Ukraine / Russia

I have read a couple of these threads on a couple of different forums, my question is how does a middle aged man living in Podunk USA have a clue how Putin thinks or what thought process he might have?

Most can't figure out what goes through their wife's mind. See the HT thread.
 
tjones said:
I have read a couple of these threads on a couple of different forums, my question is how does a middle aged man living in Podunk USA have a clue how Putin thinks or what thought process he might have?

Most can't figure out what goes through their wife's mind. See the HT thread.
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Easy: MSNBC, CNN, FOX. All objective media outlets. ;)

Post #1,186
 
Handlebar said:
I would very much like to hear your thoughts
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Some examples:

1. Russia has committed the entirety of the ground force it put together and has yet to seize any of its key objectives.
2. As early as 3-4 days after the invasion started, Russia was forced to employ units as frontline forces that its doctrine indicates should be well behind the front lines normally used to enforce law and order.
3. Russia failed to prioritize its efforts and mass its combat power against key objectives.
4. If the plan was to make initial contact and then reorient against soft spots, Russia would have had to have significant logistical support sitting just across the border prepared to resupply rapidly to insure units could seize initiative.
5. Russia only had 3-5 days worth of precision guided munitions available for the entire offensive.
6. Russia is now moving additional units from Eastern Russia to the conflict area.
7. Russia is attempting to compel Belarus and Syria to form "shock battalions" to employ in Ukraine.
8. Russia is slowly backing off its demands during negotiations.
9. The Chief of Staff of the Belarusian Army High Command submitted his resignation, not wanting to be involved with Russia's war.
10. When the Russian Army is frustrated, it conducts punitive strikes against civilians and cities.
11. Russian analysts were instructed to do analysis of this fight, under the guise of a wargame, and were told that analysis favorable to Russian success was encouraged.

These are just off the top of my head.
 
A couple more I forgot.

12. Russia has attempted multiple "Hail Mary" like tactical plans that have predictably ended in disaster; which would indicate a failure in their base plan, or else complete amateur hour planning.
13. The Russians have not been able to completely shut down Ukrainian internet and Cell networks because they do not have effective military communications infrastructure and are relying on the civilian network.

You have to remember that the Russians have not attempted a coordinated military campaign of this complexity since their thrust into Berlin in WW2. They have only done exercises for the last 80-years, and how do you think the results of an exercise conducted under an autocratic ego-maniac are painted...
 
@406dn , A much better person to ask your specific question. ;) If you ask, then ask me specifically again - I've no problem sharing my opinion. We've all shared our opinions in this thread. Including yourself.
 
MinnesotaHunter said:
A couple more I forgot.

12. Russia has attempted multiple "Hail Mary" like tactical plans that have predictably ended in disaster; which would indicate a failure in their base plan, or else complete amateur hour planning.
13. The Russians have not been able to completely shut down Ukrainian internet and Cell networks because they do not have effective military communications infrastructure and are relying on the civilian network.

You have to remember that the Russians have not attempted a coordinated military campaign of this complexity since their thrust into Berlin in WW2. They have only done exercises for the last 80-years, and how do you think the results of an exercise conducted under an autocratic ego-maniac are painted...
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Thank you
What you describe indicates that none of this was well thought out, spur of the moment decision ? Something pushed Putin to the edge?
 
Handlebar said:
Thank you
What you describe indicates that none of this was well thought out, spur of the moment decision ? Something pushed Putin to the edge?
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I don't think it was a spur of the moment decision at all. I think it is clearly a situation where Russia wasn't honest with itself about it capabilities or had significant hubris about the capabilities of its force, and they significantly underestimated the determination of the Ukraine.

Based on my understanding and learning about him, I think Putin has been dreaming about this since the fall of the Berlin Wall. We think the Cold War ended when the Soviet Union collapsed, but I think there are those who just felt like it entered a new stage.

Kremlin's Evolution.JPG
 
Greenhorn said:
@MinnesotaHunter - what do you think the likelihood is of there being a desperate measure of him launching a big missile?
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BLUF: unless the stance of the west changes regarding military intervention or really crippling the Russian economy, probably low.

That said Russian doctrine would indicate they would do something called a demonstration shot first, which would be a tactical nuke fired into the Black Sea or some other uninhabited area to show they are serious. I think if NATO or the US instituted a no-fly zone over the Ukraine we would push Russia much closer to this.

I believe Putin feels like he is backed into a corner and doesn't see a clear path out. There is a Cold War concept that says you need to "escalate, to deescalate", basically playing chicken. Unfortunately, I feel like Putin feels like this is his only option.
 
The real problem I see with this war is that there's no clear exit strategy for things to return to "normal" in eastern Europe or the EU. If Putin and his henchmen lose, or even if this just drags on, he's not going to be happy. The implications of that are a big concern in the back of my mind. This is still why I think he has to go, hopefully in a way that doesn't make him a martyr to whatever living followers he still has. The longer this continues, the more desperate he becomes.

Alternatively, if Putin sees some sort of success in Ukraine, then what? I don't think he'll stop there. I don't see how that was his end game going into this.

Not to mention China
 
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