Quick thoughts on non resident random draw

[oilcan]

I don’t look at the stats in all the units but I have noticed an increase in the people putting in for the special draw in the units I usually apply in. In my Antelope unit in the special 3 points was 100% last year this year 4 points was only 67%. I would be curious to know if the overall number of people applying for the special draw has increased or decreased.

 

[jnd1959]

We applied for a mid tier unit with 5.5 points that has been a solid 100% for the last five years. This year point creep pushed it up a point. The unit went from a 100% odds unit to a 3% random unit. I feared this but decided we would hold fast. We will try the same unit next year and continue until we draw. I suspect that while point creep will continue for top tier units, lower tiers will go through boom/bust point cycles.

On another note, I use GoHunt. There is a lot more information in those draw odds and articles than just the past history. You've got to dig through it and compile some numbers. Honestly, I wish GoHunt would allow me to put in my preference and bonus points for an animal in each state and let me query across borders. I have 9 in WY and 2 in Colorado. If I could query by species and see all unit odds across the west, that would be a big help for me.

Naturally, the online services are a game changer. But you can factor that in if you pull the information together. This year I gave us about a 55% chance of drawing based on the number of tags and preference points out there.

I also wish the states would provide more information. Give me the raw point data for a species for the past five years along with hunter age and whether they bought a point or attempted a draw and I could do some serious statistical projections.

 

[lr123]

I didn't use goHunt this year and still had 26 as my second choice behind a longshot unit that requires 8 or 9PP's. I ended up with two type 6 tags for 26 and might see if I can pick up another doe tag in another unit. I'm looking forward to the hunt but was very surprised once I saw the numbers this year compared to last year.

 

[mtnprst]

Overall NR applications continue to increase. Nation-wide statistics indicate a decline in the overall numbers, and these two trends would seem to oppose each other.

What makes them both possible is the huge hunting industry marketing of western-state big game hunting.

A quick recollection is that in 2017 Wyoming fielded around 50,000 elk hunters (residents), and the same year Pennsylvania fielded 850K deer hunters - which was a surprising number.

Idaho is currently considering a new rule which would allow its Commission to limit the number of nonresident elk/deer OTC tag sales over concerns about overcrowding during the general season brought forward by residents. I've never hunted in CO, but that state gives 35% of its elk tags to non-residents, and CO residents have told me in some areas it seems that state is taken over by Texas in the fall.

 

[unclemoe]

I think point creep will get worse over all for a few more years, Im from Illinois, unfortunately, and lots of people i know who hunt are, land owners who use to give access to hunters no longer due for various reasons, most being liability.... so those who want to keep hunting need to moved to public land. well in my crap hole state there little public land and that public land is packed. last time i hunted a weekend on Illinois public land i could see 3 or 4 other hunters from my stand..... and what do you know no one saw a deer....

additional thought: for me when applying for both my Wisco Bear tag and lope tag i waited till i have at least one more point then i needed to apply this year the lope unit i needed 2 historically and bear i needed 3 so i waited till i had 3 lope points and 4 bear to make sure i could draw, time off for me and alot of people is hard now and i have to put in for my vacation in sept of the year prior so i wanted to make my odds the best they could be, this could be a reason as well for the creep alot less people playing the odds and alot more looking for a sure thing.

 

[MTGomer]

Mountain Pursuit did some research into the "goHunt Effect" focused on Arizona Mule Deer OTC Tags and all the attention given to them by website movies, blogs, podcasts, etc.

We define the "goHunt Effect" not only by the availability of tag strategy websites like gohunt, but also tag application strategies distributed in blogs, articles, podcasts, and forums like hunttalk.com, etc. The "goHunt Effect" also includes marketing, articles, hunting movies, and all media which bring attention to a specific hunt area, species or tag. We found 30+ articles, blogs, movies, podcasts, etc. highlighting the nonresident Arizona OTC deer tags.

From 2014-2018 Arizona Resident OTC Dec/Jan deer tag sales increased 39.8%.

Non-Resident OTC Arizona deer tag sales increased 143%.

Click HERE for the full article.

Arizona GF will convert a unit to draw if archery harvest gets too high. That is the downside of the marketing of Arizona by almost everyone. This has happened on the Kaibab, 3a/3c, and now Unit 1.

I see no reason not to offer OTC tags for coues. Success rates are so low and there’s so many deer.
The more heavily hunted coues border units should not be OTC for mule deer in my opinion. Development on the valley floors is taking up much of their habitat and they are just easier to kill than coues. With all the additional hunters in the area, mostly looking for coues, I wonder what the incidental harvest of mule deer is.

The promotion of Arizona mule deer hunting will eventually kill the OTC opportunity in more units than it already has. It’s just a matter of time.

AZGF doesn’t seem to hesitate to do what’s right for the resource.