recession?

[rjthehunter]

Obama came into office in the middle of the banking crisis of late 08. You might remember McCain saying something the the effect the economy remains strong. Unemployment was climbing, yada, yada.

This time we are shooting ourselves in the foot, day after day.

I thought external factors didn't matter? It's solely the presidents fault.

Look at the S&P 500, I'm not seeing anything out of the ordinary. A 8% dip since mid Feb is nothing to get your shorts in a knot over. Just buy the dip.

In the last year, it's up 8.4%. Not the end of the world like some people are acting like.

 

[Threedognight]

As the old punchline goes, it would be a good start. Especially with this "copilot."

 

[BigHornRam]

 

[Bonasababy]

I thought external factors didn't matter? It's solely the presidents fault.

Look at the S&P 500, I'm not seeing anything out of the ordinary. A 8% dip since mid Feb is nothing to get your shorts in a knot over. Just buy the dip.

In the last year, it's up 8.4%. Not the end of the world like some people are acting like.

Obama did not have every economist, corporate leaders and more warning him about what his DIRECT actions are doing to the economy.

Even Rupert Murdoch's Wall Street Journal called out, saying Trump is engaging in "the dumbest trade war in history" and Trump "sounds as if the US shouldn't import anything at all, that America can be a perfectly closed economy making everything at home. This is called autarky, and isn't the world we live in, or one that we should want to live in, as Mr. Trump may soon find out".

 

[antelopedundee]

Yep, just snap you fingers and a new widget factory will be up and running within a week. Just don't count on any imported item to help support it.

 

[BigHornRam]

Its all a game of chicken. Republicans didn't consult democrats at all on the bill--despite needing democratic votes to pass it (R Rand Paul will vote against it) and there are things in it that are known poison pills.

Democrats are signaling they are going to come up with the votes to pass the CR.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5189724-senate-democrats-government-funding-shutdown/

 

[Bob-WY]

This has hit the silly point. We are arguing over a 6 to 7 month CR, vs a couple shorter ones? Dumb. This one reduces spending overall, and allows both sides time to sort out next year's funding.

Stop being partisan pricks and do what's right. Pass this and start the fight over the real budget

 

[BigHornRam]

This has hit the silly point. We are arguing over a 6 to 7 month CR, vs a couple shorter ones? Dumb. This one reduces spending overall, and allows both sides time to sort out next year's funding.

Stop being partisan pricks and do what's right. Pass this and start the fight over the real budget

Framework for the real budget has already passed the house.

Roll Call 50 Roll Call 50, Bill Number: H. Con. Res. 14, 119th Congress, 1st Session

VOTE QUESTION: On Agreeing to the Resolution, as Amended, DESCRIPTION: Establishing the congressional budget for the United States Government for fiscal year 2025 and setting forth the appropriate budgetary levels for fiscal years 2026 through 2034, VOTE TYPE: Yea-And-Nay, STATUS: Passed

clerk.house.gov

 

[SAJ-99]

Framework for the real budget has already passed the house.

Roll Call 50 Roll Call 50, Bill Number: H. Con. Res. 14, 119th Congress, 1st Session

VOTE QUESTION: On Agreeing to the Resolution, as Amended, DESCRIPTION: Establishing the congressional budget for the United States Government for fiscal year 2025 and setting forth the appropriate budgetary levels for fiscal years 2026 through 2034, VOTE TYPE: Yea-And-Nay, STATUS: Passed

clerk.house.gov

But that budget increases the deficit, which is why the CR is necessary. The only way the House got the budget through was to make up numbers on growth side. Bessent was complaining about the CBO estimates in an interview today. There needs to be some interesting math to get any long term budget passed.

 

[BigHornRam]

But that budget increases the deficit, which is why the CR is necessary. The only way the House got the budget through was to make up numbers on growth side. Bessent was complaining about the CBO estimates in an interview today. There needs to be some interesting math to get any long term budget passed.

So now you are finally agreeing with Masse and Paul? Hell just froze over!

 

[Bonasababy]

This has hit the silly point. We are arguing over a 6 to 7 month CR, vs a couple shorter ones? Dumb. This one reduces spending overall, and allows both sides time to sort out next year's funding.

Stop being partisan pricks and do what's right. Pass this and start the fight over the real budget

Don't disagree, my worry is that Dems are saying just approve it grab some popcorn and sit back and watch things implode. One of the things concerning many is a sizable increase in military funding without detail on what that will be used for. Given who is in charge we all should be worried about that--not the increase in military on its face but the why and what for.

Both sides bear a lot of blame. Backing way up, no other developed country has these routine battles on their funding, it's ridiculous and used more for political fodder and bombs lobbed back and forth than anything that has helped limit spending.

 

[rjthehunter]

Obama did not have every economist, corporate leaders and more warning him about what his DIRECT actions are doing to the economy.

Even Rupert Murdoch's Wall Street Journal called out, saying Trump is engaging in "the dumbest trade war in history" and Trump "sounds as if the US shouldn't import anything at all, that America can be a perfectly closed economy making everything at home. This is called autarky, and isn't the world we live in, or one that we should want to live in, as Mr. Trump may soon find out".

So now we stray away from the data that you used previously and stray to "what people are saying".

America shouldn't rely so heavily on other countries to get what we need. We just learned this from the Covid era that we're still catching up from? I'm not saying we need to make 100% of everything, but we should be more self reliant than we currently are. I think every American wins if we become more self-sustaining.

 

[SAJ-99]

So now you are finally agreeing with Masse and Paul? Hell just froze over!

Rand is still an idiot, but it falls into the “blind squirrel finds nut” category.
This is from a few days ago and about 100 S&P points.

 

[SAJ-99]

I think every American wins if we become more self-sustaining.

So now we have to go off what you "think"?

Nothing wrong with the concept, but it doesn't happen fast. Even then we have to ignore how we got to this point and all the benefits we received from it. Regarding change, it would take 5 years to get a new aluminum plant operational. Ask Americans to open their wallets. And if Americans in four years are sick of paying high prices for goods, they vote in a new guy/gal that wants to do that they "think" will work better and they have to scrap the Aluminum plant because it can be bought cheaper from anywhere else.

 

[Beignet]

I’ve mentioned it before and will again since SAJ and BigHorn are talking metals…

Anecdotal data on what I know. We buy literal tons of domestic milled aluminum annually, both coiled flat sheet and extrusions. Mills are currently quoting a 10-12% price increase in the next 30 days and more to come after that. Last go around with tariffs our end product prices nearly doubled, but eventually stabilized to about 25% more than pre-tariff where they’ve since remained somewhat steady until recently.

Our ultimate consumer is state and federal taxpayers since this aluminum is used on publicly funded highway construction projects. Those price increases are passed right on to the end of the line.

Not many new mills came on line during last round of tariffs, I doubt more will this time around.

One recent Economist article stated that “[Domestic steel and aluminum production barely budged the last time around].” It went on to say “In February Bill Oplinger, boss of Alcoa, another big aluminium producer, said that the tariffs would not be enough to entice his company to reopen facilities in America, arguing that electricity prices were a bigger constraint. Mr Oplinger added that it was difficult to make decisions “without knowing how long the tariffs will last”, because his firm plans on “a horizon of 20 to 40 years”.*

Also, you guys gotta stop watching all that network news as entertainment garbage.

*”Trump’s metals tariffs will cost American industry dearly” from March 11, 2025 - The Economist

 

[TOGIE]

there's pretty much unanimous agreement from everyone but the bleach drinkers that these tariffs will basically do nothing but harm from multiple angles be they geopolitical or economic.

somehow the economic woes will still be blamed on a biden and/or attributed to external factors beyond anyone's control. wild times. maybe it's just par for the course.

 

[Treeshark]

Elections are decided by a fickle 10% of the population, I wouldn’t discount their distaste for seeing their 401ks implode.

 

[Bonasababy]

Elections are decided by a fickle 10% of the population, I wouldn’t discount their distaste for seeing their 401ks implode.

Or price for vehicles. Or food. Or the farmers losing millions from cancelled contracts to sell their products through US AID....

People don't have a memory or sense of where we got to where we are with supplies and prices. The Walmarts and big box stores were able to drive down prices due to drawing from a WORLD market where they have some ability to find their wares more cheaply.

The prices are going up for lots of things. Suppliers of those things from other countries are going to find other markets for their products, buyers of our products are going to find other non US suppliers--the impact of this is not temporary, it's years.

 

[Bonasababy]

I thought external factors didn't matter? It's solely the presidents fault.

Look at the S&P 500, I'm not seeing anything out of the ordinary. A 8% dip since mid Feb is nothing to get your shorts in a knot over. Just buy the dip.

In the last year, it's up 8.4%. Not the end of the world like some people are acting like.

The first segue into this area was when someone made the completely inaccurate assertion that Obama led us into a recession, when in fact the market soared up during his administration.

Then some folks cherry picked a tiny time period of decline at the beginning of Obama's term totally forgetting that he was handed that by the Bush administration.

And now we are supposed to accept that the recovering economy with strong metrics all over the place that Trump inherited is to be ignored while Trumps DIRECT actions are creating a crisis for the economy and sending it down--a direction that CEO's, economists, and nearly everyone who doesn't get drunk on MAGA Kool Aid every day agrees is disastrous for the country.

I will agree with anyone who says the economy isn't gone yet, if only the administration would drastically change course.The faith that someone in charge would do that would be high if it weren't for the unique mental disorder the president suffers from, the inability to admit wrongdoing--and (so far) the inability of all his followers to challenge him.

 

[BigHornRam]

I’ve mentioned it before and will again since SAJ and BigHorn are talking metals…

Anecdotal data on what I know. We buy literal tons of domestic milled aluminum annually, both coiled flat sheet and extrusions. Mills are currently quoting a 10-12% price increase in the next 30 days and more to come after that. Last go around with tariffs our end product prices nearly doubled, but eventually stabilized to about 25% more than pre-tariff where they’ve since remained somewhat steady until recently.

Our ultimate consumer is state and federal taxpayers since this aluminum is used on publicly funded highway construction projects. Those price increases are passed right on to the end of the line.

Not many new mills came on line during last round of tariffs, I doubt more will this time around.

One recent Economist article stated that “[Domestic steel and aluminum production barely budged the last time around].” It went on to say “In February Bill Oplinger, boss of Alcoa, another big aluminium producer, said that the tariffs would not be enough to entice his company to reopen facilities in America, arguing that electricity prices were a bigger constraint. Mr Oplinger added that it was difficult to make decisions “without knowing how long the tariffs will last”, because his firm plans on “a horizon of 20 to 40 years”.*

Also, you guys gotta stop watching all that network news as entertainment garbage.

*”Trump’s metals tariffs will cost American industry dearly” from March 11, 2025 - The Economist

True.

Aluminum plants need cheap, and plentiful electricity.

Baucus, Tester Press BPA to Renegotiate Energy Prices with CFAC - Flathead Beacon

I touched on this briefly in my story about the shutdown of the Columbia Falls Aluminum Company, but U.S. Sens. Max Baucus and Jon Tester are calling on the Bonneville power Administration to renegotiate its power contract with CFAC. A Dec. 17 Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals decision ruled that...

flatheadbeacon.com

Status of the property today.

EPA releases plan for cleanup of Columbia Falls Superfund site

Local grassroots group says the plan doesn’t do enough to protect the community.

montanafreepress.org

I am okay with Canada making beer cans for us.