Statistics!

[teej89]

Alright math gurus.... I love math but SUCK at stats, I can't wrap my head around it.

Here's a question, asking for a friend, if you have 50 winning tickets and 100 people, what are the odds for the following:

If 2 tickets are bought:

- odds one wins - 75%?
- odds two win

If 3 tickets are bought:

- odds one wins
- odds two wins
- odds all three win

Also, please provide explanation and formulas please!

 

[Deleted member 38069]

What's the prize?

 

[teej89]

What's the prize?

 

[Deleted member 38069]

You'd better buy all 50 then!

 

[Deleted member 38069]

 

[Trial153]

going to need more data. Are the winning tickets re pooled back into the draw? Meaning for each 50 draws are all 100 tickets are present or is the ticket taken out of the draw.

 

[teej89]

going to need more data. Are the winning tickets re pooled back into the draw? Meaning for each 50 draws are all 100 tickets are present or is the ticket taken out of the draw.

Sorry meant to include that, winning tickets are taken out and not reincluded

 

[NEWHunter]

Just remember, 72% of statistics are made up on the spot. Good luck.

 

[jtm307]

You didn’t say how many total tickets there are.

 

[teej89]

You didn’t say how many total tickets there are.

Whoops, 100 total tickets, 50 are winners.

 

[Deleted member 16014]

Everyone should have a favorite statistics song. This is mine.

 

[Deleted member 20812]

It all depends.

What caliber are you shooting?

Does it have a 22 or a 28.5” barrel?

Do you ride an e-bike?

What would you choose to shoot an intruder with?

Can you name the REAL reason hunting is a dinosaur?

Do you belong to SFW?

Do you think Land Tawney is the anti-Christ?

How do you feel about selling MSG points?

 

[VikingsGuy]

If we assume you meant 50 winning tickets out of 100 total tickets - which may not be what you meant but I am using the numbers we have at that moment:

If you then randomly receive 2 tickets you have the following odds:

24.75% chance of having 2 winning tickets
50.5% chance of having only 1 winning ticket
24.75% chance of having 0 winning tickets
In the aggregate you have a 75.25% chance of getting at least 1 winning ticket

When you pull your first winning ticket you have 50/100 odds of getting a winner, but when you pull your second ticket you have either 49/99 or 50/99 chance of pulling a winner with the second draw depending on the status of your first ticket (did it deplete winning tickets by one or losing tickets by one?).

There are four outcomes. WW, WL, LW, LL.

The odds of WW are .5 x 49/99 = .2475 (24.75%)
The odds of LL are .5 x 49/99 = .2475 (24.75%)
The odds of WL are .5 x 50/99 = .2525 (25.25%)
The odds of LW are .5 x 50/99 = .2525 (25.25%)
Because both WL and LW give you 1 winning ticket we add the odds 25.25% + 25.25% = 50.5%

The three ticket scenario would follow a similar approach but with 9 outcomes to be accounted for instead of 4

 

[teej89]

It all depends.

What caliber are you shooting? Musket

Does it have a 22 or a 28.5” barrel? It's the motion of the ocean JLS

Do you ride an e-bike? Is that like an e-collar? Then no.

What would you choose to shoot an intruder with? What does the intrude come in with?

Can you name the REAL reason hunting is a dinosaur? Because birds are dinosaurs and they're everywhere

Do you belong to SFW? No but I belong to Safeway.

Do you think Land Tawney is the anti-Christ? No but I know a lady called tawney and she's a strange one

How do you feel about selling MSG points? I love Chinese food

I hope this helps clear the mud @JLS

 

[VikingsGuy]

It all depends.

What caliber are you shooting?

Did you mean caliber or cartridge?

 

[VikingsGuy]

So, are we helping you do your kid's math homework due to social distancing?

 

[Deleted member 20812]

Did you mean caliber or cartridge?

Duh. Semantics.......

 

[JohnCushman]

If you buy a ticket and shoot everyone else that had one and take all of their tickets, then your odds are 100%

 

[Trial153]

If this an expo drawing your chances of winning once are .001% your chance of winning twice is .000% because they wont make that same mistake twice.

viking guy got right and beat me too it..

 

[VikingsGuy]

If you buy a ticket and shoot everyone else that had one and take all of their tickets, then your odds are 100%

Unless you are convicted of their murders - then you forfeit associated gains. (and don't bend over in the shower)