Month Out....

ThunderNocked

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 3, 2020
Messages
337
Location
North Pole, Alaska
Yeah I heard last year or the year before 20b here in the Fairbanks area had around 1000 baits. All along the ATV trails and within a walk of the road.
I do need to try to find that map and look into it more. I really do want to try to establish a bait but would like to avoid the clusters for sure.

mill see if I can find and confirm that number for 20b
 

KayakMacGyver

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 8, 2018
Messages
162
Kind of strange to have not seen more chatter/buzz about the drawing. It is traditionally today, right?
 

mdhunter

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 13, 2009
Messages
1,168
Location
Maryland
@npaden I'm not a statistician, and don't pretend to be one. I think you can calculate the odds similar to a rafle, which is by taking 1 minus the odds of not winning^ number of chances you applied. So it would be 1-((1-(170/1261))^6) = about 58%. Odds may be higher though, because after each one wins, they can't draw again and their chances are removed from the pile... and I'm not smart enough to figure that next step, and may not even be smart enough to figure out the first step. :D
I send out a ton of applications in various states and then shrug my shoulders and think “the odds are 100 or 0 for me”, lol.
 

KayakMacGyver

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 8, 2018
Messages
162
Reckon I get to squeeze a little more value out of my application money in the form of anticipation/dreaming. Site is down for me on all devices.
 

wllm1313

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 9, 2015
Messages
10,911
Location
Manetheren
I didn't draw so curious if you did. I searched a couple of guys that I know named Randy and both were successful on SE Alaska bear tags for 2022. I don't know your name so I couldn't search for you.
Nope nada for anything.

But my resident buddy had some serious karma built up and I'm planning on once again going up as a packer.

2 Kenai goat tags to fill and an 827 Caribou tag.
 

TheGreek

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 14, 2017
Messages
201
Location
Chicago
Kupreanof Black Bear tags for my brother and I! First time drawing an out of state tag and we are both stoked to visit AK for the first time and finally see first hand what Randy has shown in his videos!
That was supposed to be my tag! Congrats man. Are you guys staying at a lodge or forest service cabin or planning on tent camping?
 

KayakMacGyver

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 8, 2018
Messages
162
Kupreanof Black Bear tags for my brother and I! First time drawing an out of state tag and we are both stoked to visit AK for the first time and finally see first hand what Randy has shown in his videos!
Congrats @Young Buck. Wife and I are headed to Kupe May 11-18, 2021. Everything I hear says it'll be a great time with or without bears!
 

Young Buck

Member
Joined
Sep 13, 2016
Messages
47
That was supposed to be my tag! Congrats man. Are you guys staying at a lodge or forest service cabin or planning on tent camping?
Thanks! Like many other hunt talkers before us, my bro and I will be staying at Calder Mtn Lodge. May 17-24. It’s our first time up there so logistically it made sense to stay at the lodge.
 
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