Relax, Everything is Going to be Okay!

[Irrelevant]

Just checking in. Have any of you suffered any I'll effects yet? I was certain we would have collapsed as a nation by now.

We had a superbloom event here that flooded some FS trailheads. FS has no staff to deal with it. The county sheriff had to post someone at one of them, every day, all day, for almost two weeks. That takes away from the county resources that protect me and my family, and adds costs to a budget that was already over budget. The County is trying to recoup those costs, but per my neighbor (County commissioner #2) the FS has no money and their only option to recoup those costs is via suit. Sound efficient? How about winning, does it sound like winning? None of that even touches on smell of shit and all the toilet paper deposited because the fed's don't have the money for a vault toilet.

One of several group I volunteer for/on is a collaboration that was working to address impacts from overuse to the Alpine Lakes Wilderness Area. The FS announced 2-weeks ago that they've dissolved the group. The only recourse for those of us that feel strongly that Congress was very clear when they said these areas should be managed in a manner that leaves them "untrammeled" by man, is a suit. More #winning. I had no idea that winning entailed management by lawsuit. Seems to me those that just love this winning used to lambast the idea of having to sue the fed's to do their job.

 

[dranrab]

I'm not a miracle-worker. I can't make the willingly blind see, so I don't really have any hope for convincing you of anything, but for anybody that is actually willing to consider evidence:

Billions of Dollars Wasted: The Navy's Littoral Combat Ship Nightmare

What You Need to Know: The U.S. Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) program is widely regarded as a mistake in hindsight due to persistent maintenance issues, cost overruns, and an unclear mission profile. Designed as versatile, multi-mission vessels for near-shore operations, the LCS was intended...

nationalinterest.org

Thanks for the example. How much of our budget would that free up?

 

[INMT]

Just checking in. Have any of you suffered any I'll effects yet? I was certain we would have collapsed as a nation by now.

I have. The agency I work for has lost several positions due to DRP, VERA, VISP, and probationary firings. And recently our understaffed IT Department was reassigned to the bureau not the agency. I can say first hand things are far less efficient where I work. What used to be a simple phone call to fix a computer issue now is days down the pipe.

The electrician took the DRP. And with the hiring freeze there is no replacement. Projects have been put on hold, contractors have been hired at a far higher rate to the American taxpayer than the park electrician would have cost.

At least where I work, anyone’s hazy vision of doge saving people money is a complete and utter farce. Live in your bubble, believe the handful of contracts they cancelled will ensure your children and grandchildren won’t inherit the debt we currently have. In my world the govt is running far less efficient and costing taxpayers more money.

 

[Forkyfinder]

Thanks for the example. How much of our budget would that free up?

Not enough. Get to increasing the ss and medicare age requirement and/or (re)move the income cap.

 

[BrentD]

So far, he has cost me about $100k, I figure. Hard to know for sure.

 

[dranrab]

So far, he has cost me about $100k, I figure. Hard to know for sure.

How so?

 

[MTGomer]

@BrentD You didn’t sell in the dip did you!?

mid week I was about back to where I was prior to the tariff silliness.

 

[Bonasababy]

Just curious - but have you looked at the balance sheet? It isnt gov employment thats killing us.

Frankly - its long history, of especially boomers, not stomaching an ounce of changes to medicare and SS. Not much besides that or mil spending will move the needle.

20 years ago boomers were telling me we shouldnt get something for free from gov, and to not believe everything we read on the internet. And here we are.

You left out the BIGGEST EVER HUGE BEAUTIFUL tax cuts impact...

 

[BrentD]

How so?

G

You left out the BIGGEST EVER HUGE BEAUTIFUL tax cuts impact...

I am not a billionaire, so those won't help me.

 

[BrentD]

How so?

Starting a new home building project before the election.

 

[Bonasababy]

@BrentD You didn’t sell in the dip did you!?

mid week I was about back to where I was prior to the tariff silliness.

Nowhere near being out of the woods. This analysis is flawed though ...question should be where would you be without all the tariff silliness?

I know in my case I would be making plans to build and buy and to travel in a looming retirement...instead no buying, no building, no travel, and retirement already put off.

We've seen many impacts of federal cuts and more to come. Habitat projects not occuring. Staff needed to help with several big wildfires ...both fighting them and helping manage people as they have lost dozens of homes and buildings and been displaced..fired or retired.

Small town hospitals barely hanging on already planning to cut back or close with Medicaid cuts looming...work that insures our PR and DJ dollars are used as intended gutted..

Not enough time to list them all...

 

[Bonasababy]

G

I am not a billionaire, so those won't help me.

Not the point...they contribute as much to the problem for all of us as failure to address SS and medicare/Medicaid does...and would be far easier to fix.

 

[Forkyfinder]

Nowhere near being out of the woods. This analysis is flawed though ...question should be where would you be without all the tariff silliness?

Thats hard to know - but id argue that the market has already priced in some tariff negotiating working out

You left out the BIGGEST EVER HUGE BEAUTIFUL tax cuts impact...

There were only growth in gov revenues post tax cuts - tax cuts dont always lead to less revenue for GOV - and much of the existing tax cuts is a continuation of tax policy thats been in place for almost 8 years (higher std deduction and lower rate).

If you were a high income earner in a high tax state, your taxes went up under those cuts because of the lack of SALT deduction for state income.

 

[MTGomer]

Starting a new home building project before the election.

Material costs?

They’re quite depressing. I don’t know how much higher a piece of wood or steel can go, but I suspect we will find out.

 

[BrentD]

Material costs?

They’re quite depressing. I don’t know how much higher a piece of wood or steel can go, but I suspect we will find out.

No material costs or actually down and stayed down. Although now I imagine they are going up because of the tariffs. What's really killed me is having to make payments on construction loans, which means selling investments at a loss.

And then the biggie is of course, having to sell our current home, which we put on the market about 5 days before the nutjob, lost his mind over tariffs and basically froze the housing market solid. We lost our ass right there. But we had to sell.

Had I known, this was coming, I would never have started the project, of course.

 

[corndog1]

Nowhere near being out of the woods. This analysis is flawed though ...question should be where would you be without all the tariff silliness?

I know in my case I would be making plans to build and buy and to travel in a looming retirement...instead no buying, no building, no travel, and retirement already put off.

We've seen many impacts of federal cuts and more to come. Habitat projects not occuring. Staff needed to help with several big wildfires ...both fighting them and helping manage people as they have lost dozens of homes and buildings and been displaced..fired or retired.

Small town hospitals barely hanging on already planning to cut back or close with Medicaid cuts looming...work that insures our PR and DJ dollars are used as intended gutted..

Not enough time to list them all...

No one knows where we would be.

 

[BuzzH]

No one knows where we would be.

Wrong.

 

[Forkyfinder]

Wrong.

No one knows where we would be.

You guys did see the market rise in early nov, right?

I, personally, cant imagine where we would be under a regime who wantes to tax unrealized capital gains. Thatd be the most detrimental policy to investing in the history of the country.

 

[WyoCoalMiner]

No material costs or actually down and stayed down. Although now I imagine they are going up because of the tariffs. What's really killed me is having to make payments on construction loans, which means selling investments at a loss.

And then the biggie is of course, having to sell our current home, which we put on the market about 5 days before the nutjob, lost his mind over tariffs and basically froze the housing market solid. We lost our ass right there. But we had to sell.

Had I known, this was coming, I would never have started the project, of course.

My wife and I have a very similar situation. We started construction about a week after Trump was elected. Material costs have been lower than the prior few years so that was good. We anticipated market disruption largely because the guy has been barking about tariffs for some time so we sold most investments intended for the build a few months early and are holding them in an interest bearing account. We listed our home about 30 days prior to liberation day. Closed 40 days later. Made bank! Two factors, 1) it’s a great house that we took great care of 2) The housing market is great in this part of the country largely because of the President’s policies on Natural Resources.
Still have a few investments that we have not sold but as @MTGomer stated they are just about back to their all time highs.
I’m not a Billionaire either but I will absolutely have a lower tax bill if his tax policy makes it through congress.
Location, some sound planning, well thought out investments, an Administration that gives a crap about my area of the country and a bit of luck has made our build an excellent experience.

 

[Bonasababy]

Thats hard to know - but id argue that the market has already priced in some tariff negotiating working out

There were only growth in gov revenues post tax cuts - tax cuts dont always lead to less revenue for GOV - and much of the existing tax cuts is a continuation of tax policy thats been in place for almost 8 years (higher std deduction and lower rate).

If you were a high income earner in a high tax state, your taxes went up under those cuts because of the lack of SALT deduction for state income.

You don't realize the complete error in that statement? Is Grover Norquist your daddy?

Before the 2018 cuts the non partisan CBO projected they would add 1.9 TRILLION dollars to the national debt in ten years. Recent work by them has said extending those cuts (Trump actually wants to increase them) will add an additional 4.2 TRILLION dollars to the national debt.

Multiple sources assign a higher amount of growth of debt to those tax cuts than government spending, in fact.

Even if you believe the overly inflated estimates of Doge cuts, the administrations claim of 170 BILLION--that of course can't all be verified--it is a tiny fraction of the increase in debt coming from tax cuts.