Texas moves to a cubed loyalty point system

[bts09]

All,

So for this year, for the first time, the preference points in Texas (called "loyalty points") will be cubed for applicants. Until this year, they were just extra shots at a draw--so if you had two loyalty points, and you applied, your name would go into the hat three times for that drawing. Now, if you have two points, your name goes in 8 times (2x2x2).

(It's also very easy to accumulate these--if you don't get drawn, you get one automatically, with no further action required on your part.)

Frequently Asked Questions - Drawn Hunts - TPWD

tpwd.texas.gov

I'm very interested in thoughts on this. There's somewhat of an information gap--Texas does not publish lists of how many points are outstanding, or how many points there are at each level, but given the relatively low number of controlled hunt opportunities in Texas, my strong suspicion is that there are some people with 30 or more loyalty points for some categories.

I believe I read somewhere on here that Maine does the cubed points thing, and I have yet to see someone support that system, but maybe there are advantages to it. Looking for the collective wisdom here.

 

[Oak]

Where's Zim.....

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

I'm hoping that in 2038, when I have 25 mt sheep points we will move to tesseract¹ bonus points.



1. This is not a real mathematical term for x^4... but it sounds dope!

 

[MTLabrador]

I'm hoping that in 2038, when I have 25 mt sheep points we will move to tesseract¹ bonus points.



1. This is not a real mathematical term for x^4... but it sounds dope!

Of course 25 points won’t get us damn millennials any closer to actually drawing a tag...

 

[rmyoung1]

So cubed points essentially turns the draw into a de facto preference point system. And in a state where there are 4,000+ applicants for the ONE desert sheep tag. And 500 applicants for each pronghorn tag. I think we’ve found the answer for the first-state-to-implode question. If they actually publish their applicant data, anyone without max points should bail.

 

[thomas89]

Perhaps my public school education is failing me, But if they cube everyone’s points, would everyone not have the same amount of points...just cubed?

Sounds like someone needed an attaboy. Or in the military we’d say someone needed a bullet for an OPR. Or the good idea fairy. Take your pick....then cube it.

 

[rmyoung1]

Perhaps my public school education is failing me, But if they cube everyone’s points, would everyone not have the same amount of points...just cubed?

It’s failing you . Take this example:
The guy with 30 loyalty points gets 30^3 chances, plus one for his current app. That’s 27,001 “names in the hat.” The dude with 2 points gets 2^3+1=9 total chances. So... instead of having only 28 additional chances, the guy with 30 loyalty points now has 26,992 more than his fellow hunter at the 2-point level. It gets a little tough convincing that new guy to participate. Yikes!

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Perhaps my public school education is failing me, But if they cube everyone’s points, would everyone not have the same amount of points...just cubed?

Sounds like someone needed an attaboy. Or in the military we’d say someone needed a bullet for an OPR. Or the good idea fairy. Take your pick....then cube it.

Reg bonus points
You have 2 points and I have 20 points.

There are 78 other applicants for 1 tag, everyone else has 1 pt but us.

I have a 20% chance
You have a 2% chance.

Squared

You have now have 4 chances and I have 400
I have an 80% chance of drawing.
You have a .8% chance of drawing.

 

[seeth07]

basically the decision by Texas to do this came from a lot of upset people with 25 points. The move is to temporarily satisfy that high loyalty group.

If the amount of tags they were giving out wasn't the monsterous low percentage of applicants, this move would make sense. It would in the short term finally ensure and reward those with max points by ensuring they get their tag finally and then after a few years of no one else practically drawing a tag but the max point holders, the "max point" total each year actually decreases each year as those people disappear from the pool. In this case though, that won't happen.

 

[Bambistew]

Reg bonus points
You have 2 points and I have 20 points.

There are 78 other applicants for 1 tag, everyone else has 1 pt but us.

I have a 20% chance
You have a 2% chance.

Squared

You have now have 4 chances and I have 400
I have an 80% chance of drawing.
You have a .8% chance of drawing.

Now run it so that 50 of those applicants also have 20 points.

 

[bts09]

Anyone have a contact at Texas Parks and Wildlife that I could reach out to re: actually getting the points data published? Texas has never published it, but it's starting to sound like they should. Especially if every category has people holding 20+ points, which I'm sure it does.

 

[Bambistew]

Super excited, just printed off my sheep, moose and caribou tags. No points needed, no dreaming, no diet and exercise program... just a piece of paper and a lot of fun to be had this fall.

 

[bts09]

In this case though, that won't happen.

Are you saying that because of the supply/demand issue? As in, they only award a couple tags each year, so they're never going to work through the backlog of massive points holders?

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Now run it so that 50 of those applicants also have 20 points.

 

[thomas89]

It’s failing you . Take this example:
The guy with 30 loyalty points gets 30^3 chances, plus one for his current app. That’s 27,001 “names in the hat.” The dude with 2 points gets 2^3+1=9 total chances. So... instead of having only 28 additional chances, the guy with 30 loyalty points now has 26,992 more than his fellow hunter at the 2-point level. It gets a little tough convincing that new guy to participate. Yikes!

Failed me hard. Thanks!

I guess it still doesn’t make sense that your applicant “group” or true competition in a draw, also has theirs cubed. Makes sense that they cube everyone, but doesn’t make sense that if you simplify it it’s still the same odds in your group. I don’t look at my 5 moose points and think damn I got a shot at that 30 point unit.

 

[bts09]

So cubed points essentially turns the draw into a de facto preference point system. And in a state where there are 4,000+ applicants for the ONE desert sheep tag. And 500 applicants for each pronghorn tag. I think we’ve found the answer for the first-state-to-implode question. If they actually publish their applicant data, anyone without max points should bail.

It's $3 to apply each year. This is one of my many issue with the system. Most people are going to look at that and say, well, my chances are now about the same as the powerball, and that costs $2, so why not...

 

[rmyoung1]

It's $3 to apply each year. This is one of my many issue with the system. Most people are going to look at that and say, well, my chances are now about the same as the powerball, and that costs $2, so why not...

In my view, that’s the only thing that keeps it afloat. If it was $150 for a point, like it is in other states, who besides a max or close-to-max point holder would apply? The fact that it’s pocket change might keep those powerball optimists in the game.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Failed me hard. Thanks!

I guess it still doesn’t make sense that your applicant “group” or true competition in a draw, also has theirs cubed. Makes sense that they cube everyone, but doesn’t make sense that if you simplify it it’s still the same odds in your group. I don’t look at my 5 moose points and think damn I got a shot at that 30 point unit.

Which is the problem with preference points.

Say there is a unit that gives out 10 tags a year. In the top point pool there are 400 people 30pts, if you didn't get in at year one you will never have a chance at tag in your life. Assuming that all top point holders got points at age 12, they are all 42, so the last person in that point pool will be 82 when they are drawn. Anyone who has 29 points is SOL not to mention 5pts.

The more you try to give any specific group of people a better advantage in a system stronger the chances that system will implode.

 

[rmyoung1]

basically the decision by Texas to do this came from a lot of upset people with 25 points. The move is to temporarily satisfy that high loyalty group.

I can’t believe those folks are that bad at math. How many can you actually “satisfy” when you’re giving out only a single sheep tag per year or only a dozen pronghorn tags? Gonna still be a lot of dudes with max points holding nothing but max points. But, yeah, let’s create a total disincentive for new people to engage and contribute.

 

[thomas89]

Which is the problem with preference points.

Say there is a unit that gives out 10 tags a year. In the top point pool there are 400 people 30pts, if you didn't get in at year one you will never have a chance at tag in your life. Assuming that all top point holders got points at age 12, they are all 42, so the last person in that point pool will be 82 when they are drawn. Anyone who has 29 points is SOL.

I agree it’s a screwed up system....I just don’t see this as a fix.