam]

Yup, there'll be no taking that one back.

Not as diplomatic or effective as "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall"? History will judge.

 

[VikingsGuy]

makes sense. Also, I noticed that Finland as of, I think, today has cancelled all train service (passenger and cargo ) into Russia and Ukraine.

And, question for anyone--would NATO do more for Finland, than they are for Ukraine, if Russia did attack them ? I dont see that happening, but was interested in your opinions.

I have no doubt NATO would go to war for Finland. In that scenario, Ukraine would be “Czechoslovakia” and Finland would play the role of “Poland” in our recreation of the late 1930s. How fun.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Not as diplomatic or effective as "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall"? History will judge.

How about, “we begin bombing in 5 minutes”? Dancing with nuclear holocaust was so much fun back in the day.

 

[noharleyyet]

 

[VikingsGuy]

Putin knows President Biden is cognitively challenged but will use his “off the cuff” words as verbal leverage for tacit threats.

Opinion | The President Should Avoid Public Speaking

...at least when the topic is important.

www.wsj.com

 

[shoots-straight]

Oh the irony.

In all fairness to those at the Whitehouse really running the show. Their hands where apparently not up his ass far enough to control his mouth.

Walking back comments

Don't get me wrong. As far as I'm concerned we are better off with Biden vs Trump. (Not much) but still better. Sad it's come to this.

I know the answer, but would really love some of our best and brightest getting involved at this level. Money is the "Root of all evil" for sure.

 

[Nick87]

In all fairness to those at the Whitehouse really running the show. Their hands where apparently not up his ass far enough to control his mouth.

Walking back comments

Don't get me wrong. As far as I'm concerned we are better off with Biden vs Trump. (Not much) but still better. Sad it's come to this.

I know the answer, but would really love some of our best and brightest getting involved at this level. Money is the "Root of all evil" for sure.

Let me know how that works out.

 

[EKYHunter]

In all fairness to those at the Whitehouse really running the show. Their hands where apparently not up his ass far enough to control his mouth.

Walking back comments

Don't get me wrong. As far as I'm concerned we are better off with Biden vs Trump. (Not much) but still better. Sad it's come to this.

I know the answer, but would really love some of our best and brightest getting involved at this level. Money is the "Root of all evil" for sure.

I think I Timothy 6:10 actually states “For the love of money is the root of all evil...” Just clarifying.

 

[longbow51]

Most translations say "all kinds" or "all sorts" of evil. Certainly in the Old Testament libido played more than a small role in idol worship.

 

[longbow51]

And I'm not so sure about NATO. Close relative worked there (Netherlands), and, except for the Brits, they freely admitted their countries did not pay much into NATO, but relied on the US (that was pre-Trump). That included Germany, which had a much stronger economy than we did at the time. Looks like now they may finally be investing.